000
FXUS61 KOKX 301509
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1109 AM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will track northeast across the Canadian Maritimes
today, while weak high pressure builds in from the west. A weak
wave of low pressure then tracks just south of the area tonight
with high pressure in control on Sunday. A frontal boundary
sets up south of the region late this weekend into the middle of
next week with a series of lows developing and moving along it.
The relatively strongest one moves northeast of the region
towards the latter of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Skies have cleared out across the area with only some thin
cirrus working in from the west. This will be a mostly sunny day
with clouds lowering and thickening late. Low pressure will
continue to tracks north across the Canadian Maritimes as weak
high pressure builds in from the west.

The pressure gradient will be weaker than yesterday, but should
still be strong enough to keep NW gusts of 20-25mph into the
afternoon before subsiding in the evening. Highs are forecast to
reach the upper-50s to lower-60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Clouds will increase this evening ahead of an approaching weak
surface low to our west associated with a mid-level shortwave.
This will give us a quick chance for a period of mainly light
rain late evening into the early night, entering from the west
and exiting to the east. Rain totals currently sit at 0.10-0.20"
for this event.

Winds weaken and turn WSW as the low approaches. Light northwesterly
flow returns in its wake with weak high pressure returning for the
rest of the night and into the day tomorrow. Skies remain mostly
clear to partly cloudy tomorrow with highs back around the upper-50s
to lower-60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surveying the national scope of some main large scale deterministic
models for Sunday night into next week, some main patterns from the
low to upper levels are noted as described below. An important
timeframe as distinguished from the LREF grand ensemble is between
00Z Wednesday and 00Z Friday dealing with relatively speaking the
strongest of the waves of low pressure that will be moving through
the local area. The LREF grand ensemble also has relatively
higher amounts of precipitation with this feature. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty with individual 24 hour period
rainfall accumulation differences around 3 inches. This grand
ensemble also depicts the potential for some accumulating snow
across the interior with less along the coast.

Large scale upper level jet stretching from Mexico NE through Great
Lakes and Northeast Sunday night. Same general orientation continues
through Monday night. Mid levels show local area on northern
periphery of a longwave ridge. At the surface, a warm front
approaches Sunday night. The front stays south of the region
Monday with low pressure developing along it and then moves
farther south of the region Monday night. Rain will return to
the forecast during this timeframe, being most likely across
western and coastal sections early Monday as well as late Monday
night into early Tuesday.

Tuesday ridge axis moves across and then more SW flow, upper level
jet streak Mexico through Eastern Seaboard Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Mid level ridge axis moves across area Tuesday and then
east of the area Tuesday night. At the surface, a stronger wave of
low pressure develops south of the Great Lakes. An associated warm
front approaches Tuesday and stays south of the area Tuesday night.
Rain is forecast to become more widespread across much of the region.

Wednesday night through Friday, upper level jet streak stays south
of the region with the upper level low center staying north of the
area. Mid level cutoff low moves in Wednesday night into Thursday
and then moves northeast of the local region Thursday night into
Friday. Another developing wave of pressure develops south of Long
Island Wednesday and strengthens as it heads to the Gulf of Maine
Wednesday night into Thursday. The low then moves just southeast of
the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night into Friday.

Rain continues into Wednesday into Wednesday night but could
potentially mix with snow across the interior especially for
Wednesday night. There are indications of some potential for
elevated instability Wednesday into Wednesday night so low
probability of an embedded thunderstorm. Chances for rain continue
Thursday along with the possible mixing with snow across the
interior. Precipitation tapers off Thursday night with mainly
dry conditions returning Thursday night into Friday.

High temperatures forecast stay below normal, in the upper 40s to
near 50 for much of the long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A weak frontal system approaches from the west today, passing
near the region tonight. High pressure builds in on Sunday.

VFR through the rest of the day. Increasing cloud cover and
lowering cigs this evening with light rain developing toward
00Z. Added TEMPO for MVFR cigs after 2Z, and potential vsbys as
well. Rain tapers after 6Z Sun, with a return to VFR at all
terminals.

NW winds early this afternoon, generally left of 310 mag, back
to the W to WSW after 18Z. Speeds generally 10 to 15 kt, with
gusts up to 25 kt thru about 00Z, lightening to 5 kt tonight.
NW flow once again on Sunday, this time generally right of 310
mag, with speeds around 10 kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional today.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. NW flow around 10 kt.

Monday: MVFR in rain possible. E-SE gusts 20-25kt.

Tuesday: IFR and rain. E gusts around 20kt.

Wednesday: IFR and rain. E-NE gusts 30-35kt possible. LLWS possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Gusty NW flow will gradually subside heading into this
afternoon with winds falling below SCA levels on the non ocean
waters, specifically the LI Sound, LI Bays, and NY Harbor by
midday. Elsewhere, SCA conditions may continue into the
afternoon. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels into
Sunday.

Sub-SCA conditions Sunday night through Monday night. SCA becomes
more probable Tuesday into Tuesday night. SCA conditions become
likely for all waters Wednesday into Wednesday night with
potentially some gales for the ocean and eastern non-ocean waters.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are currently expected through the
beginning of the week.

Potential for multiple rounds of heavy rain for the middle of next
week. Precipitable water values approach 1 inch for southern
parts of the forecast region. There is a marginal risk of
flooding for the middle of next week, late Tuesday through
Wednesday night timeframe. Difficult to determine exact rainfall
amounts at this time with a lot of uncertainty.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ331-335-338-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ332-
     340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/BR/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/BR/DW
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JM/BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR