000
FXUS61 KOKX 131651
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1251 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will pass through this evening and overnight.
A warm front will linger in its wake near the area Thursday
into Thursday night. A low pressure system will then impact the
area late Thursday night through Friday night. High pressure
will briefly return on Saturday before another low pressure
system passes well to the north Sunday. This low will drag a
cold front across late Sunday, with high pressure following.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High clouds are starting to thin out a bit over the NYC/NJ metro
area. Ended up bumping highs down just a degree or two as cloud
cover was thicker this morning than previously forecast. This
leaves most of NYC/NJ metro area with forecast highs in the
upper 60s, with a few readings of 70 likely. Also lowered highs
over Long Island and coastal CT where an onshore flow will keep
temps in the mid to upper 50s. These highs are still a bit
higher than consensus GFS/NAM MOS and NBM.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Guidance still indicates potential for some isolated showers well
inland this evening near the warm frontal boundary this
evening, so have kept slight chance mention across the far nrn
tier of zones. Dry otherwise, but there may be some
advective/radiation fog across eastern Long Island after
midnight. Low temps should range from the 40s invof NYC, to the
30s most elsewhere, to few upper 20s in the Long Island Pine
Barrens and across interior SE CT.
After another night of light/vrb flow as the weak low moves
across, flow should again become onshore Thu afternoon. With
less in the way of afternoon clouds it should be warmer than
today, with higher 70-75 west of the Hudson, in the mid/upper
60s most elsewhere, and lower 60s for south facing shorelines.
Chances for showers start to increase Thu night as low pressure
riding the frontal boundary just north of the area begins to
approach. CAM`s suggest fog along the coast in the 2nd night of
onshore flow, though increased cloud cover and dewpoints lower
than SST`s may limit both the radiative and advective aspects.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A near zonal upper flow across the region Friday will keep the
track of a surface low to the north of the region, with the
area remaining in the warm sector as a warm front pushes to the
north. There will be elevated CAPE developing in the vicinity of
the warm front, along with shear, and an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible. With the uncertainty of the warm front, and
low coverage, have not included in the forecast at this time.
A more amplified upper trough, moves into the Great Lakes region
and northeast late Saturday night through early next week.
However, the associated surface low will be deeper, and still
track to the north. One cold frontal passage is expected Sunday
night with a secondary cold front Monday. The airmass will
remain warm enough Sunday night for all rain, then with some
colder air moving in behind the initial cold front, there will
be a chance of rain and snow showers across the interior.
Moisture will be limited with the secondary cold front and
little precipitation is expected. The first cold front will
return the region to more normal temperatures, while the
secondary front will bring temperatures to several degrees below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain south of the area into late afternoon,
then a weak low approaches to the north with a stationary front
remaining nearby tonight into early Thursday morning. The front
may move south of the terminals later Thursday morning.
Mainly VFR through the forecast. There is a chance of IFR to
LIFR ceilings at KJFK, KLGA, KISP, and KGON after 09Z with
highest probability eastern terminals. There is also a chance
of fog, but not confident that visibilities will be
significantly lowered.
Light and variable wind become more south to southeast mainly
at 5-10 kt into the afternoon. Winds then become light and
variable to near calm tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected. There is a chance that
IFR to LIFR stratus moves into/develops at KJFK and possibly
KLGA toward Thursday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: MVFR or lower conditions possible in rain, ending late
at night with conditions improving.
Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: Chance of MVFR conditions in rain showers.
Monday: VFR. Gusty winds possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels through early
Sunday. With low pressure passing to the north late Saturday
night through Sunday night and strengthening southerly flow,
may allow for marginal SCA conditions on the ocean waters,
mainly east of Moriches Inlet, by late Sunday into Sunday
night. The flow becomes northwest behind the low and conditions
fall below SCA levels Sunday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Peaking astronomical tides after SUnday`s new moon and a
developing onshore flow should result in water levels reaching
minor benchmarks along the western Sound (Fairfield/Westchester)
and in the back bays of Nassau with the high tide cycle late
tonight. This should be the last episode of recent coastal
flooding as astronomical tides will be on the wane through the
rest of the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
NYZ071.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...