000
FXUS61 KOKX 141117
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
717 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will pass east this morning as a stationary
front remains nearby. Weak low pressure will pass to the north
late tonight into Friday night and drag a cold front slowly
through in its wake. Weak high pressure will follow for
Saturday. Another low will pass well north on Sunday and drag
another cold front through. A secondary cold front will move
through on Monday. High pressure will then return into mid next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fcst remains on track. A stalled frontal boundary remains in
place just south of Long Island and west of the NYC metro area
and NE NJ, then cutting across Orange County. As a weak low to
the north passes by this morning, light N-NW winds in its wake
may push the boundary farther south this morning, then the front
may pass through parts of the area this afternoon on a general
W to SW flow. Think the front will make it through areas NW of
NYC with high temps reaching the lower/mid 70s, but even in the
cool sector temps should be milder than those of yesterday, with
highs in the lower/mid 60s away from the SE CT coastline and
the immediate south shore and forks of Long Island, where high
temps will be in the mid/upper 50s.
The front will likely sink back to the south tonight, with a
light SE-S flow becoming established areawide. Meanwhile chances
for showers should increase tonight, especially after midnight
and across the interior as low pressure moving east along the
front approaches. Low temps tonight should range from the lower
50s in/around NYC through the 40s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The warm front may lift into parts of the area briefly Fri
morning before sinking back S as a cold front in the wake of
the sfc low passing east. GFS in particular is slower to bring
the front through, with a trailing wave of low pressure riding
along it bringing another round of showers mainly in the
afternoon especially for NYC metro and Long Island. Chances for
showers should diminish going into Fri night as the wave moves
east and the associated upper trough passes through late, with
high pressure briefly returning for Sat.
Temps on Fri will remain on the mild side, mid 60s for NE NJ,
upper 50s/lower 60s most elsewhere, and mid 50s across eastern
CT/Long Island. Slightly cooler temps expected for Sat, with
highs from the lower 60s in NE NJ to the 50s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An amplified upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region and
Northeast late Saturday night through Monday, and then moves
northeast Monday night as heights begin to rise. A deep
associated surface low will track well to the north Saturday
night into Sunday. The low will drag one cold front through on
Sunday, with a secondary cold frontal passage on Monday. This
will return the area to more seasonal temperature levels by
Monday and through the middle of the week. With the second surge
of cold air Monday, and instability showers developing inland, a
mix of rain and snow, or all snow will be possible Monday.
High pressure builds into the area Tuesday and Wednesday. The
NBM guidance handled the temperatures and probabilities well
and were used for the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak trough passes through the area early this morning. A weak
low approaches from the west this evening and passes to the
north tonight, and then off the New England coast Friday.
VFR through the forecast period. There is no stratus developing
and have removed the lower conditions from the TAFs.
Winds will be mainly light and variable through most of the
forecast period with sea breeze flow developing at the coasts
through 22Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Late tonight: MVFR with showers inland and a chance of showers
along the coast. Low chance of IFR along the coast.
Friday: MVFR or lower conditions possible with a chance of
showers, ending late at night with conditions improving.
Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: Chance of MVFR conditions in rain showers, mainly in the
morning.
Monday: VFR. There is a chance of brief MVFR at KSWF with
rain/snow showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet through Sat night. With an increased southerly flow
Sunday, ahead of a low pressure system passing to the north,
marginal SCA seas will be possible on the ocean waters. Wind
gusts will likely remain below advisory levels as a low level
inversion sets up as warmer air moves over the cooler waters.
Winds shift to the west Sunday night and ocean seas will subside
to below advisory levels. Then with a strong and gusty
northwest flow behind the low Monday night into Tuesday SCA
conditions will be possible across the forecast wasters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET
NEAR TERM...Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...Goodman/MET
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET