000
FXUS61 KOKX 291316
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
916 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will deepen over the Atlantic today, tracking well
east of Cape Cod then into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. A
weak frontal system will pass through the area late Saturday. A
series of weak waves of low pressure will track close to the
area into early next week. A deepening area of low pressure will
then track across the Lower Great Lakes region Tuesday into
Tuesday night, then slowly moves across the Northeast for the
middle of next week. The associated frontal system will impact
the area during this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast on track this morning. Low pressure continues deepening
well east of Cape Cod. Back edge of thick overcast has made its
way east of the Hudson River corridor and NYC metro. The clouds
further east should begin diminishing late this morning into the
afternoon as the low tracks away from the region.
Any light rain for extreme eastern areas should end by 15z.
Otherwise, NW flow will increase across the entire area thru
the day with gusts 25-35 mph. A few gusts up to 40 mph are
possible in the afternoon, especially if winds at the top of the
mixed later are able to mix down more efficiently. Steep lapse
rates and subsidence should combine to produce some high based
flattening cu in the afternoon. This could serve to reduce the
gust potential. Winds will remain gusty tonight.
Despite h85 temps around -4C, deep mixing produces high temps
right around normal. Wind chills in the 20s most places tonight
due to the winds and temps falling into the 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A weak frontal system may impact the cwa late Sat and Sat night.
The models still do not have a great handle on it, with the NBM
only producing pops around 20. The GFS remains the southern
outlier when compared to the NAM and ECMWF. Probs may be a
little too low in the NBM, especially because it is a light qpf
event, but did not manually adjust for now with the GFS staying
south.
It will continue to be windy on Sat, especially the first half
of the day, then winds back to the W and weaken a bit. Still
breezy though with a well mixed airmass.
Warmer temps aloft and deep mixing promotes highs above normal.
Highs near 60 possible NE NJ and NYC. There is also a chance LI
and southern CT overperforms the guidance significantly based
on the westerly flow. Did not stray from the NBM yet, but the
numbers could be off by at least 5 degrees away from the
immediate shore.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the NBM/previous forecast.
A nearly zonal continues Monday and Monday night with another wave
passing nearby the area.
An upper level cutoff low moving across the central portion of the
country Monday will move into the Great Lakes region Monday night
into Tuesday. This will be associated with a deepening surface low
that sends a warm front toward the area Monday night into Tuesday,
followed by a cold frontal passage on Wednesday. The surface low
will pass north of the region, but will slow as it moves eastward,
so expecting a rather extended period of precipitation through at
least the middle part of next week. There are some timing and
evolution differences, but overall good agreement in an unsettled
period coming up. Drier weather build back into the region for the
end of the week as the low departs.
The unsettled conditions and easterly flow for the first half of the
week will result in cool, damp conditions with temperatures at or
just below normal for highs, but slightly above normal for lows due
to cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Coastal low pressure tracks up the Atlantic coast today with high
pressure building in from the west.
VFR expected through the TAF period. Can not rule out a brief
period of MVFR conditions at KGON where some leftover rain
continues through about 14z. Otherwise, dry conditions can be
expected.
NW Winds 15-20 kt with gusts 20-25kt til about 15z. NW Gusts
then increase with gusts 25-30kt for much of the day. Winds
slowly diminish after 00z Saturday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional early this morning. Can not rule out an
occasional gust higher than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR
at night. W wind gusts near 20 kt day. Gusts diminish at night.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into
early evening.
Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.
Tuesday: Rain with MVFR or lower conditions. E wind gusts near 20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Gusty NW flow becoming W on Sat. A sca is in effect for all
waters thru Sat as a result. The winds diminish Sat night and
Sun, although seas will take longer to subside on the ocean.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels on Monday. The next
chance for a SCA will be on Tuesday and Wednesday in a
strengthening easterly flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are currently expected through the
middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC