000
FXUS61 KOKX 151810
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
210 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area this afternoon. Weak high
pressure briefly moves in late today and Saturday. Low pressure
passes well north of the area Sunday, dragging a cold front
through the area. As low pressure lingers over the Canadian
Maritimes, a trailing weak cold front will pass east Sunday
night, followed by a stronger cold front late day Monday into
Monday evening. High pressure will then build to the south on
Tuesday. A clipper low will pass to the north on Wednesday,
followed by Canadian high pressure building from the northwest
on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The cold front is a little more than halfway through the
forecast area as of 130 PM and will be exiting east over the
next hour or two. Still some showers possible during this time.
Did however leave in a slight chance of additional showers late
this afternoon across some of the eastern zones as suggested by
CAMs. High temperatures end up mostly in the mid 60s to low 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak surface high pressures builds in from the west late today
through Saturday morning, and shifts south during the afternoon
as low pressure tracks north of the Great Lakes. With near
zonal upper flow through Sunday the upper trough remains to the
north, with much of the energy passing just north, or across the
northern edge of the forecast area. Again with little moisture
and upper support little precipitation is expected with a cold
front late Saturday night into Sunday. And with the near zonal
flow cold air is not expected to move into the region, and
temperatures remain well above seasonal normals. Once again used
a blend of the MOS and NBM guidance for temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flow aloft becomes quite amplified during this time, with a longwave
trough becoming established over eastern NoAm. One weak front will
slide E Sunday night, followed by fair Wx on Monday and temps close
to normal. Then as the longwave trough amplifies a stronger cold
front will move through late day Monday into Monday evening. This
front looks moisture starved and should go through mostly dry, with
perhaps a stray rain or snow shower well NW of NYC. This will usher
in a colder air mass on a gusty NW flow, with temps running below
normal for Tue and Wed, with highs only in the 40s and lows from the
upper 20s to mid 30s.
A potent nrn stream trough diving out of central Canada will pass
nearby on Tue, with an associated sfc low passing to the northeast.
Most of the forcing with this sys should remain near the sfc low
track, so only have 20 PoP for snow/rain showers NW of NYC daytime
Wed.
NBM captures most of the above details well, but looks too quick to
warm temps up on Thu given low level CAA still ongoing despite
deamplification of the longwave trough and rising heights aloft in
the wake of the departing clipper low.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Following a cold frontal passage this afternoon, high pressure
will build in from the west into tonight. The high passes south
of the terminals on Saturday.
VFR. Winds will be WNW 10-15G20-25kt this afternoon, then veer
to north late this afternoon into this evening. Winds will also
diminish to under 10 kt as the evening progresses. Some locations
will go light and variable overnight or become light WNW, before
increasing after 12Z to 7 to 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are possible as winds shift to the north and
diminish this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. Afternoon seabreeze enhancement may increase S
winds at KJFK to 15-20kt. A bit weaker for KLGA.
Sunday: Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions possible,
mainly at KSWF in the morning. SW winds 10-15G20kt in the
morning, becoming W 15G20-25kt in the afternoon, then
diminishing at night.
Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming WNW in the evening
Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions expected to prevail today. There is
however a chance that seas on the ocean could briefly reach 5
ft east of Fire Island Inlet. A gust or two up to 25 kt is
possible as well. Otherwise, a more westerly flow will develops
behind a passing cold front this afternoon.
Sub SCA conditions will remain on the forecast waters tonight
through Saturday night as weak high pressure builds over the
area. Sunday low pressure will be tracking well to the north of
the forecast waters and an increasing southerly flow ahead of a
cold front will allow for SCA conditions to develop on the
ocean. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible on the
non ocean waters Sunday afternoon.
SCA cond likely on most if not all waters from late day Mon into
Tue evening with and following a cold frontal passage, with NW
flow gusting up to 30 kt on the ocean and 25 kt elsewhere. With
offshore flow ocean seas should get no higher than 4-6 ft.
Minimal SCA cond should linger on the ocean into the rest of Tue
night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected today through late next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET