000
FXUS61 KOKX 301110
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
710 AM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track northeast into the Canadian Maritimes
with weak high pressure taking over today. A weak frontal
system tracks just south of the area tonight with high pressure
in control on Sunday. A frontal boundary sets up south of the
region late this weekend into the middle of next week with a
series of lows developing and moving along it. The relatively
strongest one moves northeast of the region towards the latter
of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast mainly on track but did increase cloud coverage across
parts of the interior per latest IR satellite trends.
Low pressure continues to exit over the Canadian Maritimes as high
pressure briefly takes hold in its wake.
The pressure gradient will be weaker than yesterday, but should
still be strong enough to keep NW 20-25mph gusts with us for the
morning and afternoon before subsiding in the evening. With
subsident flow and mostly sunny skies by late this morning and
early this afternoon, highs may reach the upper-50s to
lower-60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Clouds will begin to increase late afternoon into the evening ahead
of an approaching weak surface low to our west associated with a mid-
level shortwave. This will give us a quick chance for scattered
showers late evening into the early night, entering from the west
and exiting to the east. Rain totals currently sit at 0.10-0.20" for
this event.
Winds weaken and turn WSW as the low approaches. Light northwesterly
flow returns in its wake with weak high pressure returning for the
rest of the night and into the day tomorrow. Skies remain mostly
clear to partly cloudy tomorrow with highs back around the upper-50s
to lower-60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surveying the national scope of some main large scale deterministic
models for Sunday night into next week, some main patterns from the
low to upper levels are noted as described below. An important
timeframe as distinguished from the LREF grand ensemble is between
00Z Wednesday and 00Z Friday dealing with relatively speaking the
strongest of the waves of low pressure that will be moving through
the local area. The LREF grand ensemble also has relatively
higher amounts of precipitation with this feature. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty with individual 24 hour period
rainfall accumulation differences around 3 inches. This grand
ensemble also depicts the potential for some accumulating snow
across the interior with less along the coast.
Large scale upper level jet stretching from Mexico NE through Great
Lakes and Northeast Sunday night. Same general orientation continues
through Monday night. Mid levels show local area on northern
periphery of a longwave ridge. At the surface, a warm front
approaches Sunday night. The front stays south of the region
Monday with low pressure developing along it and then moves
farther south of the region Monday night. Rain will return to
the forecast during this timeframe, being most likely across
western and coastal sections early Monday as well as late Monday
night into early Tuesday.
Tuesday ridge axis moves across and then more SW flow, upper level
jet streak Mexico through Eastern Seaboard Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Mid level ridge axis moves across area Tuesday and then
east of the area Tuesday night. At the surface, a stronger wave of
low pressure develops south of the Great Lakes. An associated warm
front approaches Tuesday and stays south of the area Tuesday night.
Rain is forecast to become more widespread across much of the region.
Wednesday night through Friday, upper level jet streak stays south
of the region with the upper level low center staying north of the
area. Mid level cutoff low moves in Wednesday night into Thursday
and then moves northeast of the local region Thursday night into
Friday. Another developing wave of pressure develops south of Long
Island Wednesday and strengthens as it heads to the Gulf of Maine
Wednesday night into Thursday. The low then moves just southeast of
the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night into Friday.
Rain continues into Wednesday into Wednesday night but could
potentially mix with snow across the interior especially for
Wednesday night. There are indications of some potential for
elevated instability Wednesday into Wednesday night so low
probability of an embedded thunderstorm. Chances for rain continue
Thursday along with the possible mixing with snow across the
interior. Precipitation tapers off Thursday night with mainly
dry conditions returning Thursday night into Friday.
High temperatures forecast stay below normal, in the upper 40s to
near 50 for much of the long term forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Coastal low pressure tracks up the Atlantic coast with high
pressure building in from the west Saturday morning into
afternoon. A small disturbance from the west tracks eastward
over the region Saturday night.
VFR. NW winds through much of the day, shifting to the W to WSW
after 18Z. Wind gusts of 20-25 kt are possible today, but may
be occasional. Gusts end late, generally 18Z-00Z.
There is a chance for showers Saturday evening/early night with
brief MVFR possible in showers. Late Saturday night into Sunday
morning light NW winds return with clearing skies.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional today.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: MVFR in rain possible. E-SE gusts 20-25kt.
Tuesday: IFR and rain. E gusts around 20kt.
Wednesday: IFR and rain. E-NE gusts 30-35kt possible. LLWS possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty NW flow will continue on the waters through Saturday morning.
Winds will begin falling below SCA levels on the non ocean waters,
specifically the LI Sound, LI Bays, and NY Harbor by midday.
Elsewhere, SCA conditions may continue into the afternoon. Winds and
seas subside Saturday night and should remain below SCA levels into
Sunday.
Sub-SCA conditions Sunday night through Monday night. SCA becomes
more probable Tuesday into Tuesday night. SCA conditions become
likely for all waters Wednesday into Wednesday night with
potentially some gales for the ocean and eastern non-ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are currently expected through the
beginning of the week.
Potential for multiple rounds of heavy rain for the middle of next
week. Precipitable waters approach near 1 inch for southern
parts of the forecast region. Marginal risk of flooding for the
middle of next week, late Tuesday through Wednesday night
timeframe. Difficult to determine exact rainfall amounts at this
time with a lot of uncertainty.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ331-335-338-
345.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ332-
340.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...JM/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR