000
FXUS61 KOKX 232347
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
747 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure along the southern New Jersey coast tracks
northeastward, passing east and north of the area this evening.
High pressure starts to build in from the north and west
tonight into Tuesday. A warm front lifts north of the area
Tuesday night, followed by a cold front approaching Wednesday.
The cold front slows on Thursday before likely pushing offshore
Thu night into Friday. Weak high pressure attempts to build
Friday into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The last of the hvy rain has exited the area. The Flood Watch
has been cancelled. Will continue to watch the Yantic River for
touching minor flood. Confidence remains low so only an advy
remains in effect. Elsewhere, will start trimming the warnings
where possible as some rivers and streams recede.
With the possibility of marginal wind gusts to 40kt as the
winds shift to the north behind the low, and also for impacts,
the wind advisory remains until 06Z.
With the quick movement of the upper trough, and surface low,
high pressure builds into from the west tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in Sunday through Sunday night with dry
weather. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees below normal
tonight through Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure in Eastern Canada will ridge down the coastal plain
during Monday. The upper level low offshore will move slightly
further to the east and will allow the 500 mb ridge axis to push in
late Mon night into Tue. Thus the area will be in-between offshore
low pressure and a slowly approaching large scale trough from the
Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. Enough deep layer ridging
should be in place to provide a good deal of sunshine both days with
seasonable temperatures, with perhaps a few more clouds across far
eastern section during Mon.
Towards Tue night heights begin to fall as the large trough back to
the north and west begins to approach. Cyclonic flow aloft begins to
increase during this time and into the day on Wed. It appears that
shower activity by and large will hold off for much of Tue night.
The relatively higher chance of rain should result from a cold
frontal / occluded boundary later Wed into Wed night and Thu. The
slow nature of the movement of the upper trough and the occlusion of
the main sfc low moving north of the Great Lakes should result in a
very slow moving, if not temporarily stalled frontal boundary over
the area for a portion of Thu. Thus, have chance PoPs for rain
showers for a good portion of the midweek period for mainly Wed
through the day Thu. Much of NWP guidance then has low pressure
forming along the boundary down to the south, however the boundary
should get offshore enough Thu night into Fri to spare the area a
significant rain event. The wind direction should be more northerly
than easterly, thus the consensus has more significant precip to the
east and the moisture likely shallow in nature as higher pressure
attempts to nudge in from the south and west on Fri. Confidence
regarding Thu night into Fri remains below average as the set up for
this is not all that different than the storm for this current
weekend, and that storm tracked west of the medium range guidance.
So this is just something to keep in mind as the late week forecast
may change. At this point the start of next weekend looks primarily
dry, although there remains some uncertainty with the timing of the
next shortwave and warm front. For the time being keeping Sat
primarily dry.
Stuck fairly close to the NBM for the most part, with bigger
difference with cloud cover on Tue (went below NBM sky coverage),
and also made some adjustments with PoP for late Tue night through
Thu. Temperatures will be primarily a few degrees above normal for
the mid to late week period. The exception will likely be Fri with
cold air advection and temperatures likely right around normal.
Temperatures then are expected to turn a touch milder into the start
of next weekend for Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure and a cold front have moved east of the NYC
terminals and remains near eastern Long Island and Connecticut.
High pressure builds into the region behind the cold front.
Mainly MVFR with some isolated IFR or VFR as conditions begin to
improve. Expect VFR conditions at most if not all terminals by
3z.
Winds increase this evening post-front, becoming mostly NW. NW gusts
this evening 30-40kt. North winds gradually weaken through the
day Sunday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for improving conditions. Gusts may be
occasional overnight at some terminals.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR. NE gusts 20-25 kt.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.
Wednesday Night - Thursday: VFR. MVFR possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Made some minor adjustments to the start time of the gale
warning for the non ocean waters as winds will be ramping up as
the low moves away from the region, with northern winds and
gusts increasing, and started at 22Z. Winds on the ocean waters,
ahead of the low, were marginally at gale gusts, and the gale
remains in effect. On the non ocean waters gales end late
tonight into early Sunday morning, and continue on the ocean
waters through Sunday morning. Once the gales end SCA gusts on
the non ocean waters continues into Sunday afternoon, and on
the ocean through Sunday night. In addition, ocean seas remain
elevated above SCA through Sunday night.
Marginal gale force gusts are expected for the ocean waters on
Monday, especially for the more eastern ocean zones. Otherwise
expect small craft conditions for much of the waters on Monday into
Monday night. Ocean seas during this time will range from about 6 to
11 feet. Towards Tuesday afternoon and evening small craft
conditions should gradually go away from west to east as the
pressure gradient continues to gradually decrease. Seas however will
remain elevated on the ocean where small craft conditions continue
into Tuesday night, and possibly into Wednesday when average seas
get closer to 5 feet.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Residual flooding can be expected into Sun. The Yantic will come
close to flood stage overnight, but the modeling and current
trends continue to indicate low confidence so only an advy
remains in effect.
No hydrological impacts are anticipated at this time in the long
term.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will be increasing into early in the week
with a full moon occurring early Monday morning. In addition,
with low pressure remaining in the western Atlantic tonight into
Monday and slowly weakening, long period swells will be moving
into the waters, and winds will be from the northeast, both
increasing water levels. Widespread minor coastal flooding will
be possible across the south shore back bays during the Monday
morning high tide cycle, and will be more likely with the high
tide cycles Monday evening, Tuesday morning, and Tuesday
evening. Across the western Long Island Sound, minor coastal
flooding will be possible during the early morning and early
afternoon high tide cycles Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345.
Gale Warning until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BC/BR
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...