000
FXUS61 KOKX 142157
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
557 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary remains in the vicinity into early this
evening. An approaching wave of low pressure will help move this
front north as a warm front tonight. The low move east of New
England Friday, bringing a cold front across the area during the
day. Another wave of low pressure travels along the cold front
south of the region Friday night. Weak high pressure briefly
moves in on Saturday. Low pressure passes well north of the area
Sunday, dragging a cold front through the area. High pressure
then gradually builds back in through the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with minor adjustments to account for
the latest observations of temperature and dew points and the
trends into the evening.
The frontal boundary is forecast to move north as a warm front
tonight ahead of an approaching wave of low pressure. Clouds
will increase more tonight from west to east. Overall, mostly
cloudy conditions are expected tonight. Dry conditions are
expected to prevail through much of this evening.
Ahead of the central low pressure, vertical forcing will
increase as diagnosed from low level omega increasing. A mid
level shortwave will be approaching from the north late tonight
but highest positive vorticity advection stays mainly north of
the area. The wave will be weakening as it moves near the area.
Chance for rain showers increase late this evening with rain
showers becoming likely overnight.
Lows tonight a blend of MAV, MET, and NBM as well as consensus
of raw model data, ranging from the lower 40s to lower 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level flow remains zonal Friday through Friday night.
At the surface, one wave of low pressure is expected to pass
north and east of the region Friday and as it exits east of
coastal New England, and it will bring a cold front across late
morning into the afternoon. There is some uncertainty with the
timing of this cold front passage.
Another wave of low pressure is forecast to move east and eventually
pass south of Long Island Friday afternoon into Friday night along
this cold front. Forecast models have trended farther south
with the front and this other wave of low pressure. The cold
front and low pressure are expected to move well south of the
region Friday night.
Clouds will remain abundant through the day Friday.
Chances for rain showers remain to the west remain early and
along the southern parts of coastal regions during the day
Friday, mainly for NE NJ into NYC and much Long Island.
Forecast comparing 12Z to 00Z model runs shows lower chances of
rain showers.
Leaned towards greater weight with NBM compared to MAV and MET MOS
and NBM, with a range of high temperatures forecast from upper 50s
to mid 60s. Based on 12Z model runs, this forecast is slightly
warmer than the forecast based on 00Z model runs. One feature
mitigating high temperature potential will be the low to mid
level cold air advection. 850mb temperatures lower during the
day with forecast soundings showing a backing of winds from
lower to mid levels.
For Friday night, mainly dry conditions are anticipated and with a
gradual decrease in clouds from north to south as weak high
pressure starts to build in from the north. NW flow will become
more northerly and decrease with gusts diminishing. More
radiational cooling is expected. Lows forecast weighed more
heavily with MOS blend compared to NBM to depict this with a
range of lows from lower 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gradual ridging on Saturday will allow for a weak surface high to
build into the region with fairly dry and mostly clear to partly
cloudy conditions. A large digging trough upstream and an associated
large surface low pressure north of the Great Lakes region will
begin to push into the area on Sunday. As the low passes to the
north, it drags a cold front through the area on Sunday with a
chance of showers for the area, mainly for the northern portions of
the CWA.
The large low pressure continues eastward over Southeast Canada with
the cold front south of the area on Monday. The large amplified
upper level trough establishes its dominance over much of the Great
Lakes region and Northeast by Monday. A series of secondary cold
fronts push through the area under primarily northwest flow,
bringing with it reinforcing shots of cold air into Tuesday. While
showers are generally not expected with these weaker frontal
passages, instability showers may develop into the afternoon on
Monday with the upper trough overhead.
Much of the midlevel energy pushes east on Tuesday with the upper
level trough generally pulling away. Some subtle ridging looks to
move in by late Tuesday and into Wednesday with weak surface high
pressure building in providing for generally dry conditions. Another
low pressure system may impact the area by the end of the week but
global models struggle to remain consistent at this time.
Temperatures will remain mild on Saturday and Sunday ahead of the
cold front with highs in the middle to upper 50s. Cooler air will
then filter in behind the cold front such that high temperatures
from Monday through Wednesday remain generally in the middle 40s.
Tuesday should be the coolest day of the long term with highs in the
low to middle 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal system passes across the terminals tonight into Friday.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Showers are possible overnight
into early Friday morning with a chance of MVFR ceilings. A brief
shower is also possible later Friday morning into Friday afternoon,
but not enough confidence coverage and duration to include in the
TAFs at this time.
S-SE sea breezes under 10 kt will continue pushing inland into this
evening. Winds will weaken towards sunset and then gradually shift
towards the SW early Friday morning. Wind speeds increase after
sunrise, becoming NW 10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt.
LLWS remains in the TAF for all sites except KSWF early Friday
morning, 08-13z, with SW winds at 2kft around 45 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Sea breezes should pass through KLGA and KTEB by 21z.
Timing of wind shifts overnight and Friday may be off by 1-3 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Afternoon-Night: Mainly VFR. Shower possible. NW wind gusts
around 20 kt in the afternoon.
Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers, mainly inland. SW wind
gusts 20-30 kt.
Monday: Mainly VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Tuesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 25-30 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty NW flow may allow for some SCA wind gusts on the ocean
Friday into Friday night. Ocean seas forecast to get close to
SCA threshold but stay at 4 ft. Otherwise, tonight through
Friday night will have mainly below SCA conditions for the
forecast waters.
The confidence is too low for any SCA issuance at this time for
Friday into Friday night. Most gusts will be to near 20 kt.
BUFKIT soundings show limited mixing over the waters also.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected for all waters through Saturday
with marginal SCA conditions possible developing ahead of a
cold frontal passage on Sunday. Winds may gust near 25 kt for
all waters, though the ocean seems more likely. Waves on the
ocean will be around 4-5 feet. Sub-SCA conditions are then
expected once again by Sunday evening though Monday afternoon.
Additional near 25 kt gusts may provide for SCA conditions again
Monday evening, mainly for the ocean.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significance with forecast rain tonight through Friday with
less than a quarter inch.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...JM/MW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW