000
FXUS61 KOKX 312007
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
407 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure slides offshore this evening. Low pressure approaches
from the west tonight, passing to the south on Monday. A series of
lows will develop along a stalled front south of the area Monday
night into midweek. The strongest of the lows develops along it
toward midweek, traversing south of Long Island Wednesday night
and eventually off the New England coast Thursday night. High
pressure stays west of the area with low continuing to track
slowly east Friday through the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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After a relatively pleasant afternoon to close the month, dry
conditions persist for just a bit longer. A weak 1016 mb high
slides over the region into this evening, and offshore tonight.

Temperatures fall back into the 40s tonight as clouds stream in
and thicken ahead of the first in a series of rainmakers this
week. Light rain may break out toward daybreak in western areas
as warm air advection advances from the south and west.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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April begins on an active note, with a stalled boundary draped
over the Mid-Atlantic and multiple associated waves of low
pressure tracking near the region over the next several days.

The first of which arrives to start the period as a band of warm
air advection and frontogenetic forcing approaches the area in
the morning hours. Guidance has been shifting the axis of
strongest forcing associated with this wave south over the last
couple of cycles, cutting back the rainfall locally. For
example, 12Z HREF halved QPF at NYC from the previous run, now
progging around a quarter inch, though some guidance like the
ECM yield no measurable precip Monday. QPF has been lowered to
reflect this shift, as were PoPs, especially north and west.
Stuck with an ensemble approach and settled on around a quarter
inch for NE NJ and NYC, quickly falling to less than a tenth of
an inch north and west of this. Still, given the trends, it
wouldn`t surprise if some locales remain entirely dry, primarily
SE CT.

Regardless of where the axis ultimately sets up, this system is
a quick mover, with much of what rain there is ending by late
afternoon. Those looking for a reprieve from the wet weather
however will be disappointed as the next wave begins to enter
the picture late Monday night. Increasing PoPs toward daybreak
Tuesday, when rain redevelops from the west.

The rain, clouds, and light onshore flow Monday will allow for
a bit cooler conditions than recent days. Afternoon highs should
get into the lower 50s for most, or just a few degrees below
normal for early April. The exception looks to be interior CT,
which may be able to achieve mid 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A broad area of low pressure will be stretched from the Ohio Valley
to the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Moisture deepens as the day
progresses, with rain continuing to spread eastward across the
forecast area. An easterly low level jet may enhance the rain
potential over coastal and eastern areas, but generally looking at
light to moderate rainfall during the day. The system doesn`t make
too much eastward progression Tuesday night as a closed 500mb low
attempts to draw the parent surface low towards it in the vicinity
of the Great Lakes. The 500mb low will however help strengthen a
secondary surface low to our south. This low is then expected to
pass through or just SE of us Wednesday afternoon into night. This
maintains categorical PoPs Tuesday night through the daytime
Wednesday. Will leave in a slight chance of thunder for Wednesday
afternoon with models showing a little elevated CAPE and forcing
from the approaching low center. Rain during Wednesday will probably
be more on the moderate side for coastal/eastern areas with a llj
remaining in the vicinity.

Precip remains likely Wednesday night as the deepening surface low
will be slow to pull away due to the influence of the lagging 500mb
low to the west. Colder air wraps in from the north with snow in the
mix for inland areas. The low pressure system is then progged to
become stacked somewhere along the New England Coast by Thursday
evening. Precip chances remain over here through Thursday with the
cyclonic flow aloft and wrap-around moisture. PoPs highest over the
northernmost zones, and still cold enough for a rain/snow mix across
the interior in the morning. Looks like a breezy day as well with a
tight pressure gradient over the area. The storm continues to slowly
move and is expected to be off the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday.
Continued cyclonic flow aloft, and with a weak cold front/trough
with just enough moisture may trigger rain showers in the
afternoon. Maybe mixed with snow in the higher elevation N and W of
the city.

Will go with a dry forecast for the weekend as high pressure slowly
builds in from the west as this storm finally shifts far enough out
to sea.

High temperatures below normal Tuesday through Friday, a little
milder on Saturday, then back to near normal for Sunday.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Weak high pressure builds across the area through this evening,
then gives way to a wave of low pressure that passes to the
south on Monday.

VFR through much of tonight. Guidance has trended farther south
with the axis of rainfall, thus there is decreasing confidence
on seeing MVFR or lower ceilings. There is a chance of MVFR in
rain, mainly in the morning Monday with the exception of KGON.
However, did go with prevailing MVFR for KTEB, KHPN, KSWF as
low-level moisture is more prevalent at this time. Should this
southward trend continue, VFR conditions may become more likely
on Monday.

WNW flow as is typical in these parts appears to be overachieving
this afternoon based on vertical wind profiles. Gusts though
should average around 20 kt, but a few higher gusts will be
possible. Winds quickly diminish this evening and become light
and variable. An ESE wind at less than 10 kt develops Monday
morning.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds left of 310 magnetic with a few gusts up to 25 kt through
late afternoon.

Confidence is decreasing for MVFR conditions on Monday.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon: Chance of MVFR, mainly north and west of the
NYC terminals.

Tuesday: IFR in rain. E-ENE G20-25 kt. The rain could be mixed
with wet snow inland Wednesday night.

Wednesday: IFR in rain. E-ENE G20-30 kt. The rain could be mixed
with wet snow inland at night.

Thursday: MVFR or lower with showers possible, possibly mixed with
snow inland. NW gusts 25-35 kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers. NW G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through
Monday night.

SCA conditions become more likely Tuesday and especially going
through the midweek period. There will be potential for gales
Tuesday night through Thursday night.

Winds and seas increase Tuesday leading to small craft conditions
developing from south to north across the waters. Gales may even be
possible on the ocean Tuesday night, with a better chance of this on
Wednesday as low pressure approaches the waters. Can`t rule out the
the threat of gales on some of the other waters as well on
Wednesday. Gusty offshore winds are expected on Thursday and
Thursday night with SCA conds anticipated during this period. For
Friday, winds drop off a little with SCA conditions probably limited
to the ocean waters, but still possible over the eastern Sound and
bays.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Rain amounts from late Monday night through Thursday may be in the
range of 1.50 to 2.50 inches. Poor drainage and low lying areas
could very well experience some minor flooding, but anything more
impactful would be a low chance, mainly because of the long duration
of time the rain amounts would occur. This also takes into
consideration current flash flood guidance. Periods of heavier
rainfall are more likely to occur Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomically, by the middle of this week, we will be past the
halfway point between the full and the new moon cycles. There
will thus be an increase in the tidal levels around high tide.
This combined with a long period and increasing easterly flow
early to mid week will lead to more fetch and piling of water.

For some shorelines, particularly across the lower NY Harbor,
South Shore Bays, and Western Long Island for late Tuesday
night into Wednesday around the times of high tide, minor
coastal flooding will be possible.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...