000
FXUS61 KOKX 271452
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1052 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaches today and passes offshore early
Thursday. Low pressure develops along the front and tracks east
of the area Friday. A clipper type system passes to the south
and east late Saturday through early Sunday. Another low moves
through the Great Lakes region Monday and Tuesday as a warm
front approaches.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Made some minor changes with dewpoints, lowered temperatures a
few degrees, mainly across coastal sections. Also adjusted POPs
for light rain and drizzle. Drier conditions prevailing thus far
this morning with some patchy fog across eastern coastal
sections but not dense.
Expecting an increase in chances of light rain and drizzle this
afternoon especially the latter half with forecasted increases
in low level omega. Models also indicate an increase in
precipitable water, with much of the area containing near 1 inch
precipitable water late this afternoon into early this evening.
BUFKIT soundings indicate a moisture increase from surface to
around 15kft with some drier intervals vertically in between.
High temperatures expected generally in the low to mid 50s for
much of the region this afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A 150+ kt h2 jet provides upr divergence tngt. The response
should be moisture convergence and lift across the cwa based on
the position of the jet. As a result, the fcst is for periods
of rain and dz across the entire cwa and went well abv the NBM
pops for many areas.
Much of the same for the first part of Thu, then the nature of
the sys transitions as low pres begins to deepen over the Atlc.
Uncertainty with the modeling. The 00Z ECMWF is well E of the
benchmark with the low. The NAM, GEM, and GFS are left of the
track but still E of the benchmark. This favors ern areas for
getting into the rain shield on the wrn side of the low Thu aftn
and eve, and less rain elsewhere. Any further ewd trend could
relegate most of the pcpn to the ocean. NW winds lock in by
aftn, then gradually increase Thu ngt as they respond to the
falling pres. The low doesn`t really get going until Fri aftn
based on the progs, and by that time, it is expected to be 200
to 300 miles E of Montauk and pulling away. Stuck with drying
NBM pops from W to E Fri, with brisk winds Fri into Fri ngt.
NBM temps with local adjustments were used.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term period and stuck fairly
close to previous forecast/NBM.
Dry weather is expected Saturday. A clipper type system is expected
to pass south and east of the region Saturday night into early
Sunday. With slightly above normal temperatures Saturday into Sunday
much of the area will have rain showers, with maybe a rain/snow mix
across the northern tier Saturday night.
Weak high pressure briefly builds into the area Sunday and
quickly weakens Sunday night. A near zonal flow will bring an
amplifying trough into the central US and Great Lake region
Monday into Tuesday as a warm front with the low slowly approaches
from the south. The NBM continues to show some likely probabilities
with the system for next week, but will continue to keep POPS capped
at chance with some uncertainties in the guidance with the timing of
the warm front, which may well be delayed with the low remaining
across the Great Lakes region.
NBM temperatures looked reasonable through the extended and
were used. Temperatures will mainly be near normal levels except
slightly above for Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front slowly approaches today and tonight.
Mainly MVFR conditions expected this morning. A light onshore
flow, will result in the possibility of mist, fog, and drizzle
today. There is a chance we see a period today of VFR
conditions, however confidence remains low on timing and
duration so will keep in TEMPO for now. Conditions fall back to
MVFR/IFR tonight, with areas possibly falling below IFR after
06z.
Rain is expected to develop become more steady across KSWF
around 18z, eventually moving into all the terminals around or
after 00Z Thursday.
Light winds around or under 5 kt may be a bit variable in
direction, but with an easterly component through early this
afternoon. Southerly flow becomes more established this
afternoon, though speeds remain light. The light and variable
winds will continue into tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of category changes may be off by several hours. A period
of VFR conditions will be possible this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: IFR with rain, eventually tapering off late at night
except at KGON. Improvement to MVFR at night. NW wind gusts
Thursday night to near 20 kt.
Friday: MVFR early, becoming VFR in the afternoon. Slight chance
of rain early for KISP and KGON. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR
at night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W-NW wind gusts
20-25 kt day. Gusts diminish at night.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A sca remains in effect on the ocean thru tngt, then seas around
4 ft on Thu. Winds increase Fri with a sca or mrgnl gale
possible Fri and Fri ngt. Conditions slowly improve across the
western waters during Saturday, and then the eastern waters
Saturday evening, as the low tracks through the Canadian
Maritimes, and high pressure builds to the west.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated into early next week,
unless an unexpected shift occurs with the storm sys on Thu.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The overnight guidance generally keeps all areas blw minor
flood thresholds today and tngt. The extreme high end of the
ensemble spread suggests a low prob to hit minor during the eve
high tide cycle for the usual spots on the South Shore. Due to
the low prob of occurrence and limited impacts if it does, an
advy/statement has not been issued attm.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/MW
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC