000
FXUS61 KOKX 111123
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
723 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure tracks slowly eastward across the Canadian
Maritimes today. Meanwhile, high pressure builds into the area
through mid week. A frontal system will impact the area on Friday,
with high pressure attempting to build in behind it for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This main impact today will be strong west winds on the
backside of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. Deep
mixing today with winds at the top of the mixed layer around
50kt, and on average about 40 kt within the layer, will result
in sustained WNW winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts of 45 to 55
mph. An isolated gust up to 60 mph can`t be ruled out during the
late morning and afternoon hours. A Wind Advisory remains up
for the entire area until 11 PM. While temperatures will be
close to normal with high in the mid to upper 40s, wind chill
values will be in the 20s and 30s.
Winds begin to gradually back down this evening, dropping below
advisory levels before midnight. A weak ridge axis extending
north from high pressure over the central and southern Appalachians
approaches from the west tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure works in from the west through
Wednesday with winds continuing to subside during the period.
West winds on Tuesday will gust up to around 20 mph, but then
really fall of Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Expect dry conditions, as ridging both aloft and at the surface
builds into the area, In addition, warm advection through the
period allows for a significant warmup through mid week,
especially for locations inland and away from the immediate
coast. Highs on Tuesday will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer with
interior locations further warming heading into Wednesday with
highs well into the 60s. Coastal areas will be mainly in the
50s during this time. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid
30s tonight, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upr ridge will be established over the region Wed ngt and Thu. Abv
normal temps. Lows Thu mrng close to normal highs for the date NYC
area and points N and W. Weak onshore flow off the cold water will
keep other areas a little cooler.
H85 temps on Thu support lower 70s for highs. Stuck with the NBM
which is cooler for now, especially the ern half of the cwa, but if
wly h85 flow is strong enough, it may be sufficient to hold off the
sea breeze influence and allow even portions of LI to hit 70. Right
now the 00Z GFS suggests h85 winds abv 15 kt don`t arrive until
late, so this would support the much cooler scenario.
Some energy embedded in the ridge may produce a few shwrs late Thu
and Thu ngt, but most of the action looks to be N of the cwa attm
per the GFS.
A cold front is likely to pass on Fri with at least a few shwrs. The
ECMWF supports a more organized low with rain. High chance pops Fri
and likely Fri ngt.
The weekend displays a high amount of uncertainty. Model to model
and run to run consistency is low, with some solns showing high pres
and dry, and others a low pres sys passing thru or offshore. The
blended approach was followed and the NBM used.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deep low pres slowly tracks ewd across the Canadian Maritimes today.
Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. A few shsn could produce MVFR or
lower E of the NYC terminals thru 12Z.
Increasing NW winds today, with a few peak gusts around 50kt
possible especially in the aftn. Winds gradually diminish aft 23-
00Z, but come down more significantly aft 6Z. A few hours
without gusts or with only ocnl gusts possible at the NYC
terminals. Winds then ramp up again aft 12Z Tue with gusts to
around 25kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts this afternoon may be near 50 kt especially at KJFK and
KLGA.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G25kt.
Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Sub VFR possible in SHRA, especially late.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gale Warnings remain in effect for all waters.
A strong pressure gradient between low pressure over the
Canadian Maritimes and high pressure to the west of the area,
will produce gales force winds today into part of tonight.
There could even be an isolated storm force gust late this
morning into this afternoon. Gales will end on the non-ocean
waters before midnight, but not until the early morning hours
Tuesday for the ocean. SCA conditions will follow, persisting
the longest on the ocean into Tuesday afternoon. High pressure
builds in from the west Tuesday night into Wednesday with sub-
SCA conditions.
Winds and seas generally blw sca lvls Thu and Fri. There is an
chance seas could hit 5 ft at times on the ocean Fri. The fcst
is a bit uncertain for the weekend, but there is the potential
for sca cond if low pres passes near the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No further hydrologic impacts expected through the period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW