000
FXUS61 KOKX 242335
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
735 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure noses in from the north Sunday night through
Monday as a low pressure system strengthens far offshore to our
southeast. Weakening high pressure through the middle of the
week gives way to low pressure passing offshore for the end of
the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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The fcst is on track. High pressure continues to nose in from
the north tonight with a building ridge aloft. At the same, a
closed low and trough to our southeast will strengthen. This
leads to continued breezy northeast winds from an increased
pressure gradient this evening into tonight. This will prevent
significant radiational cooling tonight. Lows will be in the
low-30s to mid-20s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The surface pattern remains the same for Monday. The high to
the north will slowly shift farther north and the low offshore
will weaken and shift farther southeast. The prolonged gusty
northeasterly flow will continue through this Monday. Winds
should remain below wind advisory criteria.

Highs will be in the low-50s to upper-40s on Monday with lows
Monday night in the low/mid-30s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pres ridging swd across the area on Tue will gradually
weaken thru Wed. At the same time, a deep marine layer is
modeled to come in from the Atlc. The models are in good
agreement with this. Ovc skies develop Tue with chances for
light rain. Perhaps more of a sprinkles scenario. As winds
decrease Tue ngt and Wed, better chance for light rain and dz to
break out across the area. Kept the light rain and dz in the
fcst thru Wed, then as then next upr trof approaches,
transitioned to just rain chances Wed ngt thru Fri. This setup
is progged to induce low pres development along the East Coast,
with the lows or main low to track offshore and towards the N
Atlc by Fri ngt. The prime window for rain is Thu and Thu ngt
attm, but this could change depending on the speed of the upr
trof. The models are in good agreement however, so stuck with
the NBM pops which produces categorical on Thu. A more zonal
flow aloft develops next weekend. This should be a dry setup at
least Sat. Cannot rule out embedded energy in the flow producing
some rain chances on Sun per the GFS, but there is not enough
consensus among the other models at this point, so the NBM
yields a dry fcst and that was accepted. The NBM with local
adjustments was used for temps thru the entire extended.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the north through tonight, and
remains through Monday.

VFR.

North winds gradually become more northeast late this evening
and overnight, with speeds increasing along the coast. Gusts
around 20kt are expected to develop on Monday, with the best
chances at the coastal terminals. Also, winds and gusts will be
the highest at the coastal terminals.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected. Gusts Monday may be as much
as 5 knots higher at KJFK and KLGA.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: Mainly VFR. Diminishing winds.

Tuesday: MVFR with a chance of light rain/drizzle. There is a chance
of IFR late in the day and Tuesday night.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of light rain and drizzle.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR with rain.

Friday: MVFR with a chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Increasing NE winds thru Mon. A SCA is in effect for all
waters. Decreasing winds on Tue, but seas on the ocean will
remain 5-10 ft. Seas continue to subside thru Wed, with waves on
the ocean down into the 4-5 ft range for Thu. Increasing winds
and building seas Thu ngt thru Fri with low pres tracking over
the Atlc. There is a chance of gales especially Fri depending on
the strength of the low.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will be increasing early this week with a full
moon occurring early Monday morning. In addition, with low pressure
remaining in the western Atlantic tonight into Monday and slowly
weakening, long period swells will be moving into the waters, and
winds will be from the northeast, both increasing water levels.

Minor coastal flooding is looking less likely along the south shore
back bays of Nassau and Queens during the Monday morning high tide
cycle, so have held off on issuing an advisory or statement. Minor
flooding is possible during the Monday evening high tide cycle, and
this could occur from the south shore back bays from western Suffolk
County westward all the way through NY Harbor. Not all guidance is
in agreement on the chance or the magnitude of coastal flooding. For
now, have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for south Queens and south
Nassau Bays with the chance to issue more should guidance come into
better agreement, which would mainly hinge on how the offshore low
trends. Shores along western half of LI Sound may also see minor
coastal flooding, but have held off on issuing an advisory for now.

Additional rounds of minor coastal flooding will be possible for all
of the above mentioned locations for the Tuesday morning and
nighttime tide cycles, with possibly parts of eastern Suffolk County
reaching minor thresholds as well.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday
     for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/BR
NEAR TERM...JMC/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...