000
FXUS61 KOKX 151518
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1118 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves through the area this afternoon. Weak high
pressure briefly moves in late today and Saturday. Low pressure
passes well north of the area Sunday, dragging a cold front
through the area. As low pressure lingers over the Canadian
Maritimes, a trailing weak cold front will pass east Sunday
night, followed by a stronger cold front late day Monday into
Monday evening. High pressure will then build to the south on
Tuesday. A clipper low will pass to the north on Wednesday,
followed by Canadian high pressure building from the northwest
on Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A cold front now entering the forecast area will be moving
through into this afternoon. Still a chance of a shower or
sprinkle, then likely dry late this afternoon. Varying amounts
of cloud cover complicate the high temperature forecast. Parts
of Orange County already near 70 but probably won`t rise too
much more from this point on as cold air advection sets in.
Have raised the high temperature forecast in most spots given
the upstream trend.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak surface high pressures builds in from the west late today
through Saturday morning, and shifts south during the afternoon
as low pressure tracks north of the Great Lakes. With near
zonal upper flow through Sunday the upper trough remains to the
north, with much of the energy passing just north, or across the
northern edge of the forecast area. Again with little moisture
and upper support little precipitation is expected with a cold
front late Saturday night into Sunday. And with the near zonal
flow cold air is not expected to move into the region, and
temperatures remain well above seasonal normals. Once again used
a blend of the MOS and NBM guidance for temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Flow aloft becomes quite amplified during this time, with a longwave
trough becoming established over eastern NoAm. One weak front will
slide E Sunday night, followed by fair Wx on Monday and temps close
to normal. Then as the longwave trough amplifies a stronger cold
front will move through late day Monday into Monday evening. This
front looks moisture starved and should go through mostly dry, with
perhaps a stray rain or snow shower well NW of NYC. This will usher
in a colder air mass on a gusty NW flow, with temps running below
normal for Tue and Wed, with highs only in the 40s and lows from the
upper 20s to mid 30s.

A potent nrn stream trough diving out of central Canada will pass
nearby on Tue, with an associated sfc low passing to the northeast.
Most of the forcing with this sys should remain near the sfc low
track, so only have 20 PoP for snow/rain showers NW of NYC daytime
Wed.

NBM captures most of the above details well, but looks too quick to
warm temps up on Thu given low level CAA still ongoing despite
deamplification of the longwave trough and rising heights aloft in
the wake of the departing clipper low.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A cold front will slowly pass through the area through mid
afternoon, followed by high pressure building in from the west
through tonight.

VFR. There could be some isolated showers with cold fropa, which
looks to occur at about 15Z at KSWF, 17-18Z at the NYC
metros/KHPN/KISP/KBDR, and 19Z KGON.

Winds should become WSW either side of 10 kt for a couple hrs
right before fropa, then WNW 10-15G20-25kt afterward. Winds then
gradually diminish to under 10 kt this evening while veering N
and then NW late.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled AMD possible to fine tune fropa timing.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Chance of showers with brief MVFR cond possible inland,
mainly at KSWF and mainly in the morning. SW winds 10-15G20kt in
the morning, becoming W 15G20-25kt in the afternoon, then
diminishing at night.

Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming NW at night.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Sub-advisory conditions expected to prevail today. There is
however a chance that seas on the ocean could briefly reach 5
ft east of Fire Island Inlet. A gust or two up to 25 kt is
possible as well. Otherwise, a more westerly flow will develops
behind a passing cold front this afternoon.

Sub SCA conditions will remain on the forecast waters tonight
through Saturday night as weak high pressure builds over the
area. Sunday low pressure will be tracking well to the north of
the forecast waters and an increasing southerly flow ahead of a
cold front will allow for SCA conditions to develop on the
ocean. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible on the
non ocean waters Sunday afternoon.

SCA cond likely on most if not all waters from late day Mon into
Tue evening with and following a cold frontal passage, with NW
flow gusting up to 30 kt on the ocean and 25 kt elsewhere. With
offshore flow ocean seas should get no higher than 4-6 ft.
Minimal SCA cond should linger on the ocean into the rest of Tue
night.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected today through late next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG/DW
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET