000
FXUS61 KOKX 052355
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
755 PM EDT Fri Apr 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain stalled along the Maine coast tonight,
before drifting south and weakening on Saturday. The low will
then get absorbed into a deepening low farther out in the western
Atlantic Saturday night. High pressure builds over the region
on Monday, shifting offshore into Tuesday. A back door cold
front may approach from the northeast late Tuesday into early
Wednesday, before a frontal system impacts the region from the
west for the second half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Some spotty showers continue to wrap around the upper low and
move in from the NW. Any showers and/or sprinkles will be brief
and light. At any time over the new few hours, there could be a
sprinkle (maybe a snowflake inland). Chances will diminish with
the loss of daytime instability.

Otherwise, weakening low pressure along the Maine coast will
remain nearly stationary. NW winds will occasionally gusts to
around 20 mph.

Lows will range from the mid 30s inland, to around 40 across
the NYC metro. This is close to normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The vertically stacked low over ME drifts swd on Sat, ending up E of
Cape Cod around 18Z, and E of the benchmark Sat ngt. DPVA with the
sys could result in shwrs across ern portions of the cwa,
particularly the Twin Forks and ern CT. Short-term model pops
are pretty high with this, up to around 50 percent along the RI
border. Still, pops remain in the chance category. The energy
is progged to be too far E by Sat ngt for pcpn to develop across
the cwa, especially with downslope llvl flow.

A breezy NW flow along with high temps around 50 can be
expected. Lows in the 30s Sat ngt with wind chills in the 20s
and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An early springtime pattern will feature multiple cutoff lows
during this time, one departing off the Northeast coast, another
over the Northern Plains, and a third spinning up over the Four
Corners Region. Ridging between all these systems will build
across the eastern third of the country with quiet conditions
and a considerable warmup for the forecast area to start the
week, especially away from the immediate coast. Stayed close to
the NBM guidance during this time, but global models do vary in
the timing and interaction of the western upper lows and the
associated frontal system that impacts the area for the second
half of the week. A consensus approach seemed prudent at this
time.

Rain chances begin to creep up late Tuesday into Wednesday as
large scale warm advection kicks in on the backside of the upper
ridge. At this time, this doesn`t look like much rain and may
be more of an increase in clouds than anything. A much more
robust frontal system impacts the area Wednesday into Friday,
with warm advection in a deep-layered southerly flow, followed
by warm sector convection Thursday into Thursday night. Both the
GFS and ECMWF are showing rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches at
this time, so this something to watch as we get closer to the
event.

Temperatures Sunday into Sunday night will be a few degrees
below normal, but then warmup Monday into Tuesday. Locations
north and west of the NYC metro could get up to around 70 by
Tuesday afternoon, but of course due to the maritime influence
at this time of year, readings near the coast will be in the
60s and 50s, coldest along the south shore oceanfront and twin
forks of LI.

A backdoor cold front looks to pass through the area late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. The easterly flow and increase in
cloud cover will drop temperatures back into the 50s for
everyone. Readings will then gradually warm back up Thursday as
the region becomes warm sectored ahead of an approaching cold
front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deep low pressure meanders along the New England coast into Saturday,
before starting to pulling away later in the weekend.

VFR prevails through the TAF period.

WNW gusts subsiding closer to 20 kt for the first half of the night
and returning back to around 25 kt towards 12-13z Sat. Winds will
veer more to the NNW around 12z Sat.

     ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts are more likely to prevail south/left of 310 magnetic until
around 03z, then north/right of it thereafter.

Gusts may be only occasional late tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: VFR. N wind around 10-15 kt, with gusts around 20 kt
early.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday through Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR with rain and LLWS possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gusty NW flow thru Sat. SCA all waters overnight. Mrgnl winds
and seas on Sat, so there could be the need for an extension,
or issued Sat ngt as well as seas creep back up.

Expect sub-SCA conditions Sunday through Tuesday as high pressure
builds across the waters. A backdoor cold frontal passage late
Tuesday into early Wednesday will be followed by a strengthening
easterly flow. At this time, winds and seas look to stay below
criteria on Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrologic impacts are not expected at this time. However, a
potential frontal system at the end of next week could bring
moderate to heavy rainfall to the region. It is too early to
give specific amounts.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will increase through the upcoming weekend with the
approach of the the new moon, which is Monday, April 8. There
is potential for localized minor flooding with the late Sat and
Sun AM high tides, but a better chance of Sun and Mon PM, as
tidal departures needed for minor drop as low as 1/4 ft and
Ekman effects from offshore low increase water levels along the
entire coast.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...