000
FXUS61 KOKX 311457
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1057 AM EDT Sun Mar 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure settles in today. Another low pressure
approaches from the west tonight, passing to the south on
Monday. A stalled front south of the area Monday night into
midweek will have lows developing along it. The relatively
strongest low develops along it in the Mid-Atlantic toward
midweek. This low traverses south of Long Island Wednesday night
and eventually off the New England coast Thursday night. High
pressure stays west of the area with low continuing to track
slowly east Friday into Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A weak 1016 mb high over Michigan quickly slides east over the
region today. This will keep dry conditions in place through
this evening, with varying degrees of cloud cover streaming east
in W/NW flow.
The final day of the month will feature temperatures running
about 5 degrees above normal, with most areas topping out in the
mid to upper 50s, and the lower 60s in the urban metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Another wave of low pressure swings by tonight into Monday.
Clouds become overcast Sunday evening. A band of strong 850mb
warm air advection and forcing approaches the area Monday
morning and afternoon. It has a northwest to southeast
orientation to it and will likely lead to higher rain totals
with periods of moderate to heavy rain. In addition, the area is
located under the left exit region of an upper-level jet
streak. Totals will range between 0.10" to 0.5" with the higher
totals concentrated in NE NJ, NYC metro and LI. PWATs will reach
around 0.9" during the peak period of forcing which is around
the 90th percentile for this time of year per SPC`s Sounding
Climatology page. Should the band of stronger forcing shift
north or south, the area of heavier rainfall and higher totals
will shift with it. This too will be a fast system, with much of
the rain ending by early afternoon. As a result, flood
benchmarks will not be reached.
Temperatures will remain above normal tonight due to the cloud
cover, but with the easterly flow and rain Monday, temperatures
will budge little. Highs Monday will be around 50, which is
several degrees below normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Long wave ridge in the mid levels will be starting place for
the local region Monday night into Tuesday. The upper level jet
pattern will be zonal. The 250mb jet streak SW to NE Pacific
into Mexico extends northeast to South Central US and then
branches into Great Lakes as well as Carolinas.
The upper level jet pattern becomes more active towards the middle
of the week coinciding with a diving strong mid level shortwave
from South Central Canada. Left front quad of the jet gets closest
to the area for late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This
cutoff low approaches the area Wednesday and eventually moves
into the Northeast Thursday into Friday, gradually making its
way east to the NW Atlantic going into next weekend.
At the surface, there will be a stalled front south of Long Island
with multiple lows developing and traveling along it Monday night
into the middle of the week. The low Tuesday night into Wednesday
looks to be the stronger one according to the consensus of forecast
model guidance. This low eventually moves northeast of the area
going into latter half of this week.
Rain is in the forecast Monday night through Thursday. Conditions
then trend drier Thursday night with dry conditions expected Friday
into Saturday. Potentially the rain could be heavy at times
especially for midweek. Elevated instability will present a
slight chance of thunderstorms as well around the middle of this
week, particularly near the coast. Wintry precipitation remains
possible as well for the interior while for the coast this
precipitation will be mainly plain rain.
Temperatures average below normal overall during the long term.
Forecast highs stay in the 40s Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
Forecast highs trend higher Friday into next weekend and get
relatively closer to normal values. Winds will become quite
gusty Tuesday night through Thursday night but at this time,
forecast values are below wind advisory thresholds.
More detailed analysis focused on the low pressure storm system
for mid to late week as well as surface winds is discussed
below.
The main feature at the surface will be the origin of cyclogenesis
Tuesday night and its subsequent evolution through mid to late week.
The models have a general consensus of depicting this low to move
northeast from the Mid-Atlantic towards New England going from mid
to late week and then slowly moving the low farther offshore.
Models have exhibited large differences from each other as well as
from the same model but from an earlier run. The low position and
movement has widely varying depictions amongst large scale
numerical weather prediction models of the GFS, ECMWF, and
Canadian models for Thursday.
An example of a significant change is within the ECMWF model which
has trended relatively weaker with this storm system for the middle
of the week. The rainfall within a 24 hour period according to the
grand ensemble still has differences between extremes amounting to
near 2.5 inches which is a half inch less than where the differences
were looking at the same grand ensemble the previous night. The same
grand ensemble also continues to convey the possibility of
measurable snow especially for interior areas.
Regarding winds, there is forecast to be an extended period of
easterly winds, building fetch and seas. There will be some minor
coastal flooding heading into midweek. See tides/coastal flooding
section for more details. Winds are forecast to become more
northeast to north Wednesday night and then northwest Thursday into
the start of next weekend. Highest forecast gusts are forecast in
the Tuesday night through Thursday night time period, with
gusts along the coast getting near 35 to 40 mph.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure centered over the Great Lakes this morning will
build east and into the area by this evening. A fast moving
wave of low pressure approaches from the west late tonight and
passes to the south on Monday.
VFR through much of tonight. MVFR to IFR develops in rain
Monday morning.
Increasing NW flow becomes WNW by this afternoon at 10-15 kt.
Occasional gusts up to 20 kt are possible late morning into the
afternoon. Chance of a brief seabreeze at KBDR this afternoon.
Winds weaken again, likely becoming variable tonight into Monday
morning. E-SE winds at 5-10 kt develop Monday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible today.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: MVFR-IFR in rain, especially in the morning and early
afternoon.
Tuesday: IFR in rain. E-ENE gusts 20-25 kt.
Wednesday: IFR in rain. E-NE gusts 25-35 kt possible. The rain could
be mixed with wet snow well inland late.
Thursday: MVFR or lower with showers possible, possibly mixed with
snow inland. NW gusts 25-35 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through Monday.
Winds and waves will trend higher Monday night but are forecast
to stay below SCA criteria.
SCA conditions become more likely Tuesday and especially going
through the midweek period. There will be potential for gales
Tuesday night through Thursday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A brief period of moderate to heavy rainfall is possible Monday
morning with totals of 0.25"-0.5" for NE NJ, NYC metro and LI. The
rain quickly exits Monday afternoon, so flood benchmarks will not be
reached.
An extended forecast period of rainfall is forecast Monday night
through Thursday. It will not rain the entire timeframe but the
bulk of the rainfall can be expected Tuesday through Wednesday
night. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times but exact
rainfall amounts cannot be determined at this time due to low
confidence. Poor drainage and low lying areas could very well
experience some minor flooding with an overall marginal flood
threat.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomically, by the middle of this week, we will be past the
halfway point between the full and the new moon cycles. There
will thus be an increase in the tidal levels around high tide.
This combined with a long period and increasing easterly flow
early to mid week will lead to more fetch and piling of water.
For some shorelines particularly across the lower NY Harbor,
South Shore Bays and Western Long Island for late Tuesday night
into Wednesday around the times of high tide, minor coastal
flooding will be possible.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/BR/DR
NEAR TERM...JM/BR/DR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...