000
FXUS61 KOKX 150914
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
514 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves across southern New England this morning,
and then east of the New England coast, bringing a cold front
across the area during the day. Weak high pressure briefly moves
in late today and Saturday. Low pressure passes well north of
the area Sunday, dragging a cold front through the area. As low
pressure lingers over the Canadian Maritimes, a trailing weak
cold front will pass east Sunday night, followed by a stronger
cold front late day Monday into Monday evening. High pressure
will then build to the south on Tuesday. A clipper low will pass
to the north on Wednesday, followed by Canadian high pressure
building from the northwest on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak low was moving eastward through the lower Hudson Valley,
and will move off the New England coast later this morning into
this afternoon. A cold front with the low will move south of the
area this afternoon. There was little forcing, and moisture,
mainly in the mid levels, with the front. With the lower levels
dry, and surface dew point depressions 10 to 15 degrees, the
showers were weakening as the area moved into the region, and
little precipitation was reaching the ground. The cold front is
now expected to push farther south than previous forecast, and
the CAMs and global guidance are showing dry conditions by mid
afternoon behind the cold front. A warm airmass remains ahead of
the cold front and highs remain well above normal. MOS guidance
and NBM were close with the highs, which should occur early
afternoon, and were used.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak surface high pressures builds in from the west late today
through Saturday morning, and shifts south during the afternoon
as low pressure tracks north of the Great Lakes. With near
zonal upper flow through Sunday the upper trough remains to the
north, with much of the energy passing just north, or across the
northern edge of the forecast area. Again with little moisture
and upper support little precipitation is expected with a cold
front late Saturday night into Sunday. And with the near zonal
flow cold air is not expected to move into the region, and
temperatures remain well above seasonal normals. Once again used
a blend of the MOS and NBM guidance for temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Flow aloft becomes quite amplified during this time, with a longwave
trough becoming established over eastern NoAm. One weak front will
slide E Sunday night, followed by fair Wx on Monday and temps close
to normal. Then as the longwave trough amplifies a stronger cold
front will move through late day Monday into Monday evening. This
front looks moisture starved and should go through mostly dry, with
perhaps a stray rain or snow shower well NW of NYC. This will usher
in a colder air mass on a gusty NW flow, with temps running below
normal for Tue and Wed, with highs only in the 40s and lows from the
upper 20s to mid 30s.
A potent nrn stream trough diving out of central Canada will pass
nearby on Tue, with an associated sfc low passing to the northeast.
Most of the forcing with this sys should remain near the sfc low
track, so only have 20 PoP for snow/rain showers NW of NYC daytime
Wed.
NBM captures most of the above details well, but looks too quick to
warm temps up on Thu given low level CAA still ongoing despite
deamplification of the longwave trough and rising heights aloft in
the wake of the departing clipper low.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure moving across southern New England this morning
will bring a weak cold front through today. Weak high pressure
will then briefly move in late today and tonight.
VFR. Expect some isolated showers at the NYC metros/KISP/KGON
before daybreak, then perhaps late this morning or early this
afternoon with the cold frontal passage, with timing about 16Z
KSWF, 16Z-17Z NYC metros/KHPN, 17Z-18Z KISP/KBDR, 18Z-19Z KGON.
Vrb winds early should become WSW less than 10 kt before cold
fropa, then become WNW 10-15G20kt this afternoon. Winds then
gradually diminish 10 under 10 kt this evening while veering N.
LLWS remains for all sites except KSWF early this morning, with
WSW winds at 2 kft AGL still around 45 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
LLWS could last until cold fropa (16Z-17Z) with winds at FL020
veering to 28045kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Late tonight and Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: Chance of showers with brief MVFR cond possible inland,
mainly at KSWF and mainly in the morning. SW winds 10-15G20kt in
the morning, becoming W 15G20-25kt in the afternoon, then
diminishing at night.
Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming NW at night.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Marginal SCA conditions will be possible on the outer ocean
waters, mainly east of Fire Island Inlet, for a few hours this
morning, as low pressure tracks north of the waters. A westerly
flow will then develop behind the low and winds and seas will
fall below SCA levels for the afternoon.
Sub SCA conditions will remain on the forecast waters tonight
through Saturday night as weak high pressure builds over the
area. Sunday low pressure will be tracking well to the north of
the forecast waters and an increasing southerly flow ahead of a
cold front will allow for SCA conditions to develop on the
ocean. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible on the
non ocean waters Sunday afternoon.
SCA cond likely on most if not all waters from late day Mon into Tue
evening with and following a cold frontal passage, with NW flow
gusting up to 30 kt on the ocean and 25 kt elsewhere. With offshore
flow ocean seas should get no higher than 4-6 ft. Minimal SCA cond
should linger on the ocean into the rest of Tue night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected today through late next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...Goodman/MET
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET