000
FXUS61 KOKX 121730
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
130 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through tonight, then a weak
area of low pressure passes to our north on Wednesday. A
frontal system will impact the area Thursday night through
Friday night. Brief high pressure should follow for Saturday,
followed by low pressure moving along a frontal boundary on
Sunday. A secondary cold front will follow late Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is on track with only minor adjustments to hourly
temperatures and dewpoints with this update.
Surface high pressure builds in with ridging aloft. Sunny
conditions today with WSW winds becoming WNW this afternoon and
gusting 20-25 mph. Given the direction and strength of the winds
this afternoon, no seabreeze development is anticipated, and
thinking is that high temperatures will be higher than most
guidance, as is often the case in late winter/early spring in
setups like this. Based on anticipated temps at the top of the
mixed layer and surface winds, expecting upper 60s in the
typically warmest spots of the city and NE NJ, and lower to
middle 60s in most other locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Diminishing W-NW should become light/variable overnight tonight,
with skies mostly clear to start, perhaps another band of
clouds moving in from the west overnight well in advance of weak
low pressure that will be to the north daytime Wed. Temps
in/around NYC should fall no lower than 50 ion midtown and the
40s elsewhere, with 30s in the outlying areas. Better
radiational cooling out east should lead to colder temps, with
lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s across SE CT and eastern Long
Island.
With continued WAA Wed should be even warmer than today, with
highs at least to the mid 60s in NYC/Nassau and west of the
Hudson, and around 70 in parts of NE NJ. A developing S flow
will keep temps cooler across most of Long Island and S ST, with
upper 50s/lower 60s in most area, and mid 50s near the shoreline
out east. A weak boundary associated with the weak low to the
north could result in a few afternoon sprinkles in Orange
County.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging sets up along the East coast to begin the period. This
will mainly be in response to a deepening trough out west, which
eventually cuts off into the Southwestern US. Any ridging will
then quickly break down into Friday as the ridge gets replaced
quickly with a trough. The trough deepens into the area Sunday
into Monday.
To begin the period temperatures will average well above normal,
especially farther inland and away any cooler effects from the
ocean. The difficulty with the forecast will be temperatures,
and just how warm it gets on Thursday. Expect a good temperature
contrast on Thursday with respect to interior and coastal
sections. Temperatures away from the coast will push 70 in all
likelihood, but where more of a southerly component to the wind
takes place closer to the coast afternoon temperatures could be
a good 15-20 degrees cooler.
More clouds arrive Thursday night with the approach of a frontal
system. Friday is a rather difficult forecast with timing
differences with shortwave energy among NWP guidance. For now
it appears to be unsettled with a good amount of clouds and the
chance for showers into a portion of Friday night.
There is good agreement that a break takes place with respect to
any unsettled weather to begin the weekend on Saturday as the
frontal system and low pressure moves off to the east with weak
ridging briefly moving back in. Weak impulses along the Gulf
coast then begin to ride northeast along the frontal boundary
later in the weekend. For now it appears that a portion of
Sunday could remain dry. The consensus among the global guidance
is that a wave or a series of weak waves of low pressure ride
along the boundary late Sunday into early Monday morning. During
the day on Monday the boundary should gradually shift off to
the east allowing drier air to work in. A shot of cP air then
arrives Monday night into Tuesday bringing a return to colder
and more seasonable air.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure settles to the southwest.
W-NW with gusts 20-25 kt, will gradually diminish this evening,
mainly after 21Z-22Z. Winds become light tonight and will become
more variable after midnight. Winds on Wednesday will be light
to start, then become more southeasterly around 5-10kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional at times through this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wed afternoon - Thursday: VFR.
Friday: MVFR or lower conditions possible in rain, mainly in the
afternoon. S-SW winds 10-15kt.
Saturday: VFR. NW winds around 10kt.
Sunday: Chance of MVFR conditions in rain showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters E of Fire Island
Inlet, with gusts 25-30 kt and seas 4-6 ft, gradually subsiding
through the day. Kept SCA for NY Harbor for this afternoon as
W-NW winds gust up to 25 kt. A few near shore gusts up to 25
kt could occur on parts of the western Sound and the Long Island
south shore bays, with duration too brief to warrant SCA.
Winds/seas should be below SCA criteria on all waters by late
this afternoon, continuing into Wed night with a weak onshore
flow developing.
Sub small craft conditions also expected for Thu and Thu night,
with S winds gusting to near 20 kt for portions of the ocean
waters late Thu night. SE winds are then expected on Friday,
followed by wind gusts getting to 25 kt on Sat.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the upcoming weekend at
this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Increasing astronomical tides and diminishing W-NW winds today,
and then a developing onshore flow Wed-Thu, may result in water
levels touching minor flood benchmarks along the SW CT coast and
also along the back bays of Nassau. This could occur as early as
the high tide cycle late tonight along the SW CT coast, but
appears more likely late Wed night.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...JC/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...