000
FXUS61 KOKX 111935
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
335 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Strong low pressure continues to track across the Canadian
Maritimes tonight. High pressure builds over the area through
Tuesday night. Weak low pressure then passes through the area
Wednesday into Thursday. A frontal system will impact the area
Thursday night through Friday night. Brief high pressure will
follow, with another low pressure system potentially impacting
the area Sunday night into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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The Wind Advisory remains in effect through 11 pm.
There have been consistent gusts 45 to 55 mph earlier
this morning and afternoon with even some isolated gusts to 60
mph. Winds should start to weaken a bit this evening. Model
soundings support this with the deepest mixing ending around or
just after sunset, which would bring an end to gusts over 45
mph. Will let the evening shift reevaluate the end time of the
Advisory, but it is possible for it to end sooner than 11 pm.
Gusts overnight should average 20-30 mph, with gusts briefly
coming to an end towards day break Tuesday.
Otherwise, the upper low associated with the storm system over
the Maritimes will continue to pull away from New England.
Heights will begin rising overnight with surface high pressure
centered over the southeast states. Mostly clear skies are
expected with lows in the lower to middle 30s inland and middle
to upper 30s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Much milder temperatures will be the main story for Tuesday.
Ridging will continue to build over the northeast as surface
high pressure remains to our south. The recent storm system
will continue moving towards the North Atlantic allowing for a
weaker pressure gradient compared to Monday. There will still be
enough mixing as model soundings indicate about 17-20 kt
average winds in the lower levels. This should equate to gusts
around 20-25 mph through the day.
Temperatures on Tuesday are a bit tricky given full sunshine, a
moderating air mass, and westerly flow. There have been several
occasions in recent years where a modest westerly flow has brought
warmer temperatures than most of the guidance. There is potential
for this to occur again on Tuesday and have gone above most of the
available model blends and MOS. Forecast highs are closer to the
NBM 75 percentile which yields highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s across much of the area with middle 60s in NE NJ and NYC
metro. The westerly flow across Long Island should be enough to
boost temperatures to around 60 degrees. One negating factor to
the warmer temperatures is that the air mass is just beginning
to moderate with easter portions of the area not rising above 0C
at 850 mb until the afternoon. The east end remains coolest in
the lower to middle 50s due to the cooler 850 mb temperatures.
Some high clouds are possible Tuesday night ahead of a weak
shortwave over southeast Canada. Lows will be milder in the upper
30s and lower 40s for most of the region except the NYC metro
where mid to upper 40s are likely.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Well above normal temperatures will continue on Wednesday as
an upper level ridge continues to build over the eastern CONUS
and high pressure generally remains in control at the surface.
Temperatures across much of the area will be warmer than
Tuesday, however a more southerly wind off the cold waters will
keep eastern Long Island and coastal SE CT cooler. Wednesday
into Thursday very weak low pressure may slide southeast towards
our area from the Great Lakes. Some guidance is showing very
light spotty QPF, but keeping the forecast dry for now as
confidence in this is low. Highs on Thursday will be a few
degrees warmer than Wednesday, likely making Thursday the
warmest day of the week.
The second half of the long term forecast looks unsettled. The
latest 12z global guidance is in better agreement on a frontal
system impacting the area Thursday night through Friday night. Some
minor timing and location differences are still seen, as expected.
The GFS is the farthest north with the center of the low, bringing a
warm front through early Friday and a cold front Friday evening.
This system will bring all plain rain to the area. Thereafter model
spread increases. It does look like brief high pressure will build
in on Saturday and at least bring a brief period of dry weather for
the weekend. However, there is then potential for another low
pressure system to pass north of the area and bring unsettled
weather to end the weekend and start next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west into tonight.
VFR. NW winds with frequent gusts 30-40kt and a peak gust or
two around 45kt still possible. Winds diminish this evening
with gusts 25-30kt, then diminishing further overnight with
gusts 20-25kt. Probably a period from approx 09-13z where gusts
subside or are only occasional. Winds then increase thereafter
Tuesday morning with gusts 20-25kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds prevail at or north of 310 magnetic until around 00z, then
at or south of 310 magnetic thereafter. Winds may still back
south of 310 at times before 00z, especially at KEWR. A peak
gust to 45kt still possible before around 00z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday PM: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20-25kt.
Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Sub VFR possible with rain, mainly PM. S-SW gusts
20-25kt.
Saturday: VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt mainly AM.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Gale Warnings remain in effect for all waters. The warning on
the non-ocean waters continues until 11pm and the warning on the
ocean continues till 6 am Tuesday. However, winds may start
subsiding below gales a bit quicker and the warnings could be
cancelled sooner than these expiration times. SCA conditions
will follow, but will persist the longest into Tuesday on the
ocean. These winds likely fall below SCA levels in the
afternoon. Ocean seas remain elevated tonight, but should also
fall below 5 ft Tuesday afternoon. Conditions will then remain
below SCA levels Tuesday night with high pressure building over
the waters.
Winds and waves will generally stay below Small Craft Advisory
criteria Wednesday through early next week. However, a frontal
system is expected to impact the area late this week, with another
low potentially impacting the area heading into early next week.
There is potential for forecast winds and waves to increase with
both of these systems as we get closer.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected through the upcoming weekend at
this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT