000
FXUS61 KOKX 300004
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
804 PM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure east of New England will track into the Canadian
Maritimes through Saturday. A weak frontal system tracks just
south of the area Saturday night with high pressure in control
on Sunday. A weak disturbance and frontal boundary slides south
of the area Sunday night into Monday. Low pressure approaches
from the west Tuesday and reorganizes and intensifies nearby
Wednesday. The low drifts slowly to the northeast Thursday into
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For this update just a few adjustments with lowering temperatures
across the interior by a couple of degrees for the late evening,
and wind speeds for the remainder of this evening. Some wind
gusts have come in a bit stronger than previously thought.
Otherwise forecast is basically on track.
The Tri-State area will be sandwiched between departing low
pressure to our east and high pressure to the west. The
cyclonic flow over the northeast should continue to bring gusty
NW winds this evening. Gusts look to be 25-35 mph with a few
peak gusts up to 40 mph. Winds should weaken after sunset and
especially into the overnight as mixing decreases. Outlying
locations will likely see gusts end, but gusts 20-25 mph could
continue near the coast, at least occasionally. Otherwise,
cirrus canopy associated with the departing low will continue
pushing away from the region this evening. Some stratocu may
spill southeast at times, especially north and west of the NYC
metro. However, mostly clear conditions are expected tonight.
Lows will be in the 30s for most locations.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The surface pattern does not change much on Saturday with the
low pressure moving over the Canadian Maritimes and high
pressure off the to the west. The pressure gradient should be
weaker than on Friday, but there will still be enough mixing to
support some gusty WNW-W winds into the afternoon. Gusts look to
max out around 20 to potentially 25 mph. The WNW-W subsident
flow should give temperatures a boost, especially with just
partly cloudy skies through middle afternoon. Feel there is
enough evidence with the low level gusty W flow and late March
sun to allow temperatures to reach above normal levels in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Have gone closer to the 75 percentile of
the NBM for now, but it would not be surprising to see some of
the usual warmer spots reach slightly higher temps given
similar set ups in the last few years.
The only potential negating factor to the warmer temps will be
how quickly clouds move in from the west. A 500 mb shortwave
will be racing east from the Great Lakes region in the
afternoon. Mid and high cloud cover should start increasing late
with little impact on high temperatures. These clouds will
continue moving through in the evening as the shortwave nears. A
weak frontal system should pass just to our south Saturday
night. The latest model consensus grazes the southern portion of
the area, (NE NJ, NYC Metro, Long Island) with some light rain
Saturday evening. The frontal system quickly moves southeast
early Sunday morning with any rain ending. Lows will be milder
and mostly in the 40s except for the interior where upper 30s
are forecast.
Clouds will continue clearing Sunday morning as weak high
pressure builds over the northeast. NW flow looks weaker
compared to Saturday, but could still lead to temperatures
warmer than much of the guidance suite. For now have gone close
to the model consensus, but would not be surprising to see highs
end up a few degrees warmer. Current forecast highs are in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the early part of the week the main longwave pattern across
the CONUS will feature a positively tilted and deep trough in
the far SW / Intermountain West and a strong positive height
anomaly over So. Greenland into Davis Strait. By mid week energy
escapes the SW trough and lifts northeast and eventually hooks
up with northern stream energy. This should form a brief high
over low block Wed into Thu. Strong height falls over the
Central Appalachians and Northeast will lead to anomalously low
heights during this time, before the low height field is slow to
exit the Northeast Fri and into the start of the weekend. A
ridge will build across the Nation`s midsection later in the
week.
Energy gets sheared to the east in confluent flow Sun night into
Mon along a frontal boundary. Initially the boundary will
behave like a stationary front, but should get nudged a bit to
the south into Mon. The area will be on the northern edge of
light precipitation which will be primarily in liquid form,
although cannot completely rule out some light sleet or snow
mixing in across the far northern edges of the area early Mon
morning. Liquid amounts would be quite light, mainly under a
quarter inch with perhaps SW portions of the area approaching a
quarter inch by midday. Much of the global guidance is
suggestive that any light precip / mainly light rain ends for
the afternoon. High pressure way up in East-Central Canada
momentarily crest over and ridges down a bit late Mon and early
Mon night, but this looks to be short lived as the our next
system and the leading edge of its moisture gets into the Ohio
Valley Mon night. For now playing it conservative with slight
chance PoPs Mon night but it should stay primarily dry. Towards
early Tue look for precip to break out from W to E. At this time
it looks to be primarily a stratiform light to moderate rain.
