000
FXUS61 KOKX 122249
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
649 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through tonight. A weak area of low
pressure then passes nearby on Wednesday. A frontal system will impact
the area Thursday night through Friday night. Brief high pressure
should follow for Saturday, followed by another low pressure system
passing farther to our north Sunday into Monday. This low will
drag a cold front through the area late Sunday, with a secondary
cold front following late Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Some high clouds can be seen moving in from the west on current
satellite imagery, which is on track with the previous
forecast. Minor adjustments were made to T and Td to capture
current obs and trends. Otherwise, we`ll be on the north side of
a surface ridge stretching in from the south. This will allow
for light to calm winds, which will contribute to radiational
cooling, but may be offset a little by cirrus. Still leaned
closer to a MAV/MET MOS blend in the areas that typically get
stronger radiational cooling, but the warmer NBM was blended in
to hedge for uncertainty of the cirrus coverage.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The flow aloft on Wednesday will be generally anticyclonic, however,
a weak shortwave with surface reflection in the form of a weak
trough or weak low center is progged to be nearby in the late
day/evening hours. Not a lot of moisture for this to work with, but
CAMS and GFS QPF output indicate the threat of a shower - mainly in
the evening. Thinking is that this wouldn`t be anything more than a
sprinkle, so included the mention of sprinkles north of the city
during the evening. Dry otherwise during the daytime and late
night hours.
As for temperatures, it will be another above-normal day, but a
synoptic onshore flow along with sea breezes will limit the warmth
potential in most areas. Another consideration will be the thickness
of cirrus which may hinder insolation, particularly across southern
zones. Warmest spots will most likely be along the western fringe of
the forecast area where winds are more likely to remain S to SW.
Upper 60s here with even a few 70 degree readings possible. Highs
then range downward heading east, with lower 50s across eastern LI
and SE CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period starts off with possibly the nicest day of the
week for most on Thursday. Heights continue to slightly rise aloft
through the day on Thursday, with an upper level ridge over the
eastern CONUS. At the surface, a frontal boundary will likely be
just north of the area, or pushing north through the area, with low
pressure approaching from the west and high pressure centered to our
south over the western Atlantic. This pattern will result in a S/SW
flow across the area. This time of year this leads to pretty large
temperature differences across our area. Blended in some of the NBM
90th percentile to get lower 70s across Northeast NJ, upper 60s
across NYC, Lower Hudson Valley and interior CT and low 50s to low
60s for Long Island and southeast CT where a cool flow off of the
waters will keep temps lower. There is some concern, however, with
how much cloud cover will be around given the nearby frontal
boundary and some moisture rounding the upper level ridge. More
cloud cover than what is currently forecast may result in a slightly
lower high temperature forecast.
Aforementioned low pressure to the west will continue to approach as
the upper level ridge axis shifts offshore. Guidance looks similar
to yesterday in terms of the track of the low. The GFS remains the
farthest north, with the ECMWF, NAM and Canadian farther south,
taking the center right over our area. PoPs start to increase
Thursday night, becoming likely across the interior by Friday
morning, with lingering chances lasting through Friday night. A
washout is not expected and there will likely be some dry periods,
especially early Friday. A track farther north, like the GFS, will
result in less periods of rain and lighter QPF. Currently only
forecasting about 0.25 to 0.50 inches for the event in total, all
plain rain. The latest NBM only has about a 10 percent chance of the
area seeing 1 inch of rain over 24 hours.
Behind this first system, brief high pressure will likely build in,
allowing for a dry Saturday and Saturday night. Another low then
looks to impact the area, this one passing well to the north, but
dragging a cold front through the area late Sunday with a secondary
cold front late Monday as a deep upper trough swings through. This
will bring back a colder airmass to the area, with highs slightly
below normal, low to mid 40s, expected by next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR as high pressure settles to the southwest.
W-NW with gusts 20-25 kt, will gradually diminish this evening,
mainly after 21Z-22Z. Winds become light tonight and will become
more variable after midnight. Winds on Wednesday will be light
to start, then become more southeasterly around 5-10kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional at times through this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wed afternoon - Thursday: VFR.
Friday: MVFR or lower conditions possible in rain, mainly in the
afternoon. S-SW winds 10-15kt.
Saturday: VFR. NW winds around 10kt.
Sunday: Chance of MVFR conditions in rain showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively tranquil conditions expected tonight through Wednesday
night as winds will be on the lighter side, due to a high pressure
ridge over the local waters. Sub-advisory conditions through this
period.
Winds and waves look to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
Thursday through Monday. Two frontal systems are expected to impact
the waters, one Thursday night through Friday night and another late
Sunday into Monday. However, winds do not look too strong with
either system. The pressure gradient will tighten over the area
behind the second system on Tuesday. This will bring the potential
for SCA wind gusts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week at this
time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Increasing astronomical tides and a developing onshore flow
Wed-Thu may result in water levels touching minor flood
benchmarks along the SW CT coast and also along the back bays of
Southern Nassau. This could occur as early as the high tide
cycle late tonight along the SW CT coast, but appears more
likely late Wed night. Better chances tonight appear to be
across SW CT based on guidance underestimating levels here over
the past couple of instances when we were approaching a new or
full moon. Have therefore issued a statement for coastal
Fairfield County to address tonight`s flooding potential, which
should be isolated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JT
NEAR TERM...JC/JT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...BC/BR
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC