000
FXUS61 KOKX 102202
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
602 PM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will continue to move away to the northeast as high
pressure builds into the area through mid week. Low pressure
and an associated frontal system will approach on Friday, pass
through Friday night, and then move east on Saturday. Another
frontal system may approach on Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Scattered showers of rain mixed with snow or graupel continue
to move through west to east as the core of the upper level low
slides overhead. These instability showers will gradually
diminish into this evening with the lack of daytime surface
heating.
Winds with an accompanying shift to the NW have already gusted
up to 35-40 kt across NYC and Long Island. Later tonight, as
the surface low moves to the northeast, high pressure will build
from the west, allowing the pressure gradient to strengthen.
This will allow winds at the top of the BL to increase tonight.
Ample CAA tonight should allow for the mixing down of some of
this wind late tonight and into early Monday. Some of the gusts
overnight could approach 50 mph, especially for areas inland to
the north and west.
Lows tonight will be in the lower 30s for most. Mid and upper
20s are more likely for inland areas to the north and west. Wind
will however make the apparent temperature feel like the teens
and lower 20s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The pressure gradient continues to tighten over the area on
Monday. Additional daytime heating through partly cloudy skies
will allow for a deeper mixed layer to develop during the day
on Monday, especially into the afternoon. This will allow for
much of the the near 50kt winds at the top of the BL to mix down
to the surface. Wind gusts for the entire area will range from
40 to 50 mph. Some higher elevations or areas where more sun can
break out during the midday may be able to mix down gusts
upwards of 55 or 60 mph, but these stronger gusts should remain
isolated enough to not warrant a High Wind Warning. Confidence
in widespread Wind Advisory gusts is high for the entire area so
a Wind Advisory has been issued and is in effect through Monday
evening.
Despite strong W/WNW winds and CAA, temperatures should be able
to rise into the middle to upper 40s for much of the area. The
strong winds will make the temperatures feel like they`re in
the 30s.
Winds subside after sunset on Monday evening as high pressure
becomes more established over the area and the pressure gradient
lessens. There may still be occasional gusts upwards of 30-40
mph Monday evening but they will continue to diminish overnight
and into early Tuesday morning. Lows Monday night will be in the
30s, with the warmer spots in and around the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A mild period shaping up for mid to late week as quasi-zonal
flow/broad upper ridging slides across, with any cold air
bottled up well to the north in Canada. High temps especially
on Wed/Thu should reach the 60s across the NYC metro area and
across the interior, with cooler 50s for south/east facing
shorelines of central/eastern portions of Long Island and
southern CT. Lower 70s not out of the question on Thu for urban
NE NJ.
High temps on Fri are less certain as low pressure passes to the
north and drags a cold front close to the area. If the front
holds off, temps on Fri could be nearly as mild as those of
Wed/Thu. If the front make it through, temps may not climb out
of the 50s, which of course is still above normal for mid March.
At any rate, rain chances start to increase Fri afternoon,
becoming likely Fri night with the passage of this system.
Zonal flow continues into the weekend, perhaps carrying another
frontal system toward the area on Sunday. Exact timing is
uncertain, so fcst carries a low 20-30 PoP for Sat and higher
30-40 PoP for Sunday. Temps gradually trend closer to normal by
Sunday, but should still be a few degrees above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Deepening low pressure continues to lift north of the area and
moves up along the Canadian border this evening. The low will
track slowly east and northeast tonight into Monday.
VFR prevails, however pockets of MVFR remain into early this
evening in mainly scattered rain showers, with scattered snow
showers mainly across mainly western most terminals.
Winds continue to ramp up through tonight, with stronger winds
and gusts coming tonight with gusts mostly around 35 kt, and
occasionally near 40 kt. The winds peak by Monday morning and
continue through the day with winds 20-27G35-40kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are possible through the first half of this evening
with showers with brief / non-prevailing MVFR conditions.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon: VFR. W/NW winds 20-27G35-40kt. Peak gusts of
40-45kt.
Monday night: VFR. NW winds near 20 kt in the evening with gusts
up to 40 kt early, eventually decreasing to 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25kt late.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.
Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.
Friday: sub VFR possible in SHRA, especially late.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Gale force winds are expected on all waters through Monday
evening. Widespread wind gusts of 35-45 kt are likely Monday
afternoon and evening. There is a potential of isolated storm
force gusts on the waters Monday afternoon into the early
evening. Winds then gradually subside Monday night to below
Small craft on the non-ocean waters by early Tuesday morning.
SCA cond will linger on the ocean into daytime Tue, with W flow
gusting to 25-30 kt and seas 4-6 ft. Then quiet cond expected
for the most part with high pressure in control. Can`t totally
rule out SCA cond on the ocean Fri night as low pressure
approaches and passes nearby.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Although any pcpn amounts will be light today, some residual
flooding of rivers and streams can be expected. Otherwise, no
further hydrologic impacts expected thru Fri.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW