000
FXUS61 KOKX 190101
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
901 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A trough of low pressure shifts through tonight, otherwise weak
high pressure will be in control through Tuesday night. A
series of cold fronts then pushes through mid week. High
pressure will be over the area Thursday night into Friday. An
offshore low may scrape the area Saturday, followed by high
pressure building north of the area later in the weekend and
early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
For this update just bumped down temps by a degree or two for
the hourly databased going through the remainder of this evening
and through about 2 am with cold advection upstream just a tad
stronger that previously advertised. Also increased cloud cover
for a portion of the area (mainly further west) for the first
half of tonight.
A trough of low pressures shifts offshore this evening,
otherwise another trough is expected to move through late
tonight. Not enough moisture with either trough for showers, so
remaining dry tonight. It`ll be somewhat breezy however as we
remain in between low pressure meandering over the Canadian
Maritimes and high pressure trying to build in from the SW,
leaving us with a relatively tight pressure gradient. Low
temperatures will be near normal, mostly in the lower and middle
30s and feeling 5 to 10 degrees colder at times factoring in
the wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure remains over the area during this period with a
zonal flow aloft for most of the time. Continued dry, and after a
mostly sunny start, clouds increase Tuesday afternoon with mid level
moisture increasing with the approach of a shortwave. Still somewhat
breezy on Tuesday with highs 45-50. Winds back from W to SW Tuesday
night as they diminish. Low temperatures therefore not as cold as
tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Blustery and cool late Wed into Thu, and again Sun into Mon
A piece of the polar vortex, more of a PV split per say takes shape
across Southern Canada this week. This will result in our region
being under the influence of this PV split and getting into cP air
masses for duration of this week as a couple of cold fronts /
reinforcing surface troughs pivot through the area. Blustery and
cooler conditions are expected in the wake of the cold frontal
passages late Wed into Thu. Some wind chills are expected to get
into the upper teens and lower 20s Thu morning.
A southern branch feature will attempt to merge with pacific branch
energy Fri and Fr night in the SE states. This may result in enough
energy getting bundled to bring low pressure into or very close to
the area for the start of the weekend. However, there is a good
share of the global deterministic guidance that keeps the energy
more separate, and thus model solutions with the low remaining
mainly offshore. Thus, leaned more towards a consensus solution
regarding PoPs and thus was fairly close to the NBM with only some
minor adjustments. If precip does get into the CWA this weekend the
mostly likely time frame would be Fri night into the first half of
Saturday from mainly the primary low off to the west. A light wintry
mix is possible across far northern and interior sections, but any
precip is expected to be very light. If the coastal low did get
closer to the area than consensus, then the likelihood of precip
would increase for the entire day Sat and Sat night, but this does
not appear as likely at this point.
As low pressure gets offshore later in the weekend and high pressure
builds north of the area Sunday into Monday the pressure gradient
should increase. This will result in blustery and cool conditions to
begin next week.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will remain over the Canadian Maritimes through
Tuesday.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
WNW gusty flow for NYC terminals tonight, subsiding for some
terminals overnight and then all terminals have gusty WNW winds
on Tuesday, eventually becoming more westerly in the latter half
of the afternoon.
Winds speeds 10-15 kt tonight for NYC terminals, less than 10
kts outside of NYC terminals, increasing to near 15 kt on
Tuesday. Gusts will be near 20 kt for NYC terminals tonight.
Gusts near 20-25 kt forecast on Tuesday for all terminals
towards late morning and through the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts could be intermittent at times tonight, could drop off for
several hours. Start and end time of gusts could be 1-3 hours
off on Tuesday.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: VFR. W gusts diminish.
Wednesday: A brief period of MVFR possible in shwrs. Gusty W flow
becoming NW aft 21Z.
Thursday: VFR. Gusty NW flow.
Friday: VFR with light winds thru 21Z. MVFR or lower overnight with
rain. Mixed pcpn possible interior. Strengthening E winds.
Saturday: MVFR or lower in the mrng, then becoming VFR with a wind
shift to the W.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds increase a little tonight as the pressure gradient tightens
over the waters. Looks like 25kt gusts will be widespread and
frequent enough to add the non-ocean waters to the SCA at least for
Tuesday. There could be occasional gusts to 25kt however tonight.
Otherwise, SCA remains on the ocean for both winds and seas tonight
and Tuesday. The advisory here is now extended through 06z Wednesday
with still some gusts reaching criteria in the evening, and a
westerly fetch long enough to maintain seas up to 5 ft as well. The
advisory on the ocean might need to be extended even more
eventually.
Small craft conditions will become increasingly likely for the
ocean, and for at least the western near shore zones Wednesday. All
of the coastal waters should have small craft winds by Wednesday
night behind a cold frontal passage. Gales are even a possibility on
the ocean and the nearshore waters late Wed night and into a
portion of Thursday. High pressure should build to the north with
the pressure gradient weakening and the return of sub small craft
conditions from west to east late Thursday and Thursday night.
During Friday the winds will switch around to a more southerly
direction, with small craft conditions possibly returning at some
point in the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with minimum relativity
values averaging around 30 percent and gusts 20-25 mph. Coordination
with state partners is ongoing, and it is possible that a Special
Weather Statement is issued for at least southern Connecticut to
address elevated fire weather concerns during Tuesday, particularly
in the afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JE
NEAR TERM...JC/MW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/JE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/JE