000
FXUS61 KOKX 130921
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
521 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will move across today, followed by weak low
pressure tonight. A warm front will linger in its wake near or
just north of the area Thursday into Thursday night, with the
associated low pressure system impacting the area late Thursday
night through Friday night. High pressure will briefly return on
Saturday before another low pressure system passes well to the
north Sunday and Sunday night. This low will drag a cold front
across late Sunday, with a secondary cold front following late
Monday. High pressure will begin to build in to the southwest on
Tuesday as the low moves well to the north.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Patch of high clouds and a few lower clouds marking the leading
edge of warm advection aloft were moving across attm.
Additional high clouds will spread in through the day today.
Light/vrb flow attm should turn onshore by this afternoon as the
weak high passes to the east. While temps should be well above
normal today, today`s temperature forecast is actually trickier
than yesterday`s due to high clouds and maritime influence.
Today think temps will still be a little warmer than consensus
GFS/NAM MOS and NBM, with highs mostly 60-65 for Long Island and
southern CT, and 65-70 for NYC, the lower Hudson Valley and NE
NJ.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Guidance still indicates potential for some isolated showers well
inland this evening near the warm frontal boundary this
evening, so have kept slight chance mention across the far nrn
tier of zones. Dry otherwise, but there may be some
advective/radiation fog across eastern Long Island after
midnight. Low temps should range from the 40s invof NYC, to the
30s most elsewhere, to few upper 20s in the Long Island Pine
Barrens and across interior SE CT.

After another night of light/vrb flow as the weak low moves
across, flow should again become onshore Thu afternoon. With
less in the way of afternoon clouds it should be warmer than
today, with higher 70-75 west of the Hudson, in the mid/upper
60s most elsewhere, and lower 60s for south facing shorelines.

Chances for showers start to increase Thu night as low pressure
riding the frontal boundary just north of the area begins to
approach. CAM`s suggest fog along the coast in the 2nd night of
onshore flow, though increased cloud cover and dewpoints lower
than SST`s may limit both the radiative and advective aspects.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A near zonal upper flow across the region Friday will keep the
track of a surface low to the north of the region, with the
area remaining in the warm sector as a warm front pushes to the
north. There will be elevated CAPE developing in the vicinity of
the warm front, along with shear, and an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible. With the uncertainty of the warm front, and
low coverage, have not included in the forecast at this time.

A more amplified upper trough, moves into the Great Lakes region
and northeast late Saturday night through early next week.
However, the associated surface low will be deeper, and still
track to the north. One cold frontal passage is expected Sunday
night with a secondary cold front Monday. The airmass will
remain warm enough Sunday night for all rain, then with some
colder air moving in behind the initial cold front, there will
be a chance of rain and snow showers across the interior.
Moisture will be limited with the secondary cold front and
little precipitation is expected. The first cold front will
return the region to more normal temperatures, while the
secondary front will bring temperatures to several degrees below
normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure will remain south of the area into late afternoon,
then a weak low approaches to the north with a stationary front
remaining nearby through Wednesday night.

VFR.

Winds will be light and variable to near calm overnight. The
winds this morning will be light to start, then become more
south to southeast mainly at 5-10 kt in the afternoon. Winds
then become light and variable to near calm tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No amendments expected. There is a chance that IFR to LIFR
stratus moves into KJFK and possibly KLGA toward Thursday
morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late tonight and Thursday: Generally VFR. There is a chance of
IFR to LIFR ceilings along the coast, mainly at KJFK and KISP, into
early Thursday morning.

Friday: MVFR or lower conditions possible in rain, ending late
at night with conditions improving.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR conditions in rain showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Winds and seas remain below advisory levels through early
Sunday. With low pressure passing to the north late Saturday
night through Sunday night and strengthening southerly flow,
may allow for marginal SCA conditions on the ocean waters,
mainly east of Moriches Inlet, by late Sunday into Sunday
night. The flow becomes northwest behind the low and conditions
fall below SCA levels Sunday night.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Peaking astronomical tides after SUnday`s new moon and a
developing onshore flow should result in water levels reaching
minor benchmarks along the western Sound (Fairfield/Westchester)
and in the back bays of Nassau with the high tide cycle late
tonight. This should be the last episode of recent coastal
flooding as astronomical tides will be on the wane through the
rest of the week.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
     CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ071.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET
NEAR TERM...Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...Goodman/MET
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Goodman