000
FXUS61 KOKX 012049
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
449 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary south of the forecast area will be the focus
for the development of areas of low pressure through Tuesday
night. The frontal system moves through the region Wednesday
into Thursday morning, then meanders along the New England coast
through Friday night. The low moves east Saturday through early
next week as high pressure builds to the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Dry to mostly dry conditions expected for the first half of
tonight as a weak area of low pressure tracks east along a
frontal boundary that is located well south of the area. A stray
shower cannot be ruled out through around 8 pm. Weak high
pressure from southeastern Canada briefly builds in. However,
chances for rain increase after midnight, and especially towards
daybreak as another weak low that develops over the Ohio Valley
pushes east. The front edge of the precipitation makes its way
into western areas by daybreak Wednesday.
Clouds will help keep above normal for this time of year, with
lows in the upper 30s to middle 40s expected.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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The chances for precipitation will increase and rain will become
more widespread from early Tuesday morning onward. Models are
in fairly good agreement with isentropic lift increasing in the
morning into the afternoon as the weak low ejects off the
Delmarva peninsula. This will mean an period of moderate
rainfall for the area, which could be briefly heavy at times.
This area of moderate rainfall will affect the western half of
the forecast area during the morning, and eastern half during
the late morning and afternoon hours Tuesday. There may be a
brief respite, or rainfall will be light for the first half of
Tuesday night before another batch of moderate rain moves into
western portions of the forecast area once again.
Additionally, a low level jet will increase Tuesday night, with 50
to 60 kt between 950 and 900 hPa. This will help in enhancing the
precipitation along with introducing breezy conditions toward
daybreak. Easterly winds at daybreak Wednesday will be 20 to 25
mph sustained with gusts to 25 to 30 mph.
Clouds and rain will keep high temperatures below normal for
this time of year. Highs will only be in the upper 40s to around
50. Lows will once again be above normal due to cloud coverage,
ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Main points
* Strong coastal low developing Wednesday, moves east to
northeast Wednesday night into Thursday.
* This low will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall
with a marginal flood threat Wednesday. With minor urban and
poor drainage flooding possible.
* Winds will increase and become gusty Tuesday through
Wednesday. Winds will be east with the highest winds and gusts
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Winds could be as
high as 20 to 30 mph, with gusts 40 to 45 mph, with peak
gusts 45 to 50 mph. Winds diminish and become northeast
Wednesday night.
* Minor coastal flooding benchmarks may be approached late
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning at a few south shore back bay
locations. A better chance of reaching minor coastal flooding
along the south shore will be with the late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning high tide cycle. Minor flooding
will also be possible in the western Sound during the early
morning high tide cycle.
No significant changes were made to the forecast for Wednesday
through Monday. There is less confidence that there will be any
thunder in the area as the area will be strongly capped through
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Depending on where the upper
low tracks, and how far inland the surface warm front will
influence the chances for thunder. At this time the better
chances for thunder will be across the southern areas, and may
be confined to over the ocean.
With a large upper low becoming closed and the upper trough
nearly cutoff, as an omega pattern sets up, the surface low
meanders along the New England coast into late in the weekend,
before shifting east as another trough digs along the eastern
Canadian coast. Dry weather is expected into Monday as high
pressure builds slowly in from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak low pressure passes to the south today. High pressure
briefly takes hold this evening before another wave of low
pressure arrives on Tuesday.
VFR today. Light rain that was around this morning has pushed
offshore and dry conditions are expected for remainder of the
day. Conditions should decline across the board Tue AM as
steady rain returns, MVFR cigs likely toward 12Z or just
thereafter in the city, spreading east to other terminals by
18Z. IFR likely for most terminals by early afternoon.
Light flow generally out of the NE and E today. Direction may
be variable at times. A more sustained ENE direction becomes
established Tuesday AM as speeds increase to btwn 10 and 15 kt
by late morning. Gusts 20-25 kt thereafter thru the day.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Light winds will allow more variability in direction today.
Timing of category declines on Tuesday may be off by a few hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday PM: IFR in rain. E-ENE G20-25 kt.
Wednesday: IFR in rain. E-ENE G20-30 kt. The rain could be mixed
with wet snow at KSWF.
Thursday: MVFR or lower with lingering rain, possibly mixed with
wet snow at KSWF. NW gusts 25-35 kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers inland. NW G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions expected on all waters through tonight.
Increasing easterly flow on the harbor, western and central
ocean zones, the south shore bays, and western sound have
prompted SCA for Tuesday afternoon. As easterly winds increase
later for eastern areas, SCA is not needed for Tuesday. However,
as winds continue to increase, a Gale Watch was issued for all
waters for Tuesday night through the first half of Wednesday
night as a low level jet increases over the forecast area, bring
winds of 35 to 40 kt. Waves increase beginning Tuesday and
continuing into Tuesday night to 4 to 8 ft on the ocean, and 3
to 5 ft on the sound and into east portions of lower NY harbor.
Gale conditions look to be likely across all the waters
Wednesday, especially in the afternoon, and a gale watch has
been posted for Wednesday into Wednesday evening. As the low
begins to move east Wednesday night winds and seas will be
quickly diminishing with a period of SCA conditions into early
Thursday on the non ocean waters, and SCA conditions remain on
the ocean waters through Friday, and possibly into Friday
evening. Conditions are then sub SCA late Friday night into
Saturday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected tonight through Tuesday
night.
Around 1.5 to 3 inches of rain is forecast from late tonight
through Thursday. There will be two rounds of more significant
rainfall, one Tuesday, with 0.5 to 0.75 inches possible, and
another Wednesday into Wednesday evening with 1 to 1.5 inches
possible, when moderate to briefly heavy rainfall is possible.
There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall during Wednesday
with poor drainage flooding and urban and low lying flooding
possible.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomically, by the middle of this week, we will be past the
halfway point between the full and the new moon cycles. There
will thus be an increase in the tidal levels around high tide.
This combined with a long period swell and increasing long fetch
easterly flow will lead to increased water piling.
Local minor flooding benchmarks may be reached, or just
touched, late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning along the
south shore bay backs. A better chance to reach minor flooding
along the south shore will be with the late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning high tide cycle. And minor flooding
will also be possible across the western Sound with the early
Thursday morning high tide cycle.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
for ANZ331-332-340-350.
Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ335-
338-345-353-355.
Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night
for ANZ335-338-345-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MET