discussion on 2024-03-16

000
FXUS61 KOKX 162137
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
537 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight as the associated
low tracks through southeastern Canada. The cold front moves across
the region Sunday. The low moves slowly eastward Sunday night.
Another low may bring a weak front through on Monday followed
briefly by weak high pressure on Tuesday. Yet another low to our
northeast will bring a cold front through on Wednesday. Weak
high pressure takes hold until a frontal system impacts us late
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Dewpoints have been adjusted to account for current trends,
mainly in areas around the NYC metro running a little higher
than forecast. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track for this
update.

Dry for the first half of the night tonight as weak high pressure
pushes off the New England coast. Low pressure north of the Great
Lakes in southern Canada will move eastward through the night. A pre-
frontal trough in association with the low approaches towards
daybreak. This, in combination with a developing low level jet along
the coast at around 925 hPa will aid in development of some showers
across coastal areas. The strongest winds in association with the
jet will remain offshore however, so just expecting some showers.
Though some isolated showers may be associated with brief moderate
rainfall for eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut as
these areas will be closer to the low level jet. Meanwhile, the cold
front approaching inland will allow for the development of showers
across the Lower Hudson Valley during the same time frame, generally
after 2 am. The pre-frontal trough and cold front will move east
through the night.

With clouds and warm air advection, overnight lows will be warm for
this time of year, in the 40s region-wide.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front continues to push through the eastern half of the
forecast area Sunday morning, as the low pushes into northern New
England and southeastern Canada, but shower activity in association
with the cold front looks to weaken as there will be little moisture
to work with and upper level support.

Some instability showers are possible later in the day, mainly for
inland areas for the late morning into the afternoon, with somewhat
steep low level lapse rates noted in the thermal profiles. However,
with dew points dropping through the day as drier air works in at
the lower levels, there will be some dry air to overcome and at
least some of what falls will evaporate before hitting the ground.
Continued warm, with highs generally in the upper 50s to around 60.

Dry conditions with more seasonable, but slightly above normal
temperatures expected for Sunday night as high pressure builds in
from the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term looks to be fairly quiet and dry until Friday despite
a large upper level trough over the Northeast for much of next week.

The upper level trough over the area on Monday night and Tuesday
becomes reinforced by mid-level energy moving in from the northwest.
Despite weak surface high pressure attempting to build in, these mid-
 level disturbances may result in weak frontal waves to move over
the area through the middle of the week. These weak systems look to
be mostly deprived of moisture so there doesn`t appear to be much in
the way of chances for precipitation. The best chance will be during
the day and afternoon on Wednesday as cooler air aloft may provide
for some instability showers as a weak frontal system pushes
through. Best chance to see any sort of precipitation would be areas
to the north but capped PoPs at slight chance.

The latest models appear to have shifted their thinking for mid-to-
late week. Rather than developing a ridge, many keep the trough
lingering with a few developing zonal flow in the mid/upper-levels.
Have trended temperatures down in response to this change, but
decided not to go with the NBM`s solution as it is 10-15 degrees
colder than the previous forecast. Its possible temperatures may be
lowered further from the current forecast, should model solutions
hold firm in this new solution.

Another frontal system `may` impact the area late Friday or into the
weekend bringing rain and/or snow to the area. Kept POPs at low-end
chance for now as the latest guidance does not agree on the track
with this system. The 12Z ICON and GFS show direct impacts to the
area, the 12Z GDPS shows the low tracking too far south and the 12Z
ECMWF does not even have the low materializing Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure offshore will continue to give way to a cold front
approaching form the Great Lakes. The front passes through the
area Sunday morning, with a lee trough setting up behind it.

Mainly VFR. Brief period of MVFR possible with scattered showers
in the morning from 09-14Z.

SW-S winds this afternoon at around 10 kt with local seabreeze
enhancements expected mid to late afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt
may occur overnight ahead of the approaching cold front.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Seabreeze enhanced wind late this afternoon may get up to 20 kt
at KJFK.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Afternoon: W winds 15G20-30kt in the afternoon, then
diminishing at night.

Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming WNW in the evening

Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain inland, possibly
mixed with snow. W winds 10-15G20kt.

Thursday: VFR. WNW winds 10-15G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds increase out ahead of an approaching frontal system with a low
level jet developing, mainly after midnight. SCA gusts expected over
the ocean waters and the south shore bays and SCA issued starting 2
am Sunday morning. Isolated gusts to SCA level is possible over the
eastern sound and Peconic and Gardiner`s Bays, but did not issue SCA
here due to how marginal the winds were. Winds diminish mid Sunday
morning onward, with south shore bays dropping below 25 kt by late
morning, the western ocean zone by early afternoon, and the other 2
ocean zones just before midnight as waves linger above 5 ft over
those zones. Waves on the ocean will top out 5 to 7 ft during the
time frame the SCAs are in effect.

Thereafter, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA
criteria through rest of Sunday night.

Winds and seas will be below advisory levels Monday until TUesday
morning. SCA conditions may return with 25 kt gusts on ocean waters
early Tuesday morning, subsiding Tuesday night, with gusts close to
returning to SCA levels on most waters on Thursday. Waves may also
reach close to 5 feet on Tuesday on ocean waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected tonight through next weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/BR
NEAR TERM...JP/BR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP/BR
HYDROLOGY...JP/BR