000
FXUS61 KOKX 050003
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
803 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly track away from the region through Friday,
stalling near Downeast Maine Friday night. The low then dissipates
while working farther offshore on Saturday, eventually getting
absorbed into a larger area of low pressure out over the western
Atlantic. High pressure then gradually builds in from the west
Sunday into Monday. A back door cold front may approach from the
northeast Tuesday into Wednesday as a weakening frontal system
approaches from the west into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Some shower activity across the NYC metro will move ESE over
the next few hours, perhaps impacting western sections of LI,
but mainly offshore. Rainfall amounts will be light. Wet bulb
values support mainly rain, but an ice pellet or snow flake
can`t completely be ruled out as the airmass dries and cools.

Pcpn chances decrease late tngt, but kept a slight chance in for
pockets of dpva in the flow. Activity expected to be less robust due
to weaker lapse rates late tngt.

The NBM was followed for temps tngt, but trended the numbers cooler
most spots for the hourlies into the early eve based on cloud cover.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As the upr low reaches ME on Fri, another spoke of energy is progged
to rotate into the cwa in the aftn and eve from the N. Temps
are cold aloft, so sct convective pcpn seems probable. The NBM
keeps the coasts dry, but this seems a bit unrealistic given the
setup. Have therefore gone abv NBM pops for Fri aftn into the
early eve. Kept pcpn all rain for now, but around -6C at h85 so
perhaps some IP. Chances for isold tstms is related. Have held
off for now but if this setup holds, expect at least isold
coverage Fri aftn.

The NBM was used for temps both Fri and Fri ngt, with minor
adjustments Fri ngt in the typical Hudson Valley warm spot.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A blocky upper air pattern will translate slowly east through the
week. At the onset, an upper low will be featured along the New
England coast, with another over the central Plains. Ridging
between the two lows will work east and into the area Sunday into
Tuesday, getting reinforced by a backdoor cold front Tuesday night
into Wednesday. This will be short-lived though as the upper ridge
flattens along the east coast mid week and large scale warm advection
ensues with rain chances increasing Wednesday into Thursday.

In the meantime, temperatures over the weekend will be near
normal for lows, but a bit below for highs. Cyclonic flow and
plenty of clouds will limit max heating during these days, but
also limit nighttime cooling. A brief shower can`t be ruled out
for Saturday, especially across eastern LI and SE CT due to the
closer proximity to the departing upper low. Gusty NW winds
Saturday will diminish on Sunday as the winds become more northerly
and high pressure builds in from the west. Monday and Tuesday
will be considerably warmer as highs rise through the 50s and in
some cases into the lower 60s, especially away from the coast. A
brief cool down is possible behind a backdoor cold frontal passage
Tuesday night. This will be short-lived though as the front returns
northward as a warm front late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of
another frontal system approaching from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deep low pressure moves along the New England coast, as a
trough extending from the low moves across the region tonight.
The low weakens along the Maine coast Friday and Friday night as
the trough lingers nearby.

Generally VFR ceilings prevail into this evening with a few pockets
of MVFR possible. There is a slight chance of rain showers along the
coast and rain/snow showers inland. Isolated sleet cannot be ruled
out, however, with low confidence have not included in the
TAFs. VFR ceilings are likely to remain into Friday, with mainly
BKN040- 050 ceilings towards 14-15z and remaining through the
day.

N winds up to 10 kt early tonight. Later tonight the winds back to
the NW, then W and increase with gusts 20-25kt developing Friday
morning. Gusts to around 25 kt out of the WNW

     ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible through this evening for changing flight
categories, and a chance of rain showers, with moderate confidence.

Timing of onset of frequent W/NW wind gusts Friday morning may be
earlier than forecast.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: VFR. W/NW wind around 7-10kt.

Saturday: VFR. N/NW wind gusting 20-25kt.

Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Marginal SCA winds thru Fri on the ocean and ern waters. A SCA
is in effect for the ocean where seas will be at criteria for
tonight. Gusts come back up late tonight and will be right
around 25 kt on the ocean and around 20 kt elsewhere. For Fri
ngt, seas on the ocean may linger in the 3-6 ft range.
Confidence a little lower on that, so did not extend the SCA
thru Fri ngt attm.

Marginal SCA conditions will still be possible Saturday into
Saturday night in the NW flow behind departing low pressure. The
flow weakens Sunday as high pressure builds in from the west.
Sub-SCA conditions will continue into the beginning of next
week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrologic impacts are not expected through the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
The latest modeling indicates a very low probability that a few
spots may just touch minor with the Friday morning high tide.
Because of this, no statements have been issued.

In addition, with the approach of a new moon on Monday, April 8,
increasing astronomical tides and an easterly swell from offshore
low pressure could produce some minor coastal flooding Sunday into
Monday. In some cases, departures of only 1/2 ft or less are
needed to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$Stay tuned.


SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...