000
FXUS61 KOKX 042009
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
409 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will slowly track away from the region through Friday,
stalling near Downeast Maine Friday night. The low then dissipates
while working farther offshore on Saturday, eventually getting
absorbed into a larger area of low pressure out over the western
Atlantic. High pressure then gradually builds in from the west
Sunday into Monday. A back door cold front may approach from the
northeast Tuesday into Wednesday as a weakening frontal system
approaches from the west into Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Breaks of sun over swrn portions of the cwa should lead to weak
instability into the early eve. LAPS indicates SBCAPE just sw
of the cwa in NJ at 18Z. Expect this to expand newd. At the same
time, the upr low will continue to approach from the se,
traversing the area right around 6Z. As a result, expect isold-
sct shwrs to develop thru this eve, especially wrn areas where
there is more instability. Temps aloft are cold, so any
convection could produce some ip/sleet, and deeper convection
should introduce ice crystals and may allow for some snow to
mix in. No accums expected, but did include a mention of snow
and sleet in the fcst. In addition, an isold lightning strike
cannot be ruled out as well due to the ice. There have been a
few strikes this aftn invof the upr low in PA.

Pcpn chances decrease late tngt, but kept a slight chance in for
pockets of dpva in the flow. Activity expected to be less robust due
to weaker lapse rates late tngt.

The NBM was followed for temps tngt, but trended the numbers cooler
most spots for the hourlies into the early eve based on cloud cover.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As the upr low reaches ME on Fri, another spoke of energy is progged
to rotate into the cwa in the aftn and eve from the N. Temps
are cold aloft, so sct convective pcpn seems probable. The NBM
keeps the coasts dry, but this seems a bit unrealistic given the
setup. Have therefore gone abv NBM pops for Fri aftn into the
early eve. Kept pcpn all rain for now, but around -6C at h85 so
perhaps some ip. Chances for isold tstms is related. Have held
off for now but if this setup holds, expect at least isold
coverage Fri aftn.

The NBM was used for temps both Fri and Fri ngt, with minor
adjustments Fri ngt in the typical Hudson Valley warm spot.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The upper air pattern will feature a blocky pattern that
translates slowly east through the week. At the onset, an upper
low will be featured along the New England coast, with another
over the central Plains. Ridging between the two systems will
work east and into the area Sunday into Tuesday, getting reinforced
by a backdoor cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. This
will be short-lived though as the ridge flattens along the east
coast mid week and large scale warm advection ensues with rain
chances increasing Wednesday into Thursday.

In the meantime, temperatures over the weekend will be near
normal for lows, but a bit cooler in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Cyclonic flow and plenty of clouds will limit max heating
during these days, but also limit cooling. Gusty NW flow on
Saturday will diminish on Sunday as the winds become more
northerly and high pressure builds in behind weakening low
pressure east of New England. Monday and Tuesday will be
considerably warmer as highs rise through the 50s and in some
cases into the lower 60s, especially away from the water. A
brief cool down is possible behind a backdoor cold front Tuesday.
This will be short-lived as the front returns northward late
Wednesday into Thursday ahead of another frontal system
approaching from the west.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Deep low pressure moves along the New England coast through tonight
as a trough of low pressure, from the low, moves across the region
this evening into tonight. The low weakens along the Maine coast
Friday.

Generally VFR ceilings persist into this evening with periods of
MVFR possible. There is a slight chance of rain showers along the
coast and rain/snow showers inland. Isolated sleet is possible,
however, with low confidence have not included in the forecast.
Behind the trough VFR ceilings are likely to remain into Friday
morning.

NW to N winds remain into this evening, with gusts more occasional
through this afternoon, before ending. Late tonight winds back to
W/NW and increase with gusts 20-25kt developing Friday morning.

     ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible through this evening for changing flight
categories, and a chance of rain showers, with moderate confidence.

Timing of onset of frequent W/NW wind gusts Friday morning may be
earlier than forecast.


OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday afternoon: VFR. Slight chance of rain shower with local MVFR.
W/NW flow around 15kt, gusts around 20kt.

Saturday: VFR. N/NW wind gusting 20-25kt.

Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Marginal SCA winds thru Fri on the ocean and ern waters. A SCA
has been issued for the ocean where seas will be at criteria,
but have not issued for the other waters where it would be just
based on wind. Included a mention of ocnl 25kt gusts on the ern
Sound, with gusts around 20kt elsewhere. For Fri ngt, seas on
the ocean may linger in the 3-6 ft range. Confidence a little
lower on that, so did not extend the SCA thru Fri ngt attm.

Marginal SCA conditions will still be possible Saturday into
Saturday night in the NW flow behind departing low pressure. The
flow weakens Sunday as high pressure builds in from the west.
Sub-SCA conditions will continue into the beginning of next
week.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Hydrologic impacts are not expected through the period.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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The latest modeling indicates a very low probability that a few
spots may just touch minor with the Friday morning high tide.
Because of this, no statements have been issued.

In addition, with the approach of a new moon (April 8),
increasing astronomical tides and an easterly swell from
offshore low pressure could produce some minor coastal
flooding. Stay tuned.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC/DW