000
FXUS61 KOKX 161503
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1103 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure to the south moves off the mid Atlantic
coast today. A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight
as the associated low tracks through southeastern Canada. The
cold front moves across the region Sunday. The low moves slowly
eastward Sunday night and Monday and will bring another cold
front across the region late Monday. Weak disturbances move
through the area through the middle of next week followed by
high pressure for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast is on track with only minor changes made, mainly for
temperatures and dew points.
A warm airmass remains in the area as weak high pressure
remains centered to the south, moving off the mid Atlantic coast
this afternoon. A deep layered flow will remain through the day
with mostly clear conditions. Highs will be near 10 degrees
above normal levels, with the MOS and NBM guidance reasonable.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A digging upper trough across eastern Canada will send a cold
front toward the region tonight, as the upper flow still remains
mostly zonal. An associated surface low will track across
southeastern Canada tonight through Monday with the upper flow
slowly becoming southwesterly. There will be little moisture or
upper support with the cold front and a few scattered showers
will be possible late tonight into Sunday morning. The showers
may even become more scattered or dissipated before the cold
front moves through as the upper energy moves to the northeast.
Once again temperatures Sunday will be as much as 10 degrees
above normal. With the passage of the front temperatures return
to more normal levels Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term looks to be fairly quiet and dry despite a large
upper level trough over the Northeast for much of next week.
The upper level trough over the area on Monday night and
Tuesday becomes reinforced by mid-level energy moving in from
the northwest. Despite weak surface high pressure attempting to
build in, these mid- level disturbances may result in weak
frontal waves to move over the area through the middle of the
week. These weak systems looks to be mostly deprived of moisture
so there doesn`t appear to be much in the way of chances for
precipitation. The best chance will be during the day and
afternoon on Wednesday as cooler air aloft may provide for some
instability showers as a weak frontal system pushes through.
Best chance to see any sort of precipitation would be areas to
the north but capped PoPs at slight chance.
The trough attempts to lift by the end of the week with surface
high pressure trying to build into the area from the west. This
will allow for the mainly dry conditions to continue. Another
frontal system may impact the area by late Friday or into the
weekend.
Temperatures will be generally cooler than recently with the
upper level trough overhead. Highs through the week will
generally in the middle to possibly upper 40s for much of the
area with a slight warming trend toward the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will pass to the south and east today. A cold
front approaches from the northwest tonight, passing through on
Sunday.
VFR. Dry conditions expected today. Low chance of showers with
a frontal passage Sunday morning from 10-15Z. Any shower may
bring brief MVFR visibility and cigs.
Winds have been more on the light and variable side this morning
with local seabreezes developing. Flow looks to transition to
SW by early this afternoon with seabreeze enhancement expected
mid to late afternoon. Gusts may occur overnight ahead of an
approaching cold front.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds may be more light and variable until going over to the
S/SW this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions possible,
mainly at KSWF in the morning. SW winds 10-15G20kt in the morning,
becoming W 15G20-25kt in the afternoon, then diminishing at night.
Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming WNW in the evening
Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas.
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels today through
tonight. With an increasing south flow ahead of an approaching
cold front, and low pressure to the north, ocean seas build to
SCA levels Sunday morning. Marginal SCA wind gusts will be
possible also. Winds shift to the west late in the day and ocean
seas slowly subside to below SCA levels Sunday evening. Winds
and seas will then remain below advisory levels through Monday.
Small craft conditions remain possible on all waters Tuesday with
gusts upwards of 25 kt. Waves on the ocean will also be around 5 ft.
Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on the non-ocean waters by
Tuesday night with a return of marginal SCA conditions on the ocean
waters with near 25 kt gusts for Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected today through the end of
next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...JP/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW/DW
MARINE...JP/MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW