000
FXUS61 KOKX 291615
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1215 PM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure east of Cape Cod continues to deepen through
tonight as it tracks into the Canadian Maritimes. A weak frontal
system will pass through the area late Saturday. A series of
weak waves of low pressure will track close to the area into
early next week. A deepening area of low pressure will then
track across the Lower Great Lakes region Tuesday into Tuesday
night, then slowly moves across the Northeast for the middle of
next week. The associated frontal system will impact the area
during this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track this afternoon. Low pressure continues
deepening well east of Cape Cod. Back edge of thick overcast has
made its way east of much of the area except the east end of
Long Island and extreme SE CT. The lingering clouds here will
push east through 18z with mostly sunny skies taking over for
the rest of the afternoon.

A breezy NW flow will bring gusts 25-35 mph. A few gusts up to
40 mph are possible in the afternoon, especially if winds at the
top of the mixed later are able to mix down more efficiently.
Model soundings indicate much less mixing after sunset, so think
gusts will become less frequent or potentially even end
overnight.

High temps this afternoon should be near normal in the lower to
middle 50s. Lows tonight will be in the 30s for most locations.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weak frontal system may impact the cwa late Sat and Sat night.
The models still do not have a great handle on it, with the NBM
only producing pops around 20. The GFS remains the southern
outlier when compared to the NAM and ECMWF. Probs may be a
little too low in the NBM, especially because it is a light qpf
event, but did not manually adjust for now with the GFS staying
south.

It will continue to be windy on Sat, especially the first half
of the day, then winds back to the W and weaken a bit. Still
breezy though with a well mixed airmass.

Warmer temps aloft and deep mixing promotes highs above normal.
Highs near 60 possible NE NJ and NYC. There is also a chance LI
and southern CT overperforms the guidance significantly based
on the westerly flow. Did not stray from the NBM yet, but the
numbers could be off by at least 5 degrees away from the
immediate shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the NBM/previous forecast.

A nearly zonal continues Monday and Monday night with another wave
passing nearby the area.

An upper level cutoff low moving across the central portion of the
country Monday will move into the Great Lakes region Monday night
into Tuesday. This will be associated with a deepening surface low
that sends a warm front toward the area Monday night into Tuesday,
followed by a cold frontal passage on Wednesday. The surface low
will pass north of the region, but will slow as it moves eastward,
so expecting a rather extended period of precipitation through at
least the middle part of next week. There are some timing and
evolution differences, but overall good agreement in an unsettled
period coming up. Drier weather build back into the region for the
end of the week as the low departs.

The unsettled conditions and easterly flow for the first half of the
week will result in cool, damp conditions with temperatures at or
just below normal for highs, but slightly above normal for lows due
to cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Coastal low pressure tracks up the Atlantic coast today with high
pressure building in from the west.

VFR. NW gusts 25-30kt for much of the day. Winds slowly diminish
this evening.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts up to 35kt possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR
at night. W wind gusts near 20 kt day. Gusts diminish at night.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into
early evening.

Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.

Tuesday: Rain with MVFR or lower conditions. E wind gusts near 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty NW flow becoming W on Sat. A sca is in effect for all
waters thru Sat as a result. The winds diminish Sat night and
Sun, although seas will take longer to subside on the ocean.

Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels on Monday. The next
chance for a SCA will be on Tuesday and Wednesday in a
strengthening easterly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are currently expected through the
middle of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC