000
FXUS61 KOKX 261944
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A high pressure ridge over the area will gradually weaken through
tonight. A cold front slowly passes through the region during
Wednesday night into Thursday. Meanwhile, low pressure develops
along the southeastern coast and tracks northeast Thursday through
Friday night, passing well to the south and east. The low tracks
through the Canadian Maritimes over the weekend. A clipper type
system passes to the south and east late Saturday through early
Sunday. Another low moves through the Great Lakes region Monday and
Tuesday as a warm front approaches.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Weak high pressure is currently nosing in from the north
sandwiched between offshore low pressure to the east and low
pressure to the west. The pressure gradient will continue to
weaken tonight as the low to the east moves to far away from the
region with light N-NE winds expected tonight.
Light winds and moisture advection west to east tonight will
help aid in low cloud cover and fog, particularly for eastern
areas of the CWA. 850mb winds turn south tonight leading to warm
air advection aloft. Isentropic lift may provide isolated spots
of drizzle tonight and tomorrow morning.
Overnight lows will be in the low-40s to upper-30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Its possible the fog could be stubborn about clearing out Wednesday
morning with light winds and plenty of low level moisture. Mild for
Wednesday, with highs in the 50s.
An approaching cold front which will arrive Wednesday night will
lead to increasing chances for rain west to east Wednesday late
afternoon into Wednesday night. The front is expected to slow as it
passes Wednesday night and a developing coastal low to the south
slowly approaches.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low pressure will be developing off the southeastern coast Wednesday
night into Thursday, along a cold frontal boundary moving east of
the region Thursday, as a full amplitude upper trough also tracks
slowly to the east. A main change from previous forecasts is that
the surface low is tracking a little farther to the east, and
slightly more quickly. While a period of moderate to briefly heavy
rainfall is still possible Thursday, the axis is mainly across
southeastern Connecticut and the twin forks of Long Island. And with
the quicker timing the precipitation may be over by Friday morning,
and will have only slight chance probabilities across the eastern
areas early Friday morning.
Dry weather will be short lived Friday into early Saturday as a
clipper type system tracks quickly across the country, and lasses to
the south and east Saturday night into Sunday. With slightly above
normal temperatures Saturday into Sunday much of the area will have
rain showers, with maybe a rain/snow mix across the northern tier
Saturday night.
Weak high pressure briefly builds into the area Sunday and quickly
weakens Sunday night. A near zonal flow will bring an amplifying
trough into the central US and Great Lake region Monday into Tuesday
as a warm front with the low slowly approaches from the south. While
the NBM had likely probabilities with the system for next week
capped at chance with some uncertainties in the guidance with the
timing of the warm front, which may well be delayed with the low
remaining across the Great Lakes region.
NBM temperatures looked reasonable through the extended and were used.
Temperatures will mainly be near normal levels except slightly above
for Saturday and Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure over the region slowly weakens through tonight. A
cold front approaches on Wednesday.
MVFR stratus this afternoon will be followed by IFR stratus tonight
into early Wednesday. Fog also is forecast to develop late tonight
and last into Wednesday morning with visibilities down to MVFR to
IFR. Localized sub-IFR can be expected early Wednesday. The forecast
has some improvement to MVFR late Wednesday morning into Wednesday
afternoon but the timing of this is uncertain. Also, there is
forecast drizzle and/or very light rain but chances are low so only
have a part of late tonight mentioning this.
Winds will be generally E-NE near 10 kt into this evening, but a
little higher for KISP and KGON more in the 10-15 kt range. Gusts
expected for KGON near 20-25 kt but more occasional farther west
into early this evening. Winds tonight into Wednesday are forecast
to decrease to near 5 kts but variable at times for direction with
otherwise a general easterly direction.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of MVFR to IFR or lower may be off by 1 to 3 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday: IFR improving to MVFR. Higher chances of rain mid
afternoon into evening, becomes likely for KSWF. Rain becomes
likely for most terminals at night.
Thursday: IFR with rain, eventually tapering off late at night
except at KGON. Improvement to MVFR at night. NW wind gusts
Thursday night to near 20 kt.
Friday: MVFR early, becoming VFR in the afternoon. Slight chance
of rain early for KISP and KGON. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR
at night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W-NW wind gusts
20-25 kt day. Gusts diminish at night.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A SCA remains in place on the ocean through Weds night due mainly to
elevated seas from a lingering swell.
Ocean seas will be at SCA levels Thursday as low pressure tracks
well to the south. A strengthening northwest to north flow, behind
deepening low tracking well to the east and then northeast, will
allow for wind gusts to reach SCA levels across all the waters
Thursday night and continue through Friday night.
Conditions slowly improve across the western waters during Saturday,
and then the eastern waters Saturday evening, as the low tracks
through the Canadian Maritimes, and high pressure builds to the
west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Rainfall will vary widely across the region from late Wednesday
through Thursday night, ranging from around 0.5 inches across the
Lower Hudson Valley to as much as 1.75 inches across southeastern
Connecticut and the twin forks of Long Island. The axis of the
heavier rainfall has shifted slightly to the east.
Given the current flash flood guidance, not anticipating hydrologic
impacts.
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated for the weekend and into early
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
One more round of minor flooding is likely this evening per latest
bias corrected surge guidance. Have issued advisories for tonight`s
high tide cycles for S Nassau and S Fairfield/Westchester, where
water levels will be at least a couple of tenths of a foot above
minor thresholds, with inundation up to 1/2 ft AGL. Also issued a
statement for most of the NY/NJ harbor area where water levels may
touch minor thresholds in spots, especially along Newark Bay and in
the NJ Meadowlands near the tidal Hackensack River.
Guidance may be took quick to lower surge thereafter, and may have
to watch the Wed night high tide cycle for one more high tide cycle
with water levels touching minor thresholds along parts of the S
Fairfield coast after midnight.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
Wednesday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
Wednesday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
tonight for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...