000
FXUS61 KOKX 241936
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
336 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure noses in from the north Sunday night through Monday as
a low pressure system strengthens far offshore to our southeast. Weakening
high pressure through the middle of the week gives way to low
pressure passing offshore for the end of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure continues to nose in from the north tonight with a
building ridge aloft. At the same, a closed low and trough to our
southeast will strengthen. This leads to continued breezy northeast
winds from an increased pressure gradient this evening into tonight.
This will prevent significant radiational cooling tonight. Lows will
be in the low-30s to mid-20s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The surface pattern remains the same for Monday. The high to the
north will slowly shift farther north and the low offshore will
weaken and shift farther southeast. The prolonged gusty
northeasterly flow will continue through this Monday. Winds should
remain below wind advisory criteria.

Highs will be in the low-50s to upper-40s on Monday with lows MOnday
night in the low/mid-30s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pres ridging swd across the area on Tue will gradually weaken
thru Wed. At the same time, a deep marine layer is modeled to come
in from the Atlc. The models are in good agreement with this. Ovc
skies develop Tue with chances for light rain. Perhaps more of a
sprinkles scenario. As winds decrease Tue ngt and Wed, better chance
for light rain and dz to break out across the area. Kept the light
rain and dz in the fcst thru Wed, then as then next upr trof
approaches, transitioned to just rain chances Wed ngt thru Fri. This
setup is progged to induce low pres development along the East
Coast, with the lows or main low to track offshore and towards the N
Atlc by Fri ngt. The prime window for rain is Thu and Thu ngt attm,
but this could change depending on the speed of the upr trof. The
models are in good agreement however, so stuck with the NBM pops
which produces categorical on Thu. A more zonal flow aloft develops
next weekend. This should be a dry setup at least Sat. Cannot rule
out embedded energy in the flow producing some rain chances on Sun
per the GFS, but there is not enough consensus among the other
models at this point, so the NBM yields a dry fcst and that was
accepted. The NBM with local adjustments was used for temps thru the
entire extended.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the north through tonight, and remains
through Monday.

VFR.

N winds with gusts 20-25kt, ending 20Z to 21Z. North winds gradually
become more northeast late this evening and overnight, with speeds
increasing along the coast. Gusts around 20kt may also develop at
the coastal terminals toward Monday sunrise. Monday winds and gusts
will be the highest at the coastal terminals.


    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected. Gusts Monday may be as much
as 5 knots higher at KJFK and KLGA.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon: VFR. NE gusts 20-25 kt, mostly at the coastal
terminals.

Tuesday: MVFR with a chance of light rain/drizzle. There is a chance
of IFR late in the day and Tuesday night.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of light rain and drizzle.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR with rain.

Friday: MVFR with a chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected for the next 7 days.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides will be increasing early this week with a full
moon occurring early Monday morning. In addition, with low pressure
remaining in the western Atlantic tonight into Monday and slowly
weakening, long period swells will be moving into the waters, and
winds will be from the northeast, both increasing water levels.

Minor coastal flooding is looking less likely along the south shore
back bays of Nassau and Queens during the Monday morning high tide
cycle, so have held off on issuing an advisory or statement. Minor
flooding is possible during the Monday evening high tide cycle, and
this could occur from the south shore back bays from western Suffolk
County westward all the way through NY Harbor. Not all guidance is
in agreement on the chance or the magnitude of coastal flooding. For
now, have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for south Queens and south
Nassau Bays with the chance to issue more should guidance come into
better agreement, which would mainly hinge on how the offshore low
trends. Shores along western half of LI Sound may also see minor
coastal flooding, but have held off on issuing an advisory for now.

Additional rounds of minor coastal flooding will be possible for all
of the above mentioned locations for the Tuesday morning and
nighttime tide cycles, with possibly parts of eastern Suffolk County
reaching minor thresholds as well.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday
     for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/BR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...