discussion on 2024-03-18

000
FXUS61 KOKX 190305
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1105 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure shifts through tonight, otherwise weak
high pressure will be in control through Tuesday night. A
series of cold fronts then pushes through mid week. High
pressure will be over the area Thursday night into Friday. An
offshore low may scrape the area Saturday, followed by high
pressure building north of the area later in the weekend and
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Increased clouds with otherwise no other significant changes
made to the forecast database. Forecast remains on track.

With one trough of low pressure offshore, another trough is
expected to move through late tonight. Not enough moisture with
either trough for showers, so remaining dry tonight. It`ll be
somewhat breezy however as we remain in between low pressure
meandering over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure trying
to build in from the SW, leaving us with a relatively tight
pressure gradient. Low temperatures will be near normal, mostly
in the lower and middle 30s and feeling 5 to 10 degrees colder
at times factoring in the wind.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure remains over the area during this period with a
zonal flow aloft for most of the time. Continued dry, and after a
mostly sunny start, clouds increase Tuesday afternoon with mid level
moisture increasing with the approach of a shortwave. Still somewhat
breezy on Tuesday with highs 45-50. Winds back from W to SW Tuesday
night as they diminish. Low temperatures therefore not as cold as
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Blustery and cool late Wed into Thu, and again Sun into Mon

A piece of the polar vortex, more of a PV split per say takes shape
across Southern Canada this week. This will result in our region
being under the influence of this PV split and getting into cP air
masses for duration of this week as a couple of cold fronts /
reinforcing surface troughs pivot through the area. Blustery and
cooler conditions are expected in the wake of the cold frontal
passages late Wed into Thu. Some wind chills are expected to get
into the upper teens and lower 20s Thu morning.

A southern branch feature will attempt to merge with pacific branch
energy Fri and Fr night in the SE states. This may result in enough
energy getting bundled to bring low pressure into or very close to
the area for the start of the weekend. However, there is a good
share of the global deterministic guidance that keeps the energy
more separate, and thus model solutions with the low remaining
mainly offshore. Thus, leaned more towards a consensus solution
regarding PoPs and thus was fairly close to the NBM with only some
minor adjustments. If precip does get into the CWA this weekend the
mostly likely time frame would be Fri night into the first half of
Saturday from mainly the primary low off to the west. A light wintry
mix is possible across far northern and interior sections, but any
precip is expected to be very light. If the coastal low did get
closer to the area than consensus, then the likelihood of precip
would increase for the entire day Sat and Sat night, but this does
not appear as likely at this point.

As low pressure gets offshore later in the weekend and high pressure
builds north of the area Sunday into Monday the pressure gradient
should increase. This will result in blustery and cool conditions to
begin next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure will remain over the Canadian Maritimes through
Tuesday.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

WNW gusty flow tonight will subside for some terminals
overnight and then all terminals have gusty WNW winds on
Tuesday. The wind direction eventually becomes more westerly in
the latter half of the afternoon Tuesday.

Winds speeds mainly 10-15 kt through tonight, with some
terminals expected to have winds more in the 5-10 kt range.
Winds overall increase to near 15 kt on Tuesday. Gusts will be
mostly near 20 kt tonight but will diminish for some terminals
overnight into early Tuesday morning. Gusts near 20-25 kt are
forecast on Tuesday for all terminals towards late morning and
through the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts could be intermittent at times tonight, could drop off for
several hours. Start and end time of gusts could be 1-3 hours
off on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: VFR. W gusts diminish.

Wednesday: A brief period of MVFR possible. Chance of rain showers
mid afternoon through early evening. W wind gusts near 20-25
kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW wind gusts near 25-30 kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR during the day into early evening. MVFR or
lower at times overnight with chances for rain and snow.

Saturday: MVFR or lower at times. Chances for rain and snow
early north and west of NYC. Otherwise, chances for rain
elsewhere. NW wind gusts around 20 kt on average.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Winds increase a little tonight as the pressure gradient tightens
over the waters. Looks like 25kt gusts will be widespread and
frequent enough to add the non-ocean waters to the SCA at least for
Tuesday. There could be occasional gusts to 25kt however tonight.
Otherwise, SCA remains on the ocean for both winds and seas tonight
and Tuesday. The advisory here is now extended through 06z Wednesday
with still some gusts reaching criteria in the evening, and a
westerly fetch long enough to maintain seas up to 5 ft as well. The
advisory on the ocean might need to be extended even more
eventually.

Small craft conditions will become increasingly likely for the
ocean, and for at least the western near shore zones Wednesday. All
of the coastal waters should have small craft winds by Wednesday
night behind a cold frontal passage. Gales are even a possibility on
the ocean and the nearshore waters late Wed night and into a
portion of Thursday. High pressure should build to the north with
the pressure gradient weakening and the return of sub small craft
conditions from west to east late Thursday and Thursday night.
During Friday the winds will switch around to a more southerly
direction, with small craft conditions possibly returning at some
point in the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with minimum relativity
values averaging around 30 percent and gusts 20-25 mph. Coordination
with state partners is ongoing, and it is possible that a Special
Weather Statement is issued for at least southern Connecticut to
address elevated fire weather concerns during Tuesday, particularly
in the afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JE
NEAR TERM...JC/JM/MW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/JE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/JE