000
FXUS61 KOKX 101444
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure tracks away from the area and into Maine today.
High pressure builds into the Southeast on Monday and over the
Atlantic on Tuesday. A frontal system may impact the area by
the end of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The surface low pressure continues to move northeast away from
the area today. Forecast remains on track.

The next round of pcpn is this aftn and eve as the airmass
becomes unstable and the upr low approaches then tracks over the
area. Maintained the sct wording in the fcst. Shwrs possibly
transitioning to shsn with some ice pellets possible as well.
Cannot rule out isold lightning strikes.

Dropping temps late in the day with increasing W winds. H85
winds increase thru the day, reaching about 40kt by 00Z Mon.
Sct-bkn clouds in the 4000-5000ft range should be a limiting
factor for gust potential. As a result, expect winds to remain
blw advy lvls today.

Winds aloft gradually increase Sun ngt, but time of day and
remaining high based low clouds should be at least subtle
limiting factors. Have not issues a wind advy as a result.

Temps today a mix of the NBM and NAMnest. The NBM was used tngt.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds aloft increase further on Mon. By 00Z Tues, the NAM
indicates over 60 kt at H85. With a well mixed and deep NW flow
along with strong subsidence, this should set the table for
over-performance of winds. Because of this, a high wind watch
has been issued for the entire area.

Despite the cold airmass, the deep mixing will allow for highs
aoa normal. Wind chills however mainly in the 30s for the day.
The NBM was used for temps.

Ridging then begins to build in late Mon ngt into Tue. This
will allow for the winds to finally begin to come down after
midnight.

For Tue, lighter winds and the start of a warming trend can be
expected. After wind chills Mon ngt in the 20s and lower 30s,
the NBM yields highs in the lower 60s for the usual swrn hot
spots. These numbers were accepted for the fcst.

Dry wx Mon-Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* A warming trend takes place.

For midweek, in response to the digging and amplification of
the upstream trough over the Rockies a ridge builds across the
East. This will lead to a warming trend with temperatures
averaging well above normal for the mid and late week period
with dry conditions.

The trough will approach late in the week and likely bring
another round of unsettled weather in the form of rain late
Friday and Saturday with the arrival of low pressure and its
associated occluded / cold front. There are differences in
timing and in the handling of the Pacific branch and any
potential interaction with the pure southern branch of the jet.
Thus chose to take a consensus blend, which the NBM seemed
reasonable with respect to PoPs for Friday and Saturday.

The greatest deal of uncertainty deals with temperatures for
Wednesday through Friday. By Thursday max temperatures are
likely to get into the 60s across a good portion of the area,
particularly away from the coast. If more of a westerly
component to the wind develops closer to the surface, then
temperatures could get even warmer than currently advertised.
Some 70s therefore are a possibility away from the coast later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Deepening low pressure continues to lift north of the area through
this afternoon and moves up along the Canadian border this
evening. The low will track slowly east and northeast tonight
into Monday.

Ceilings have generally improved to VFR, but pockets of MVFR remain.
There will be the chance of brief MVFR conditions this afternoon
into early this evening in mainly scattered rain showers, with
scattered snow showers possible across mainly western most
terminals.

Winds shift to the WNW this morning and gradually ramp up through
tonight, with stronger winds and gusts coming tonight with gusts
mostly around 35 kt, and occasionally near 40 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are possible this afternoon and early this evening to
refine timing of showers with brief and non-prevailing MVFR
conditions.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR. W/NW winds 20-25kt gusts near 35-40kt. A few gusts 45-
50kt possible.

Monday night: VFR. NW winds near 20 kt in the evening with gusts up
to 40 kt, eventually decreasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25kt late.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.

Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Solid sca winds can be expected today, increasing to gale tngt
and remaining thru Mon ngt. There is the potential for a few
gusts to storm force on Mon. Winds and seas subside Tue, with
all waters blw sca criteria by Tue ngt.

More tranquil conditions are expected towards Wednesday and
much of Thursday with light winds and ocean seas closer to 2 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Although any pcpn amounts will be light today, some residual
flooding of rivers and streams can be expected.

No hydrologic impacts are expected tngt thru Fri.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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The high tide cycle this morning will mark the last of the
coastal flooding. Coastal flood Warnings for southern Nassau and
southern Queens have been converted to an advisory, and
advisories for Long Island Sound have been dropped.

Advisories are in effect for areas adjacent to NY Harbor,
including tidally affected rivers (Hackensack, Passaic, and
locations along the Hudson), and all of the south shore of Long
Island.

A westerly flow should help to lower water levels across Long
Island Sound, however, with a SE swell and high seas on the
ocean, water will struggle to get out of NY Harbor and the south
shore back bays of Long Island. There is always some uncertainty
with the extent of this type of flooding as trapped water sloshes
around in the bays and harbor. Preference at this time was to
lean toward an ETSS and NYHOPS mean. The PETSS seems to be on
the high side of guidance in a strengthening west flow. However,
there is still the chance for localized moderate flooding
across the south shore back bays, in particular across southern
Nassau County.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     CTZ005>012.
NY...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ072-
     074-075-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ080-081.
NJ...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NJZ006-
     104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/MW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE/DW
MARINE...JMC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...