000
FXUS61 KOKX 120859
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
459 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Strong low pressure east of Nova Scotia will slowly weaken today
as high pressure builds to the south. Weak low pressure will
pass to the north on Wednesday. A frontal system will impact the
area Thursday night through Friday night. Brief high pressure
should follow for Saturday, followed by low pressure moving
along a frontal boundary on Sunday. A secondary cold front will
follow late Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Winds have backed to the W diminished for the most part for the
time being, but should pick up again late this morning and this
afternoon, gusting to 20-25 mph.
Band of clouds associated with positive H8 theta-E advection and
weak lift from an upper jet streak have expanded into northern
NJ and NYC. Latest RAP shows upper divergence form the jet
streak over the area until about 14Z-15Z, so these clouds could
hang around until then. Otherwise a mostly sunny day expected,
with high temps reaching the mid 60s in urban NE NJ, lower 60s
across much of the rest of the area, and upper 50s across
eastern Long Island and much of southern CT.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Diminishing W-NW should become light/variable overnight tonight,
with skies mostly clear to start, perhaps another band of
clouds moving in from the west overnight well in advance of weak
low pressure that will be to the north daytime Wed. Temps
in/around NYC should fall no lower than 50 ion midtown and the
40s elsewhere, with 30s in the outlying areas. Better
radiational cooling out east should lead to colder temps, with
lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s across SE CT and eastern Long
Island.
With continued WAA Wed should be even warmer than today, with
highs at least to the mid 60s in NYC/Nassau and west of the
Hudson, and around 70 in parts of NE NJ. A developing S flow
will keep temps cooler across most of Long Island and S ST, with
upper 50s/lower 60s in most area, and mid 50s near the shoreline
out east. A weak boundary associated with the weak low to the
north could result in a few afternoon sprinkles in Orange
County.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Ridging sets up along the East coast to begin the period. This
will mainly be in response to a deepening trough out west, which
eventually cuts off into the Southwestern US. Any ridging will
then quickly break down into Friday as the ridge gets replaced
quickly with a trough. The trough deepens into the area Sunday
into Monday.
To begin the period temperatures will average well above normal,
especially farther inland and away any cooler effects from the
ocean. The difficulty with the forecast will be temperatures,
and just how warm it gets on Thursday. Expect a good temperature
contrast on Thursday with respect to interior and coastal
sections. Temperatures away from the coast will push 70 in all
likelihood, but where more of a southerly component to the wind
takes place closer to the coast afternoon temperatures could be
a good 15-20 degrees cooler.
More clouds arrive Thursday night with the approach of a frontal
system. Friday is a rather difficult forecast with timing
differences with shortwave energy among NWP guidance. For now
it appears to be unsettled with a good amount of clouds and the
chance for showers into a portion of Friday night.
There is good agreement that a break takes place with respect to
any unsettled weather to begin the weekend on Saturday as the
frontal system and low pressure moves off to the east with weak
ridging briefly moving back in. Weak impulses along the Gulf
coast then begin to ride northeast along the frontal boundary
later in the weekend. For now it appears that a portion of
Sunday could remain dry. The consensus among the global guidance
is that a wave or a series of weak waves of low pressure ride
along the boundary late Sunday into early Monday morning. During
the day on Monday the boundary should gradually shift off to
the east allowing drier air to work in. A shot of cP air then
arrives Monday night into Tuesday bringing a return to colder
and more seasonable air.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure will settle to the southwest of the area today.
VFR. Winds diminish further as gusts subside and are occasional
for some terminals into the start of the morning push. Winds
then increase later in the morning with gusts 20-25kt. Gusts
should end entirely towards 21Z-22Z Wed.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may end by 1-2 hrs earlier than currently reflected late
this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late tonight through Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Sub VFR possible with rain, mainly PM. S-SW winds G20-25kt.
Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt mainly AM.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA for all waters will expire before daybreak for the
central/western Sound and the bays of Long Island, and
continue into at least this morning elsewhere. By afternoon
stronger winds and higher seas on the ocean will be confined to
E of Fire Island Inlet, while on the non ocean waters SCA
continues for NY Harbor where W-NW flow should gust up to 25 kt.
A few near shore gusts up to 25 kt could occur on parts of the
western Sound and the south shore bays, but do not think
duration will be long enough to warrant continuation of SCA
there.
Winds/seas should be below SCA criteria on all waters by late
this afternoon, continuing into Wed night with a weak onshore
flow developing.
Sub small craft conditions also expected for Thu and Thu night,
with S winds gusting to near 20 kt for portions of the ocean
waters late Thu night. SE winds are then expected on Friday,
followed by wind gusts getting to 25 kt on Sat.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the upcoming weekend at
this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Increasing astronomical tides and diminishing W-NW winds today,
and then a developing onshore flow Wed-Thu, may result in water
levels touching minor flood benchmarks along the SW CT coast and
also along the back bays of Nassau. This could occur as early as
the high tide cycle late tonight along the SW CT coast, but
appears more likely late Wed night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ331-335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ332-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ338-
350.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JE
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/JE
HYDROLOGY...BG/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG