000
FXUS61 KOKX 041746
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near Cape Cod tracks northeast along the New
England coast today. This low will remain near eastern New
England on Friday, then exit east into the Atlantic Saturday
into Sunday. High pressure will return on Monday. A back door
cold front may approach from the northeast Tuesday into
Wednesday as a weakening frontal system approaches from the
west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated the fcst to increase pops this aftn and tngt as shwrs
develop across wrn areas. Cold enough aloft so mentioned a
slight chance for sleet and snow as well. No accums expected,
but some mixing is likely. Also, areas of lgt rain continue on
the backside of the low in ern zones, so included that in the
update too.
Highs today run below normal for early April as colder air
advects down in the NW flow. Soundings prog 850 mb temps falling
to around -5C this afternoon, which should translate to 40s for
most and low 50s in the urban NYC metro, about 5 to 10 degrees
below normal. Overnight lows fall back into the 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An omega block over North America translates slowly east on
Friday. Surface low pressure meanders along coastal New England
as the upper low is slow to depart. The cyclonic flow should
keep skies more cloudy than not, with perhaps some scattered
shower activity developing during the day, though not a washout.
Temperatures top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
As the associated upper low starts to move southward with a leading
spoke of mid level vorticity moving across late Fri night, chances
for light rain/snow showers should increase inland Fri evening, and
mainly E of NYC late Fri night into Sat.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes in long term thinking. Precip chances
should come to an end by Sat night, and Sunday looks dry with
partly sunny skies across S CT/Long Island and mostly sunny
skies to the west.
Noticeably milder wx arrives on Mon with high pressure sfc and
aloft building in, with high temps mostly in the lower/mid
60s, except upper 50s across ern Long Island and along south
facing shorelines. Model fcsts also continue to show a mid level
shortwave trough to the west riding atop the upper ridge axis
Mon afternoon, which could produce a fair amt of high clouds
during the time of the solar eclipse.
Fcst details become more uncertain beyond Mon night as guidance
shows the upper ridge strengthening a little, while a closed low
drops SE across the Canadian Maritimes, which should send a
back door cold front toward the area from New England, and an
upper low either approaches the western Great Lakes or gets
shunted into central Canada. Splitting the difference between
the GFS and ECMWF on timing of any back door cold fropa, with
Tue on the mild side (a few deg warmer than Mon) and somewhat
cooler temps for Wed, also slight chance PoP from Tue night into
Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deep low pressure moves along the New England coast through
tonight as a trough of low pressure from the low moves across
the region this evening into tonight. The low weakens along the
Maine coast Friday.
Generally MVFR ceilings persist into early this evening with
periods of VFR possible. Timing of improvement to VFR is
uncertain this evening as a trough moves through the terminals,
with a slight chance of rain showers along the coast and
rain/snow showers inland, with MVFR possible. Behind the trough
VFR ceilings are likely to remain into Friday morning.
NW to N winds remain into this evening, with gusts more
occasional through this afternoon, before ending. Late tonight
winds back to W/NW and increase with gusts 20-25kt developing
Friday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible through this evening for changing flight
categories, and a chance of rain showers, with moderate
confidence.
Timing of onset of frequent W/NW wind gusts Friday morning may
be earlier than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday afternoon: VFR. Slight chance of rain shower with local
MVFR. W/NW flow around 15kt, gusts 20-25kt.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance of rain and snow showers. N/NW wind
gusting 20-25kt.
Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA continues on the ocean through at least Friday night due to
elevated seas as low pressure meanders off the New England
coast. Some gusts up to 25 kt are also possible on the non ocean
waters Fri afternoon/evening. SCA cond also possible in N flow
on the ern ocean waters late Sat night into Sunday morning as
low pressure finally pulls away to the east.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
While additional showers are expected across the region today and
Friday, the threat for flooding from heavy rain has come to an
end.
A few streams in NE NJ may continue to rise due to excess runoff
from earlier rainfall but significant hydrological issues are
not expected into early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A few spots may just touch minor with the Friday morning high
tide. The main concern will be along the South Shore Bays of
Long Island. With the last high tide cycle falling well short of
the forecast, will allow the day shift to re-evaluate the need
for any additional headlines.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...JMC/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/BG/DR
HYDROLOGY...DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...