000
FXUS61 KOKX 241129
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
729 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The area remains between offshore low pressure and high pressure
ridging down from the north today through Tuesday. A warm front may
then move through or near the area from the east late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. A cold front approaches on Wednesday and slowly
moves through Wednesday night through Thursday night. Weak high
pressure then builds in Friday into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast is on track this morning. Only minor adjustments
were made to capture the current obs and trends. Otherwise, low
pressure that brought yesterday`s rain is now well offshore and
will continue to push northeast. There is some lingering cloud
cover over the eastern half of the area that will slowly clear
this morning. Clear skies can been seen across the western half.
Strong winds behind the system have lowered and are now below
Wind Advisory criteria. However, gusty conditions will continue
through the morning as high pressure noses down from the north,
keeping a tight pressure gradient over the area as colder and
drier air filters in.
Heights rise aloft today as ridging builds over the eastern CONUS.
Just offshore to our southeast an upper level trough becomes closed
off and associated surface low strengthens in place through tonight.
After a bit of a lull in the winds today, the pressure gradient
tightens tonight due to this offshore low and the high to the north.
The orientation of these features will bring a gusty northeast flow
to the area by the late afternoon/early evening and through the
night.
Highs today will be below normal for late March, low to mid 40s.
Expect plenty of sunshine for the western half of the area.
While clouds will slowly clear this morning for the eastern
half, some lingering high clouds are possible for far eastern
locations. Lows tonight will range from the low 20s to the mid
30s. The colder end of the that range will be seen across the
the far northern and western interior where the pressure
gradient will be the weakest and therefore winds will be the
lowest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface pattern remains the same for Monday through Tuesday
night. The high to the north will slowly shift farther north and
the low offshore will weaken and shift farther southeast. The
prolonged gusty northeasterly flow will continue through this
period. Later on Tuesday into Tuesday night some guidance is
showing the offshore low sending a warm front or inverted
surface trough towards our area. This feature could bring light
rain to the area and followed NBM given uncertainty. Slight
chance PoPs start Tuesday. Can also expect cloud cover to
increase starting late Monday night.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will be right around or just below
normal, upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cloudy for Wednesday with low level moisture already in place.
Moisture deepens as the day wears on with convergence along a weak
cold front pushing in from the west. Chance of rain everywhere, but
becoming likely for the western zones late in the day.
The cold front will slowly move east as the parent low north of the
Great Lakes heads more north than east in a highly amplified
longwave pattern aloft. The front enters the forecast area Wednesday
night and slows down as shortwave energy rounding the base of the
longwave trough attempts to strengthen low pressure off the
Carolina/Mid-Atlantic coast. Have gone with low-end likely PoPs
Wednesday night for the entire area, with rain remaining likely for
approximately the eastern half of the forecast area Thursday into
Thursday evening. Divergence from an upper jet keeps the threat of
rain late Thursday night. Kept in chance of rain for Friday to
account for some uncertainty, but it`s beginning to look like a dry
day as high pressure builds in behind the departing cold front and
jet streak. A trough of low pressure shifts through on Saturday, but
with limited moisture, expecting a dry day for Saturday. Moisture
associated with a weak low and a warm front well off to the west
probably slides by to our south Saturday night, keeping us dry.
High temperatures Wednesday through Saturday generally in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds into the region through tonight.
VFR. N Winds with gusts around 25kt. Frequent gusts end mid to
late afternoon, then N to NE sustained winds 10-15kt tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR. NE gusts 20-25 kt.
Tuesday: MVFR with a chance of light rain/drizzle.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of rain.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR with rain likely.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The Gale Warning on the non ocean waters has been allowed to expire
and replaced with a Small Craft Advisory. The SCA is for 25 kt gusts
through about 4 PM, but may be able to come down sooner. The SCA for
the eastern Sound zone is also for 5 ft waves and is in effect
through Monday night and will likely need to be extended. The Gale
Warning remains on the ocean waters for lingering 35 kt gusts
through about noon.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are then expected for some time due
to the area being between low pressure offshore and high pressure
building in from the north. Although there will be some lull
periods, expect wind gusts around 20-25 kt through Tuesday. Waves on
the ocean will remain elevated as well. Expect 10 to 12 feet early
today and then mainly 8 to 11 feet through Tuesday night.
Seas will then remain elevated on the ocean where small craft
conditions continue through Wednesday night, and possibly into
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
All rivers and streams that were in flood from yesterday`s rain have
receded. Hydrologic products are not longer in effect.
There is the potential of up to an inch rainfall Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday night. Being spread out over this much time, no
hydrologic impacts are currently anticipated.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will be increasing early this week with a full
moon occurring early Monday morning. In addition, with low pressure
remaining in the western Atlantic tonight into Monday and slowly
weakening, long period swells will be moving into the waters, and
winds will be from the northeast, both increasing water levels.
Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south
shore back bays of Nassau and Queens during the Monday morning high
tide cycle. Widespread minor flooding is more likely during the
Monday evening high tide cycle, and this could occur from the south
shore back bays from western Suffolk County westward all the way
through NY Harbor. Shores along western half of LI Sound may also
see widespread minor coastal flooding. Additionally, moderate
flooding thresholds may be touched Monday evening for the south
shore back bays of Nassau and Queens.
Additional rounds of minor coastal flooding will be possible for all
of the above mentioned locations for the Tuesday morning and
nighttime tide cycles, with possibly parts of eastern Suffolk County
reaching minor thresholds as well.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ332.
Gale Warning until noon EDT today for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...