000
FXUS61 KOKX 050329
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1129 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly track away from the region through Friday,
stalling near Downeast Maine Friday night. The low then dissipates
while working farther offshore on Saturday, eventually getting
absorbed into a larger area of low pressure out over the western
Atlantic. High pressure then gradually builds in from the west
Sunday into Monday. A back door cold front may approach from the
northeast Tuesday into Wednesday as a weakening frontal system
approaches from the west into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Some shower activity now exiting the Jersey shore and moves ESE
over the next few hours mainly out over the ocean and mainly
offshore, with a few spots further south perhaps getting clipped
to the east. Rainfall amounts will be light. Wet bulb values
support mainly rain, but an ice pellet or snow flake can`t
completely be ruled out as the airmass dries and cools.
Pcpn chances decrease later overnight, but kept a slight chance
in for pockets of dpva in the flow. Activity expected to be
less robust due to weaker lapse rates later in the overnight.
The NBM was followed generally for temps overnight, but trended
more towards ConShort in the hourlies for more cloud cover
overall.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As the upr low reaches ME on Fri, another spoke of energy is
progged to rotate into the cwa in the aftn and eve from the N.
Temps are cold aloft, so sct convective pcpn seems probable. The
NBM keeps the coasts dry, but this seems a bit unrealistic
given the setup. Have therefore gone abv NBM pops for Fri aftn
into the early eve. Kept pcpn all rain for now, but around -6C
at h85 so perhaps some IP. Chances for isold tstms is related.
Have held off for now but if this setup holds, expect at least
isold coverage Fri aftn.
The NBM was used for temps both Fri and Fri ngt, with minor
adjustments Fri ngt in the typical Hudson Valley warm spot.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A blocky upper air pattern will translate slowly east through
the week. At the onset, an upper low will be featured along the
New England coast, with another over the central Plains. Ridging
between the two lows will work east and into the area Sunday
into Tuesday, getting reinforced by a backdoor cold front
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will be short-lived though as
the upper ridge flattens along the east coast mid week and
large scale warm advection ensues with rain chances increasing
Wednesday into Thursday.
In the meantime, temperatures over the weekend will be near
normal for lows, but a bit below for highs. Cyclonic flow and
plenty of clouds will limit max heating during these days, but
also limit nighttime cooling. A brief shower can`t be ruled out
for Saturday, especially across eastern LI and SE CT due to the
closer proximity to the departing upper low. Gusty NW winds
Saturday will diminish on Sunday as the winds become more northerly
and high pressure builds in from the west. Monday and Tuesday
will be considerably warmer as highs rise through the 50s and in
some cases into the lower 60s, especially away from the coast. A
brief cool down is possible behind a backdoor cold frontal passage
Tuesday night. This will be short-lived though as the front returns
northward as a warm front late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of
another frontal system approaching from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deep low pressure moves along the New England coast, as a trough
extending from the low moves across the region tonight. The low
weakens along the Maine coast Friday and Friday night as the trough
lingers nearby.
Other than a few pockets of brief MVFR conditions for the next few
hours, VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.
A few brief rain showers along the coast and rain/snow showers
inland for the next few hours. Otherwise SCT to BKN at mainly 035-
050 overnight. VFR ceilings are likely to remain into Friday, with
mainly BKN040-050 ceilings towards 14-15z and remaining through the
day.
The winds overnight back from N / NW to the W, and increase with
gusts 20-25kt developing Friday morning. Gusts to around 25kt out of
the WNW Friday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of onset of frequent W/NW wind gusts Friday morning may be
earlier than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: VFR. W/NW wind around 7-10kt.
Saturday: VFR. N/NW wind gusting 20-25kt.
Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Marginal SCA winds thru Fri on the ocean and ern waters. A SCA
is in effect for the ocean where seas will be at criteria for
tonight. Gusts come back up late in the overnight and will be
right around 25 kt on the ocean and around 20 kt elsewhere. For
Fri ngt, seas on the ocean may linger in the 3-6 ft range.
Confidence a little lower on that, so did not extend the SCA
thru Fri ngt attm.
Marginal SCA conditions will still be possible Saturday into
Saturday night in the NW flow behind departing low pressure. The
flow weakens Sunday as high pressure builds in from the west.
Sub-SCA conditions will continue into the beginning of next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrologic impacts are not expected through the period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The latest modeling indicates a very low probability that a few
spots may just touch minor with the Friday morning high tide.
Because of this, no statements have been issued.
In addition, with the approach of a new moon on Monday, April 8,
increasing astronomical tides and an easterly swell from offshore
low pressure could produce some minor coastal flooding Sunday into
Monday. In some cases, departures of only 1/2 ft or less are
needed to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JE
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...