000
FXUS61 KOKX 271831
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
231 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will continue to approach from the west for tonight.
This front will weaken and eventually move across Thursday. The
front and a developing area of low pressure to the southeast of
this front will move east of the region Thursday night. The low
pressure develops along the front and tracks east of the area
Friday. A clipper type system passes to the south and east late
Saturday through early Sunday. Another low moves through the
Great Lakes region Monday and Tuesday as a warm front
approaches.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A cold front continues to approach from the west.

Clouds have been less coverage for eastern sections of the
region for Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut.
Temperatures in these locations have risen into the mid to upper
50s as a result, except anywhere along the immediate coast with
onshore flow where temperatures are closer to 50.

Clouds have been persistent across western sections of the
region for Northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and
Western Long Island as well as Southwest CT. Temperatures here
are on track. Farther east though, the temperatures had to be
raised several degrees on average.

Starting to see on Doppler radar some areas of light rain
develop and move into parts of the Lower Hudson Valley. Would
expect the Lower Hudson Valley to have more widespread rain by
early evening with overall chances increasing for rain elsewhere
as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper level jet streak SW to NE continues to approach from the
west tonight. From forecast models, it appears that the local
region gets closer to the right rear quadrant of this jet streak
late tonight into early Thursday morning. There will be
increasing divergence aloft, with vertical lift increasing
tonight. Rain will overspread the region from west to east,
intensifying overnight into early Thursday morning. Rain looks
to be stratiform rain mostly.

At the surface, the cold front continues to approach tonight while
simultaneously weakening. Layer precipitable water reaches near
1 to 1.2 inches, above climatology.

Low temperatures are a blend of consensus or raw model data and the
NBM 50th percentile, staying in the low to mid 40s.

Aloft on Thursday, the upper level jet streak will continue to be
maximized north and west of the region, thereby with the local
region remaining near the right rear quad. On a larger scale, the
upper level trough becomes more negatively tilted. Meanwhile at the
surface, the cold front will continue to weaken and move across the
region during the day.

The front may very dissipate during the afternoon. During the
afternoon, low pressure in the Atlantic will be moving northeast and
will become more of a factor in terms of the local weather. The
forecast has more northerly flow across the entire area Thursday
afternoon, but not that gusty until towards the evening.

High temperatures Thursday are a blend of consensus of raw model
data and the NBM, only getting into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Rain will continue through the day especially along the coast
where divergence aloft appears greater in the models. The
divergence is less across the interior areas and with drier air
moving in, chances for rain will lower during the afternoon
across these interior locations, mainly across interior
Northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley.

NW winds lock in by Thu aftn, then gradually increase Thu night as
they respond to the falling pres. The low doesn`t really get
going until Fri aftn based on the progs, and by that time, it is
expected to be 200 to 300 miles E of Montauk and pulling away.
Stuck with drying NBM pops from W to E Fri, with brisk winds Fri
into Fri night.

NBM temps with local adjustments were used Thu through Fri night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term period and stuck fairly
close to previous forecast/NBM.

Dry weather is expected Saturday. A clipper type system is expected
to pass south and east of the region Saturday night into early
Sunday. With slightly above normal temperatures Saturday into Sunday
much of the area will have rain showers, with maybe a rain/snow mix
across the northern tier Saturday night.

Weak high pressure briefly builds into the area Sunday and
quickly weakens Sunday night. A near zonal flow will bring an
amplifying trough into the central US and Great Lake region
Monday into Tuesday as a warm front with the low slowly approaches
from the south. The NBM continues to show some likely probabilities
with the system for next week, but will continue to keep POPS capped
at chance with some uncertainties in the guidance with the timing of
the warm front, which may well be delayed with the low remaining
across the Great Lakes region.

NBM temperatures looked reasonable through the extended and
were used. Temperatures will mainly be near normal levels except
slightly above for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A cold front slowly approaches today and tonight from the west.
A wave of low pressure then approaches from the south into
Thursday.

VFR conditions have become more widespread for the terminals
early this afternoon. Showers continue to develop to the west
which will slowly move into the area this afternoon and into
this evening. MVFR cigs will move in with these showers into
this evening. Cigs likely continue to lower to IFR for most
terminals by 4Z with rain becoming more widespread. LIFR
conditions will be possible for all terminals overnight, though
coastal and outlying terminals (KISP, KGON, KBDR, KHPN) may
have a higher chance of seeing LIFR cigs overnight and into
Thursday morning. IFR conditions likely continue much of the
day Thursday with rain continuing. Slight improvements to MVFR
are possible Thursday afternoon for the NYC terminals.

Winds will be fairly light at around 5 kt out of the N/NE
through the overnight and into the Thursday morning push. Winds
then shift to the NW and increase to 10-15kt Thursday late
morning into the afternoon.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of category changes may be off by several hours. LIFR
cigs possible overnight but timing and coverage uncertain.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon: IFR with rain, eventually tapering off late
at night except at KGON. Improvement to MVFR late afternoon into
the overnight. NW wind gusts Thursday night to near 20 kt.

Friday: MVFR early, becoming VFR in the afternoon. Slight chance
of rain early for KISP and KGON. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR
at night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W-NW wind gusts
20-25 kt day. Gusts diminish at night.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.

Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Forecast remains on track overall.

A sca remains in effect on the ocean thru tngt, then seas around
4 ft on Thu. Winds increase Fri with a sca or mrgnl gale
possible Fri and Fri ngt. Conditions slowly improve across the
western waters during Saturday, and then the eastern waters
Saturday evening, as the low tracks through the Canadian
Maritimes, and high pressure builds to the west.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated into early next week,
unless an unexpected shift occurs with the storm sys on Thu.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The overnight guidance generally keeps all areas blw minor
flood thresholds today and tngt. The extreme high end of the
ensemble spread suggests a low prob to hit minor during the eve
high tide cycle for the usual spots on the South Shore. Due to
the low prob of occurrence and limited impacts if it does, an
advy/statement has not been issued attm.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM/JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM/BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC