000
FXUS61 KOKX 051109
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
709 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deep low pressure will slowly drift east from coastal Maine
today into the western Atlantic through the weekend. High
pressure builds over the region on Monday, shifting offshore
into Tuesday. A back door cold front may approach from the
northeast late Tuesday into Wednesday, before a frontal system
impacts the region from the west late next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cyclonic flow regime across the region as large and strong stacked
low spins over Maine, slowly filling, but sending a series of
shortwaves through the region over the next 48 hrs. Next shortwave,
pivoting thru the eastern Great Lakes early this morning, will
swing ese towards and thru the region late this morning into
afternoon.

This regime will maintain cloudy skies, with scattered diurnal shower
development this afternoon. Boundary layer appears warm enough
areawide for plain rain for the coastal plain. Across interior
(particularly above 500 ft), some sleet, graupel or wet snow could
mix in with evaporative cooling in any isolated heavier shower
activity.

Weak instability into the mixed phase region, indicate a low and
isolated potential for tstm activity with pea size hail and gusty
winds to 40 mph. Highest probability across interior.

Cloud cover, cold pool aloft, diurnal shower activity and gusty NW
winds will make for unseasonably chilly conditions, with highs in
the mid 40s interior and around 50 coast (5 to 10 degrees below
seasonable).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Good model agreement in deep stacked low over coastal Maine this
evening slowly filling and drifting east through the Gulf of Maine
on Saturday and into the open Atlantic on Sunday. Before the large
closed low finally exits on Monday, it will keep cyclonic flow
with two distinct shortwaves pivoting through the area Saturday
and Sunday aft, keeping unsettled and unseasonably cool
conditions over the area.

Drying conditions tonight in wake of shortwave, but close proximity
of stacked low will keep mid clouds persistent. Cloud cover and
mixed low-levels in breezy NW flow will actually keep temps near
seasonable.

Cloudy conditions and another round of isolated to scattered diurnal
shower activity likely late Sat AM into afternoon with shortwave
pivoting through (highest prob across NE zones). Mid levels
look slightly drier and mid-level inversion slightly lower than
today, which should result in relatively less shower activity.
Instability also looks to remain below mixed phase region,
limiting threat for isolated thunder. Low probability for some
sleet, graupel or wet snow to mix in across interior with any
isolated heavier shower activity.

Better potential for some partial clearing Sat Night in wake of
shortwave. Temps will remain near seasonable with mixed low-level,
but potential for some outlying areas to see a bit of radiational
cooling to near freezing.

Final distinct shortwave moves through on Sunday with cloudy
conditions, and potential for isolated shower activity (mainly east).

Decent agreement on cyclonic flow relenting Sunday night as closed
upper low slides offshore, and high pressure building in. Clearing
skies and good radiational cooling conditions across outlying
area expected Sunday Night with temps falling below freezing.
Near 40 for the NYC/NJ metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Ridging aloft centered over the Eastern US will favor dry conditions
early to mid next week, before gradually shifting east into late
week. A 1020 mb surface high pressure sits over the region to start
the period. Clear skies likely to start Monday, though, as it
appears at the moment, a relatively thin veil of high clouds
will be advancing east during the afternoon Monday as a warm
front lifts toward the region from the south and west.

The center of the high slips off the Carolina coast Tuesday, with a
SW flow developing. Soundings indicate H85 temps should climb to
near +10C, and with mixing should allow for a seasonably warm
afternoon. Sea breezes may limit coastal temperatures a bit, but
highs should top the upper 60s or lower 70s away from this influence.

A strong shortwave diving south into the North Atlantic from
Maritime Canada may send a backdoor front through the region late
Tuesday or Wednesday, lowering temperatures midweek. Meanwhile,
the ridge in place locally is able to begin translating east,
ahead of the next trough approaching from the west that will
bring a return to rain chances by late next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Deep low pressure meanders along the New England coast into
Saturday, with an associated trough extending south across the
region.

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with cigs today
around 5 kft. Can`t rule out a quick hitting shower or two
during the afternoon, especially KSWF, but coverage and duration
should remain brief if it were to occur.

Winds back to the WNW this morning, and speeds increase with
gusts 20 to 25kt developing after 12Z. These gusts persist thru
this evening before potentially becoming more occasional tonight
into Sat AM. Speeds increase back to around 15G25kt during the
day on Saturday, with direction becoming NNW.

     ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts may be off by an hour or two. Gusts may be more
occasional tonight.

Direction may hang near 310 mag much of today.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR. NNW wind gusting 20 to 25 kt.

Sunday: VFR. N wind gusting 20 kt.

Monday through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Pressure gradient tightens this morning around deep low pressure over
the Gulf of Maine, likely producing marginal SCA NW wind gusts on
all waters this afternoon. Gusts likely subside just below SCA
tonight for nearshore, but may pick up to marginal SCA once
again during the day Sunday. Winds then likely weaken from w to
e all waters Sat Night into Sun Am.

On the ocean, 2-3 ft easterly swells gradually subside through
tonight. Otherwise, marginal SCA ocean seas, dominated by NW
wind waves will continue through Saturday.

Sub SCA conditions likely return from w to e late Sat Night into
Sunday AM. Relatively tranquil conditions Sunday Night into Monday
as high pressure builds over the waters. Sub-SCA conditions
persist through mid next week in a weak pressure regime.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrologic impacts are not expected through Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water level expected to remain below minor flood thresholds through
Saturday morning high tides.

A new moon on Monday, April 8, with spring tides building in. There
is potential for localized minor flooding with the late Sat and
Sun AM high tides. Better chance of localized minor with Sun
and Mon PM spring tides, as tidal departures needed for minor
drop as low as 1/4 ft and Ekman effects from offshore low
increase water levels along the entire coast.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DR/NV
HYDROLOGY...DR/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...