000
FXUS61 KOKX 101739
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
139 PM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks away from the area and into Maine today.
High pressure builds into the Southeast on Monday and over the
Atlantic on Tuesday. A frontal system may impact the area by
the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The surface low pressure continues to move northeast away from
the area today. Forecast remains on track.
Some instability showers have developed to the west as the
upper level low pivots overhead this afternoon and evening.
Scattered rain showers, possibly mixed with snow or graupel,
push through this afternoon and into the evening. Showers push
east and dissipate after sunset as instability drops with the
lack of daytime surface heating.
Dropping temps late in the day with increasing W winds. H85
winds increase thru the day, reaching about 40kt by 00Z Mon.
Sct-bkn clouds in the 4000-5000ft range should be a limiting
factor for gust potential. As a result, expect winds to remain
blw advy lvls today.
Winds aloft gradually increase tonight, but time of day and
remaining high based low clouds should be at least subtle
limiting factors. Have not issued a wind advy as a result.
Temps today a mix of the NBM and NAMnest. The NBM was used tngt.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds aloft increase further on Mon. By 00Z Tues, the NAM
indicates over 60 kt at H85. With a well mixed and deep NW flow
along with strong subsidence, this should set the table for
over-performance of winds. Because of this, a high wind watch
has been issued for the entire area.
Despite the cold airmass, the deep mixing will allow for highs
aoa normal. Wind chills however mainly in the 30s for the day.
The NBM was used for temps.
Ridging then begins to build in late Mon ngt into Tue. This
will allow for the winds to finally begin to come down after
midnight.
For Tue, lighter winds and the start of a warming trend can be
expected. After wind chills Mon ngt in the 20s and lower 30s,
the NBM yields highs in the lower 60s for the usual swrn hot
spots. These numbers were accepted for the fcst.
Dry wx Mon-Tue.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
* A warming trend takes place.
For midweek, in response to the digging and amplification of
the upstream trough over the Rockies a ridge builds across the
East. This will lead to a warming trend with temperatures
averaging well above normal for the mid and late week period
with dry conditions.
The trough will approach late in the week and likely bring
another round of unsettled weather in the form of rain late
Friday and Saturday with the arrival of low pressure and its
associated occluded / cold front. There are differences in
timing and in the handling of the Pacific branch and any
potential interaction with the pure southern branch of the jet.
Thus chose to take a consensus blend, which the NBM seemed
reasonable with respect to PoPs for Friday and Saturday.
The greatest deal of uncertainty deals with temperatures for
Wednesday through Friday. By Thursday max temperatures are
likely to get into the 60s across a good portion of the area,
particularly away from the coast. If more of a westerly
component to the wind develops closer to the surface, then
temperatures could get even warmer than currently advertised.
Some 70s therefore are a possibility away from the coast later
in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Deepening low pressure continues to lift north of the area this
afternoon and moves up along the Canadian border this evening.
The low will track slowly east and northeast tonight into
Monday.
VFR prevails, however pockets of MVFR remain this afternoon
into early this evening in mainly scattered rain showers, with
scattered snow showers possible across mainly western most
terminals.
Winds shift to the WNW this morning and gradually ramp up through
tonight, with stronger winds and gusts coming tonight with gusts
mostly around 35 kt, and occasionally near 40 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are possible this afternoon and early this evening to
refine timing of showers with brief and non-prevailing MVFR
conditions.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon: VFR. W/NW winds 20-25kt gusts near 35-40kt. A few
gusts 45-50kt possible.
Monday night: VFR. NW winds near 20 kt in the evening with gusts up
to 40 kt, eventually decreasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25kt late.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.
Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.
Friday: sub VFR possible in SHRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Solid sca winds can be expected today, increasing to gale tngt
and remaining thru Mon ngt. There is the potential for a few
gusts to storm force on Mon. Winds and seas subside Tue, with
all waters blw sca criteria by Tue ngt.
More tranquil conditions are expected towards Wednesday and
much of Thursday with light winds and ocean seas closer to 2 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Although any pcpn amounts will be light today, some residual
flooding of rivers and streams can be expected.
No hydrologic impacts are expected tngt thru Fri.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
CTZ005>012.
NY...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/MW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JMC