However, if the system gets further north perhaps warmer air
gets more involved from the south. With blocking developing to
the north not anticipating this solution at this time. Carried
likely and categorical PoPS Tue and Tue night and only made
slight adjustments to the NBM PoPs overall.
There appears to be good agreement with northern stream energy
sliding in from the WNW and interacting with energy streaking
northeast out of the Southern Plains. This will leading to
height falls just to our west on Wed with the height fall
center getting over the area late Wed / Wed night. The 850 mb
warm front likely gets through to some degree for the first half
of Wed. Afterwards any precip could become more showery in
nature as the elevated warm front begins to get further north.
With the height falls and low pressure intensifying just off the
coast Wed have a slight chance of thunder mentioned due to less
stable lapse rates aloft. It may be cold enough (more so for
the higher elevations) to the north and northwest that some
winter precip mainly in the form of wet snow gets involved. It
is way too soon to get into any details on this, but higher
elevations may get a period of wet snow as the low deepens just
to the east and the flow out of the lower levels takes on more
of a northerly component. Otherwise for the large majority of
the area this will be primarily an all rain event. This far out
rainfall / liquid amounts look to be on the order of an inch or
so. The low will then drift away to the northeast Wed night as
PoPs decrease to chance, then slight chance into Thu.
Clouds will linger into Thu as the low continues to pivot and
rotate in clouds around its center of circulation. More breaks
in the clouds develop Thu night into Friday as the low gradually
gets further to the east. Daytime temps through the period
should average below normal, with night time temperatures
averaging right around normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Coastal low pressure tracks up the Atlantic coast today with
high pressure building in from the west.
VFR. NW winds through much of the forecast period, shifting to
the W to WSW after 18Z Saturday. Wind gusts of 30-35 kt are
still possible through 03Z tonight, but winds are expected to
slowly diminish. Gusts continue through much of the day Saturday
ending late in the TAF period, generally 21Z-00Z.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Potential peak gust of 40kt until around 03Z.
Equal chances of winds prevailing north or south of 310 magnetic
through late evening/overnight. Best guess is for winds to favor
north of 310 magnetic before around 02z, then south of it thereafter.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday night: Mainly VFR. Brief period of MVFR in low end
chance of -SHRA. Light W winds.
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: MVFR in rain possible. E-SE gusts 20-25kt.
Tuesday: IFR and rain. E gusts around 20kt.
Wednesday: IFR and rain. E-NE gusts 30-35kt possible. LLWS possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gusty NW flow will continue on the waters through Saturday
morning. Some marginal gale gusts through the first half of
tonight for the central and eastern ocean and eastern LI Sound
and maybe the eastern bays. Otherwise small craft gusts prevail.
Winds will begin falling below SCA levels on the non ocean
waters, specifically the western Sound, western LI Bays, and NY
Harbor by midday. Elsewhere, SCA conditions likely continue into
the early evening. Winds and seas subside Saturday night and
should remain below SCA levels into Sunday.
Sub small conditions and light winds take place Sunday night into
the first half of Monday. An easterly flow begins to increase later
Monday, however sub small craft conditions will likely persist
through Monday night. During Tuesday small craft conditions become
increasingly likely on the ocean waters, with marginal small craft
conditions likely for the remainder of the waters into the
afternoon. Small craft conditions are likely for the waters Tuesday
night and into mid week with ocean seas becoming elevated.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are currently expected through the
middle of next week.
More significant precipitation in terms of liquid amounts is
expected towards the middle of next week. A this time it is
too soon to estimate any potential hydrologic impacts.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
340-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for ANZ335-338-
345.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS