000
FXUS61 KOKX 190949
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
549 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will be in control through early
Wednesday as a weak trough passes offshore. A cold front then pushes
through the region on Wednesday. High pressure then settles
over the region Thursday into Friday ahead of a frontal system
and associated low pressure Friday night into Saturday. High
pressure should then return Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track this morning. Update made to account
for the mid cloud deck that is heading into northwest sections
of the CWA earlier than previous forecast.
GOES-16 6.95 um WV imagery and 500mb analysis depicts a
positively tilted trough clearing the east coast this morning,
as an associated surface trough pushes offshore. Behind this
feature, northwest flow and cold air advection continues to keep
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s early this morning.
In the wake of these features, decent model agreement on a more
zonal mid level flow taking shape by this afternoon with high
pressure located to the southwest of the area. Dry and sunny
conditions across the the CWA are likely today as sfc winds shift to
the west/southwest this afternoon. This will result in increased
cloud cover from the west as mid level moisture advection increases
in association with a weak mid level shortwave that is progged to
traverse the interior. Given the dry low levels and weak lapse
rates, not expecting any precipitation.
NW winds will increase and become gusty throughout the day, 20-25kts
at the peak. High temperatures near or just below normal, in the
upper 40s to near 50 per NBM.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Aforementioned zonal flow becomes more amplified as a closed mid and
upper low over Quebec sends a trough though the region on Wednesday.
At the surface, low pressure heading northeast from Ontario into
Quebec by Wednesday afternoon will drag a cold front through the CWA
by Wednesday evening. Shower chances increase by afternoon as the
front approaches. The system does not have a lot of moisture to work
with, with PW less than 0.25" and thermal profiles suggestive of
light rain showers at best for most of the area. The one exception
may be across far northwestern sections, NW Orange and Putnam
counties, where some snow showers may mix in very briefly at the
end. Highs tomorrow a few degrees warmer than Tuesday under WSW
flow, though afternoon cloud cover may mitigate somewhat depending on
how quickly they overspread.
Behind the front on Wednesday night into Thursday, dry and blustery
conditions prevail with cold air advection under gusty northwest
flow. Highs on Thursday will struggle to get into the mid 40s, with
wind chills making it feel like the low to mid 30s. Thursday AM wind
chills will feel even colder, in the teens to low 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
There are still fairly significant differences among the
deterministic and ensemble models for Friday night into Saturday.
However, there is an increasing probability for a period of
unsettled conditions during this time frame.
*Key Points*
*A cold night is in store Thursday night with lows in the 20s for
most locations as high pressure settles over the region.
*Dry conditions will continue on Friday with temperatures remaining
below average in the lower to middle 40s.
*Probabilities for precipitation have increased Friday night into
Saturday. The overall pattern supports potential of a wintry mix
inland at the onset, with mainly rain into Saturday.
*Mainly dry conditions are currently expected Sunday, which should
prevail into early next week.
*Temperatures should be below normal Sunday and Monday, potentially
above normal by next Tuesday.
Upper ridging Thursday night into Friday will give way to a split
flow regime into the weekend. There will be a southern stream system
moving across the southeast on Friday. At the same time, a frontal
boundary associated with a northern stream upper trough over
southern Canada will be approaching into Friday night. The latest
modeling is still disagreeing with the amount of interaction between
the two streams as both the frontal boundary and southern low emerge
along the east coast. The modeling that shows more
interaction/phasing leads to widespread precip late Friday night
into Saturday. Other guidance with less interaction bring a period
of precip Friday night with the front, but keep the associated low
pressure well to our south. Another scenario that is depicted by
some of the latest guidance is for the southern stream to become cut-
off near southeast coast with the associated low, or pieces of the
low, nearing the LI coast into Sunday. Due to the continued large
spread in the guidance and uncertainty with both the northern and
southern stream systems, have stayed close to the NBM during this
time frame.
As noted above, PoPs have increased Friday night into Saturday.
The latest NBM probabilities for greater than 1 inch of rain in 24
hours have also increased over the last day and are now 30 to 50
percent, highest NYC on east.
High pressure should return Sunday into early next week although the
timing of this may depend on if the southern low hangs around a bit
longer than currently anticipated.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through the TAF period.
WNW-NW winds will continue to weaken before day break with most
locations around 10 kt or less. Winds increase after day break,
becoming around 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Winds begin to back
towards the W in the afternoon and then SW in the evening. Gusts
will end in the evening, 23-02z, with sustained speeds falling below
10 kt overnight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Start time of frequent gusts may be 1-2 hours off from TAF.
Gusts could be a few kt higher at times this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late tonight: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR possible in a few showers in the
afternoon and early evening. SW wind gusts near 20-25 kt, becoming
NW at night.
Thursday: VFR. NW wind gusts near 25-30 kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR through early evening. MVFR or lower possible
overnight with chances for rain near coast and rain/snow inland.
Saturday: MVFR or lower at times. Mainly rain likely. SE wind gusts
20-25 kt during the day, becoming NW at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Westerly wind gusts will increase through the morning eventually
becoming widespread across all waters. The SCA remains in effect on
the ocean for both winds and seas into early Wednesday as a westerly
fetch will allow waves to remain elevated.
Small craft conditions then return for the ocean and western near
shore zones Wednesday. Gales are also a possibility on the ocean and
the nearshore waters late Wed night and into early Thursday. Sub SCA
conditions then return late Thursday as the pressure gradient
relaxes. A weakening pressure gradient Thursday night will lead to winds
beginning to fall below SCA levels, especially late. Conditions will
then remain below SCA until late Friday night into early Saturday
morning with a return to SCA wind gusts on the ocean. This may then
spread to the non-ocean waters on Saturday and continue Saturday
night as a frontal system and low pressure move across the waters.
Ocean seas will also become elevated during this time frame.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with minimum RH values
averaging around 35 percent and gusts 20-25 mph especially across
southern CT. Per coordination with surrounding offices and fire
weather partners, no special weather statements will be issued
for Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Thursday. While the
chance for widespread precipitation has increased a bit over the
last 24 hours for Friday night into Saturday, no hydrologic
impacts are currently anticipated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/DS
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DBR/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DBR/DS