000
FXUS61 KOKX 052017
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
417 PM EDT Fri Apr 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will remain stalled along the Maine coast tonight,
before drifting south and weakening on Saturday. The low will
then get absorbed into a deepening low farther out in the western
Atlantic Saturday night. High pressure builds over the region
on Monday, shifting offshore into Tuesday. A back door cold
front may approach from the northeast late Tuesday into early
Wednesday, before a frontal system impacts the region from the
west for the second half of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Isold to sct shwrs should continue to rotate in from the NW this
eve. LAPS indicates some low SBCAPE, generally less than 100 J/kg,
but with the vort max coming thru, this looks to be enough for
convective development. Instability upstate looked a little
higher, so with no lightning reported there all day, will keep
it out of the fcst. An isold tstm still cannot be ruled out, but
feel it is more of a 10 percent chance rather than the 20
generally required for the grids.

Will continue to go abv the NBM pop guidance for this event. The NAM
and 9Z SREF were completely dry for the entire fcst area, but there
has already been pcpn reported in Orange county.

A lack of instability, along with the exit of the upr lvl energy,
should equate to rapidly diminishing pcpn chances aft 00-01Z.

The NBM with the typical local adjustments was used for temps.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The vertically stacked low over ME drifts swd on Sat, ending up E of
Cape Cod around 18Z, and E of the benchmark Sat ngt. DPVA with the
sys could result in shwrs across ern portions of the cwa,
particularly the Twin Forks and ern CT. Short-term model pops
are pretty high with this, up to around 50 percent along the RI
border. Still, pops remain in the chance category. The energy
is progged to be too far E by Sat ngt for pcpn to develop across
the cwa, especially with downslope llvl flow.

A breezy NW flow along with high temps around 50 can be
expected. Lows in the 30s Sat ngt with wind chills in the 20s
and 30s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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An early springtime pattern will feature multiple cutoff lows
during this time, one departing off the Northeast coast, another
over the Northern Plains, and a third spinning up over the Four
Corners Region. Ridging between all these systems will build
across the eastern third of the country with quiet conditions
and a considerable warmup for the forecast area, especially
away from the immediate coast. Stayed close to the NBM guidance
during this time, but global models do vary in the timing and
interaction of the western upper lows and the associated frontal
system that impacts the area for the second half of the week.
A consensus approach seemed prudent at this time.

Rain chances begin to creep up late Tuesday into Wednesday as
large scale warm advection kicks in on the backside of the upper
ridge. At this time, this doesn`t look like much rain and may
be more of an increase in clouds than anything. A much more
robust frontal system impacts the area Wednesday into Friday,
with warm advection in a deep-layered southerly flow, followed
by warm sector convection Thursday into Thursday night. Both the
GFS and ECMWF are showing rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches at
this time, so this something to watch as we get closer to the
event.

Temperatures Sunday into Sunday night will be a few degrees
below normal, but then warmup Monday into Tuesday. Locations
north and west of the NYC metro could get up to around 70 by
Tuesday afternoon, but of course due to the maritime influence
at this time of year, readings near the coast will be in the
60s and 50s, coldest along the south shore oceanfront and twin
forks of LI.

A backdoor cold front looks to pass through the area late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. The easterly flow and increase in
cloud cover will drop temperatures back into the 50s for
everyone. Readings will then gradually warm back up Thursday as
the region becomes warm sectored ahead of an approaching cold
front.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep low pressure meanders along the New England coast into
Saturday.

VFR, except brief MVFR cigs possible at KSWF until early this
evening.

WNW gusts around 25 kt this afternoon, subsiding closer to 20 kt
this evening and returning back to around 25 kt shortly after
12-13z Sat. Winds will veer more NW-NNW by around 12z Sat.


     ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts are more likely to prevail south/left of 310 magnetic
until around 03z, then north/right of it thereafter.

Gusts may be only occasional tonight.


OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: VFR. NNW wind gusting around 25 kt.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday through Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR with rain and LLWS possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
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Gusty NW flow thru into Sat. The SCA was extended on the
protected waters thru tngt. For Sat, cond are expected to
improve, so maintained the SCA on the ocean for the early mrng
but did not extend. Mrgnl winds and seas, so there could be the
need for an extension, or issued Sat ngt as well as seas creep
back up.

Expect sub-SCA conditions Sunday through Tuesday as high pressure
builds across the waters. A backdoor cold frontal passage late
Tuesday into early Wednesday will be followed by a strengthening
easterly flow. At this time, winds and seas look to stay below
criteria on Wednesday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Hydrologic impacts are not expected at this time. However, a
potential frontal system at the end of next week could bring
moderate to heavy rainfall to the region. It is too early to
give specific amounts.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels will increase through the upcoming weekend with the
approach of the the new moon, which is Monday, April 8. There
is potential for localized minor flooding with the late Sat and
Sun AM high tides, but a better chance of Sun and Mon PM, as
tidal departures needed for minor drop as low as 1/4 ft and
Ekman effects from offshore low increase water levels along the
entire coast.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//