000
FXUS61 KOKX 290945
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
545 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will deepen over the Atlantic today, tracking well
east of Cape Cod then into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. A
weak frontal system will pass thru the area late Saturday. A
series of weak waves of low pressure will track close to the
area into early next week. A deepening area of low pressure
will then track across the Lower Great Lakes region Tuesday into
Tuesday night, then slowly moves across the Northeast for the
middle of next week. The associated frontal system will impact
the area during this time.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Made some tweaks to pops based on radar. Otherwise, the fcst was
on track. Low pres taking shape over the Atlc will deepen and
continue to track away from the region thru tngt. The models
were in good agreement with this east of the benchmark low, so
the blend was followed.
Extreme ern areas will see the rain hang on thru 12Z before
completely tapering off. NW flow will increase across the entire
area thru the day with gusts around 35 mph based on a blend of
the GFS and NAM. The GFS is stronger thru the column, so gusts
could max out around 40 mph if the stronger soln verifies. Steep
lapse rates and subsidence should combine to produce some high
based flattening cu in the aftn. This could serve to reduce the
gust potential. Peak winds aloft come in around 00Z per the
GFS, but this is counterbalanced by the cooling bl. Continued
breezy overnight but blw wind advy expected attm.
Despite h85 temps around -4C, deep mixing produces high temps
right around normal. Wind chills in the 20s most places tngt due
to the winds and temps falling into the 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weak frontal sys may impact the cwa late Sat and Sat ngt. The
models still do not have a great handle on it, with the NBM only
producing pops around 20. The GFS remains the srn outlier when
compared to the NAM and ECMWF. Probs may be a little too low in
the NBM, especially because it is a light qpf event, but did not
manually adjust for now with the GFS staying south.
It will continue to be windy on Sat, especially the first half
of the day, then winds back to the W and weaken a bit. Still
breezy though with a well mixed airmass.
Warmer temps aloft and deep mixing promotes highs abv normal.
Highs near 60 possible nern NJ and NYC. There is also a chance
LI and srn CT overperforms the guidance significantly based on
the wly flow. Did not stray from the NBM yet, but the numbers
could be off by at least 5 degrees away from the immediate
shore.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the NBM/previous forecast.
A nearly zonal continues Monday and Monday night with another wave
passing nearby the area.
An upper level cutoff low moving across the central portion of the
country Monday will move into the Great Lakes region Monday night
into Tuesday. This will be associated with a deepening surface low
that sends a warm front toward the area Monday night into Tuesday,
followed by a cold frontal passage on Wednesday. The surface low
will pass north of the region, but will slow as it moves eastward,
so expecting a rather extended period of precipitation through at
least the middle part of next week. There are some timing and
evolution differences, but overall good agreement in an unsettled
period coming up. Drier weather build back into the region for the
end of the week as the low departs.
The unsettled conditions and easterly flow for the first half of the
week will result in cool, damp conditions with temperatures at or
just below normal for highs, but slightly above normal for lows due
to cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Coastal low pressure tracks up the Atlantic coast today with high
pressure building in from the west.
Rain continues across the far eastern terminals early this morning
where the rain is expected to come to an end around or shortly after
sunrise. Otherwise dry conditions are expected.
VFR expected through the TAF period. Can not rule out a brief
period of MVFR conditions at KGON where some leftover rain
continues.
NW Winds 15-20 kt with gusts 20-25kt through the early morning. The
NW Gusts increase during the day Friday with gusts 25-30kt for much
of the day. Winds slowly diminish after 00z Saturday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional tonight and early Friday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR at
night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W wind gusts near 20 kt
day. Gusts diminish at night.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into
early evening.
Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.
Tuesday: Rain with MVFR or lower conditions. E wind gusts near 20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty NW flow becoming W on Sat. A sca is in effect for all
waters thru Sat as a result. The winds diminish Sat ngt and Sun,
although seas will take longer to subside on the ocean.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels on Monday. The next
chance for a SCA will be on Tuesday and Wednesday in a
strengthening easterly flow.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC