000
FXUS61 KOKX 131945
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
345 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure will pass through this evening and overnight and a
warm front will linger in its wake near the area Thursday. A low
pressure system will then impact the area late Thursday night
through Friday night. Low pressure shifts east as high pressure
briefly moves in on Saturday. Another low pressure passes well
north of the area Sunday, dragging a cold front through the area.
High pressure builds back in through the middle of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stalled frontal boundary remains just to our west currently.
The boundary will be pulled north as a warm front this evening as
a weak wave of low pressure approaches from our northwest and
passes through the area overnight.

High cloud cover over the NYC/NJ metro area and more of an onshore
southeasterly flow has held temperatures below the forecast. Given
the time of year, there is still some time for temperatures to
rise a bit as high cloud cover does look to finally be clearing
these areas. Temperatures likely do not exceed the upper 60s
now, except in portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. Temperatures
farther east across Long Island and coastal CT have been held
in the lower to mid 50s given the cool onshore flow.

The CAMs continue to show some shower activity moving through
southern CT this evening and overnight as the weak wave of low
pressure passes through. Given limited moisture, plenty of dry air
below the cloud layer and weak lift, capped PoPs at slight chance
for a portion of southern CT and there is potential for the activity
to be more like sprinkles than showers.

With light winds and clear skies to start out the night,
temperatures should drop fairly quickly this evening. There is then
potential for high clouds to move in late in the tonight period, and
also for some lower to mid level clouds to move through southern CT
with any aforementioned showers/sprinkles. Ended up going with a
blend of the NBM and CONSMOS and then made some warmer
adjustments for southern CT. Confidence is low, but there is
some potential in some advective/radiation fog across Long
Island. Kept patchy 2 mile fog in the forecast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The aforementioned warm front will likely linger over the area on
Thursday as the weak wave of low pressure exits to the east. The
front will then push north Thursday evening as another, larger low
approaches from the west.

Although some high clouds will be around again tomorrow, expecting a
warmer day, with low to possibly mid 70s across northeast NJ, upper
60s to low 70s for NYC, the Lower Hudson Valley and interior CT and
mid 50s to low 60s across Long Island and the CT coast with a cool
onshore flow. Also expecting more of a traditional sea breeze
tomorrow with the synoptic flow likely starting off northerly as low
pressure exits. Depending on how far the boundary makes it will have
significant impact on the high temperature forecast.

PoPs increase Thursday night as the aforementioned low
approaches from the west. All plain rain is expected, with a
period of likely PoPs across the interior late Thursday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak low pressure over the area Friday will continue to slide east
under predominantly zonal upper level flow. As the low pushes a cold
front through the area during the day, there will be a chance of
showers during much of the day Friday and into Friday evening. By
Saturday, a weak surface high pressure ridge builds into the area as
a much larger mid-level low amplifies the flow over the Great Lakes
region.

The large surface low passes well north of the area on Sunday
pushing another more prominent cold front through the area. This
will allow for an additional chance for showers during the day
Sunday. As the large amplified upper level trough moves overhead
and mid-level energy continues to push in from the east into
Monday, a few additional afternoon instability showers may develop.
Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the area with high
pressure building back in from the west will allow the wind to ramp
up a bit into the beginning of next week.

Surface high pressure will gradually build back into the area
through the middle of next week as the upper level trough slowly
pushes to the east with piece of energy moving overhead through
Wednesday. This should largely allow for dry, breezy, and cooler
conditions.

The temperature trend will feature a gradual cool down through the
long term period. Highs on Friday in the 60s for most will cool into
the 50s for the weekend. A cold front moving through Sunday will
allow for temperatures to drop through the middle of the week with
highs Monday through Wednesday generally in the 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mainly VFR through the forecast period. Slight chance of IFR to LIFR
ceilings at KJFK, KLGA, KISP, and KGON after 09Z with highest
probability eastern terminals. There is also a chance of patchy fog,
but not confident that visibilities will be significantly lowered.

South to southeast mainly around 10kt this evening becoming light
and variable to near calm tonight. S-SE winds increasing to
around 10 kt again on Thursday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected. There is a chance that
IFR to LIFR stratus moves into/develops at KJFK and possibly
KLGA toward Thursday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: MVFR or lower conditions possible in rain, ending late
at night with conditions improving.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR conditions in rain showers.

Monday: VFR.  Gusty winds possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Criteria tonight
through the weekend, though a low pressure on Friday may allow
for a few wind gusts and waves on the ocean waters to near SCA
thresholds. The next chance for SCA conditions for the waters is
with the approach of a cold front on Sunday with seas on the
ocean rising to near 5 feet and gusts near 25kt.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Peaking astronomical tides after Sunday`s new moon and a
developing onshore flow should result in water levels reaching
minor benchmarks along the western Sound (Fairfield/Westchester)
and in the back bays of Nassau with the high tide cycle late
tonight. This should be the last episode of recent coastal
flooding as astronomical tides will be on the wane through the
rest of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
     CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ071.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/MW
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG