000
FXUS61 KOKX 280954
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
554 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure develops along the Carolina coast today, then
tracks up the Atlantic and east of the region on Friday. The low
reaches the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday. High pressure
briefly returns Sunday before another low pressure system
impacts the region Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The fcst is on track. Rain continues this mrng with periods of
rain expected thru the day. Deep lift with the jet in a
favorable position. Heaviest rain cntrl and ern portions of the
cwa based on the trajectory of the moisture plume on water vapor
and the modeling which was in good agreement.
A 1011mb low was analyzed near KMYR at 7Z. The low is modeled to
gradually deepen thru the day, dropping about 10-15 mb by 6Z
Fri. The low will begin to get better organized by 12Z Fri as
the nrn stream trof fuels development, but at this point the
low should be E of the benchmark.
Used NBM pops for the timing of the back edge of the rain Fri
ngt. If the track and timing holds, W of the Hudson would be dry
by midnight. The rain hangs on a little longer ern zones,
particularly the Twin Forks, but there is little evidence in the
00Z runs of significant wraparound pcpn with the low, at least
for this cwa.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The low deepens significantly on Fri as it tracks towards the
Maritimes. Deep mixing on nwly flow will produce a windy day.
Although not extreme, there could be some gusts to around 35-40
mph with winds in the 25-35kt range thru h85. Some high based cu
is modeled in both the NAM and GFS due to steep low and mid lvl
lapse rates.
Breezy near the coasts Fri ngt as the flow aloft strengthens,
but the cooling bl will be a limiting factor. Temps in the 30s
per the NBM which was used.
Dry to start on Sat then there is a chance for some light rain
by late aftn and Sat ngt. There is still some uncertainty as the
clipper type low is too far S in the GFS to produce pcpn. The
ECMWF and NAM are the wetter solns. Pops about 20 percent for
this event attm. The NBM was followed for temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term period. Zonal flow
become reestablished Sunday night and yet another upper trough
and surface frontal system will be quickly approaching for
Monday. Initially, a warm front will move toward the area
Monday, and then the associated low will move slowly eastward
into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. With near seasonal
temperatures through much of the extended period, except
slightly above for Saturday and Sunday, all liquid precipitation
is expected. And NBM temperatures looked reasonable through the
extended and were used.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front slowly approaches tonight from the west. A wave of low
pressure then advances along it from the south into Thursday.
Ceilings forecast this morning remains a challenge with VFR
conditions remaining across most of the area terminals. Forecast
guidance is very good agreement that conditions are expected to
remain at least IFR for much of the day, with some terminals
sub-IFR. These lower cigs are being observed to the south and
west. Expecting the VFR conditions to hang on just a little
longer before finally falling to IFR or lower. Once we go down
to IFR or lower, we should remain there for much for a good part
of the day. Improvement to MVFR is possible late Thursday
afternoon for the NYC terminals, becoming more likely toward 00Z
Fri. A return to VFR is expected shortly thereafter.
Winds will remain fairly light and a bit variable in direction
at around 5 kt into the morning push. Winds then shift to the
NNW and increase to 10-15 kt early this afternoon. Gusts
develop toward 00Z Fri, upwards of 20 to 25 kt tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of category changes may be off by several hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night: MVFR or lower to start, gradually improving to
VFR overnight as rain comes to an end. Increasing N flow, gusts
20 to 25 kt.
Friday: MVFR early, becoming VFR in the afternoon. Slight chance
of rain early for KISP and KGON. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR
at night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W-NW wind gusts
20-25 kt day. Gusts diminish at night.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.
Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A sca remains in effect for the cntrl and ern ocean today for 5
ft seas. Wind will otherwise be lgt, but pick up tngt on all
waters as low pres develops. A sca for the protected waters and
a gale watch for the ocean remain in effect for tngt. Winds were
too mrgnl to convert the watch to a warning attm.
For Fri into Sat, solid sca cond expected. There is a chc for
gales Fri and Fri ngt, but it is too mrgnl attm to go with a
watch.
A light flow is expected Sunday through Monday as high pressure
moves through the forecast waters and conditions remain below
advisory levels across the forecast waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Up to 2 inches of additional rain is expected through tonight
across the ern half of the region. Around an inch or less is
expected elsewhere. No significant hydrologic impacts are
expected, unless the 2 inch axis of heavy rain shifts
significantly W into the more flood prone areas of the HSA.
Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are anticipated into the
middle of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday
for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353.
Gale Watch from this evening through late tonight for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC