000
FXUS61 KOKX 171755
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
155 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front dissipates to the east today, while a trough
resides across the area. Associated low pressure tracks slowly
east across eastern Canada to start the week, sending reinforcing
shots of cold air into the region. Weak high pressure moves in
for Tuesday. Low pressure brings a cold front through the area
on Wednesday. High pressure then briefly moves in for Thursday
with another frontal system possible for Friday and into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers have passed east of region, mainly aided by a LLJ ahead
of the 85h cold front. Surface cold front is to difficult to
discern and may have washed out. At the surface, while winds
continue to veer around to the W and strengthen, mild conditions
will continue today surface. In fact, a thermal/lee trough will
reside over the area today before pushing eastward this
evening. Cold advection will be more pronounced tonight.
West winds this afternoon will gusts up to around 30 mph.
A few instability showers will be possible across the lower
Hudson Valley and into portions of northeastern New Jersey this
afternoon and possibly into the early evening. Again, the CAMs
have been showing this and have maintained slight chance probabilities.
However, with little moisture and drying lower levels, little
precipitation may reach the ground.
Highs will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s, warmest in and
around the NYC metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry weather is expected tonight through Tuesday. Another weak
cold front, or surface trough does move through the region
Monday, however, there is very little moisture and there will be
a drying westerly flow. There may be a few sprinkles inland.
Otherwise more seasonable temperatures will be across the region
tonight through Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A large upper level trough over the Northeast remains in place
midweek with cooler temperatures for the area. Embedded energy
in the trough approaches from the northwest on Wednesday brining
with it an associated surface low pressure system. This low
passes to our north, dragging a cold front through the area
during the day on Wednesday. This may bring some showers to the
northern half of the CWA, though a lack of moisture will prevent
there being widespread precipitation.
The cold front moves through by Wednesday night with high
pressure attempting to build in from the west. As the low to the
east pulls away and the high pressure approaching from the
west, a tightening pressure gradient will allow for increasingly
breezy northwest winds to advect cooler air into the area for
Thursday.
Heights rise a bit as the mid-level flow become more zonal and
high pressure moves over the area. Models then differ as to the
handling of the potential next system where the GFS and CMC both
produce a fairly strong coastal low for late Friday and
Saturday. The ECMWF has a stronger high pressure over the area
for longer and keeps the area fairly dry and quiet through the
weekend. For now, kept the chance of showers in the extended
forecast to indicate the uncertainty in the eventual development
of this system.
Temperatures for the extended period will be largely at or
below average. Temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50s on
Wednesday will drop into the low to middle 40s for Thursday
through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will pushes east tonight with weak high pressure
building in behind it.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. KSWF may
see a shower move through this afternoon, but confidence was not
high enough to include in the TAF.
W to WNW winds through the TAF period. Sustained winds of 15-20
kt this afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 kt. Winds diminish
this evening, around 23Z or thereafter. Gusts return around 15Z
Monday, slightly weaker, at 20 to 25 kt. An isolated gust to 30
kt is possible.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Start and end time of gusts could be 1-3 hours off from
forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR. W to WNW winds 10-15G20-25kt, becoming WNW in the
evening
Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain inland, possibly mixed
with snow. W winds 10-15G20kt.
Thursday: VFR. WNW winds 10-15G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA kept up for NY Harbor and the Great South Bay this afternoon
due to the proximity to land and greater gusts potential around
25 kt. SCAs are up on the ocean was well, expected to end from
west to east this afternoon into this evening.
A stronger pressure gradient force develops on Tuesday, as high
pressure builds to the west, and wind gusts may reach SCA
levels across all the forecast waters and ocean seas may be
marginally 5 feet.
Near Small Craft conditions possible on the ocean Wednesday
night but gradual subsiding in the wind and waves should allow
for sub-SCA conditions on all waters by Wednesday morning. A
tightening pressure gradient by Wednesday afternoon and evening
will allow for widespread small craft conditions on all waters
by Wednesday evening. SCA conditions likely persist through the
day on Thursday before gradually subsiding Thursday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Only a few hundredths of an inch of wetting rain is expected
today, and no significant wetting rain has occurred since March
9/10. And dry conditions are expected through Thursday.
Minimum relative humidity this afternoon will be around 35 percent
with a southwest to west wind of 15 to 20 mph, gusting to around
25 mph. Drier conditions are expected Monday with the minimum
relative humidity 25 to 30 percent, with a west wind 10 to 15
mph, and gusts 15 to 20 mph.
Tuesday and Thursday minimum relative humidity will again range
from 25 to 30 percent, with Wednesday`s 35 to 45 percent. Gusty
westerly winds are expected during the day Tuesday through
Thursday. The highest winds and gusts are expected Thursday with
winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts 25 to 30 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected today through the end of the
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ338-
345.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JP/MW
MARINE...MET/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW