000
FXUS61 KOKX 101944
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure continues to push away to the northeast as high
pressure builds into the area through the middle of the week.
Low pressure and an associated frontal system will approach on
Friday, pass through Friday night, and then move east on
Saturday. Another frontal system may approach on Sunday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Scattered showers of rain potentially mixed with snow or graupel
continue to move through the area from west to east as the core of
the upper level low slides overhead. These instability showers will
gradually diminish into this evening with the lack of daytime
surface heating.

As the surface low pushes to the northeast tonight and into
tomorrow, high pressure will build in from the west allowing the
pressure gradient to strengthen. This will allow winds at the top of
the BL to increase tonight. Ample CAA tonight should allow for the
mixing down of some of this wind late tonight and into early Monday.
Some of the gusts overnight could approach 50 mph, especially for
areas inland to the north and west.

Lows tonight will be in the low 30s for most. Middle to upper 20s
are more likely for inland areas to the north and west. Wind will
however make the apparent temperature feel like the teens and low
20s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The pressure gradient continues to tighten over the area on Monday.
Additional daytime heating through partly cloudy skies will allow
for a deeper mixed layer to develop during the day on Monday,
especially into the afternoon. This will allow for much of the the
near 50kt winds at the top of the BL to mix down to the surface.
Wind gusts for the entire area will range from 40 to 50 mph. Some
higher elevations or areas where more sun can break out during the
midday may be able to mix down gusts upwards of 55 or 60 mph, but
these stronger gusts should remain isolated enough to not warrant a
High Wind Warning. Confidence in widespread Wind Advisory gusts is
high for the entire area so a Wind Advisory has been issued and is
in effect through Monday evening.

Despite strong W/WNW winds and CAA, temperatures should be able to
rise into the middle to upper 40s for much of the area. The strong
winds will make the temperatures feel like they`re in the 30s.

Winds subside after sunset on Monday evening as high pressure
becomes more established over the area and the pressure gradient
lessens. There may still be occasional gusts upwards of 30-40 mph
Monday evening but they will continue to diminish overnight and into
early Tuesday morning. Lows Monday night will be in the 30s with the
warmer spots in and around the NYC metro.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A mild period shaping up for mid to late week as quasi-zonal
flow/broad upper ridging slides across, with any cold air bottled up
well to the north in Canada. High temps especially on Wed/Thu should
reach the 60s across the NYC metro area and across the interior,
with cooler 50s for south/east facing shorelines of central/eastern
portions of Long Island and southern CT. Lower 70s not out of the
question on Thu for urban NE NJ.

High temps on Fri are less certain as low pressure passes to the
north and drags a cold front close to the area. If the front holds
off, temps on Fri could be nearly as mild as those of Wed/Thu. If
the front make it through, temps may not climb out of the 50s, which
of course is still above normal for mid March. At any rate, rain
chances start to increase Fri afternoon, becoming likely Fri night
with the passage of this system.

Zonal flow continues into the weekend, perhaps carrying another
frontal system toward the area on Sunday. Exact timing is uncertain,
so fcst carries a low 20-30 PoP for Sat and higher 30-40 PoP for
Sunday. Temps gradually trend closer to normal by Sunday, but should
still be a few degrees above normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Deepening low pressure continues to lift north of the area and moves
up along the Canadian border this evening. The low will track slowly
east and northeast tonight into Monday.

VFR prevails, however pockets of MVFR remain into early this evening
in mainly scattered rain showers, with scattered snow showers
mainly across mainly western most terminals.

Winds continue to ramp up through tonight, with stronger winds and
gusts coming tonight with gusts mostly around 35 kt, and
occasionally near 40 kt. The winds peak by Monday morning and
continue through the day with winds 20-27G35-40kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are possible through the first half of this evening with
showers with brief / non-prevailing MVFR conditions.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon: VFR. W/NW winds 20-27G35-40kt. Peak gusts of 40-
45kt.

Monday night: VFR. NW winds near 20 kt in the evening with gusts up
to 40 kt early, eventually decreasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25kt
late.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.

Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.

Friday: sub VFR possible in SHRA, especially late.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Gale force winds are expected on all waters this evening and through
the day on Monday. Widespread wind gusts of 35-45 kt are likely
Monday afternoon and into the evening. There is a potential of
isolated storm force gusts on the waters Monday afternoon into the
early evening. Winds then gradually subside Monday night to below
Small craft on the non-ocean waters by early Tuesday morning.

SCA cond will linger on the ocean into daytime Tue, with W flow
gusting to 25-30 kt and seas 4-6 ft. Then quiet cond expected for
the most part with high pressure in control. Can`t totally rule out
SCA cond on the ocean Fri night as low pressure approaches and
passes nearby.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Although any pcpn amounts will be light today, some residual
flooding of rivers and streams can be expected.

No hydrologic impacts are expected tngt thru Fri.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW