000
FXUS61 KOKX 061107
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
707 AM EDT Sat Apr 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure will slowly drift east from coastal Maine today
into the western Atlantic through Monday. High pressure builds over
the region on Monday, and to the south on Tuesday. A back door
cold front pushes through from the north and east late Tuesday
into early Wednesday, before a frontal system affects the
region from the west through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Good model agreement in deep stacked low over Gulf of Maine
this AM slowly filling and drifting southeast along the New
England coast today, and to the SE of Cape Cod tonight.
Meanwhile, its surface low slides south similarly, but gradually
gets absorbed by a developing offshore low.
Broad cyclonic flow continues around the low over the NE US,
with a strong shortwave over northern NY/Central New England
early this morning pivoting through the area late this morning
into afternoon, and another weaker one pivoting through tonight.
This setup will have considerable diurnal cloud cover developing
once again. Early timing of shortwave relative to peak diurnal
heating should keep shower activity relatively isolated this
morning into afternoon. The exception being across far SE CT
and twin forks of LI, where strengthening low-level jet around
southward sinking surface low will likely have scattered shower
activity glancing these areas in the aft thru eve. Scattered
shower activity may continue into the tonight across these far
eastern areas until the next weaker shortwave slides through.
Low probability for some sleet, graupel or wet snow to mix in
across highest elevations tonight.
Elsewhere, for much of the region, drying conditions and partial
clearing this evening. Temps will remain near seasonable with mixed
low-levels and cloud cover tonight, but potential for some western
outlying areas to see a bit of radiational cooling to near freezing
with breaks in clouds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Good model agreement in offshore upper low continuing to drift east
into Western Atlantic Sunday thru Monday, with upper ridging
gradually building east into the area Sun Night into Monday.
At the surface, coastal wave absorbs into large offshore low by
Sunday morning, with surface high pressure gradually building in
from the west Sunday Night and to the south on Monday.
Cyclonic flow gradually relents in wake of one final shortwave
pivoting through Sunday aft. Partly cloudy (west) to mostly cloudy
(east) diurnal cloud cover in response. With continued drying of
the column, the shower threat should be very limited.
Clearing skies and good radiational cooling conditions across
outlying area expected Sunday Night with temps falling below
freezing. Near 40 for the NYC/NJ metro area.
Dry and seasonably mild conditions for Monday with developing return
flow. Only a bit of cirrus potential streaming over ridge axis.
Temps likely reaching lower to mid 60s for much of the region,
except upper 50S for immediate south coasts with afternoon sea
breeze development. Outside of urban centers, particularly pine
barrens, temps could drop a few degrees during partial eclipse
between 3-4pm, but otherwise not anticipating any significant
sensible weather anomalies.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging in place over the Eastern US to start the period.
Surface high pressure off the Southeast coast continues to
shift out into the Atlantic Tuesday, with SW flow advecting in
a warmer air mass. Soundings peg H85 temps near +10C, which will
allow for a seasonably warm afternoon for many, with afternoon
temperatures into the upper 60s or lower 70s away from the
water. Due to the maritime influence at this time of year,
readings near the coast will be in the 60s and 50s, coldest
along the south shore oceanfront and twin forks of LI.
A strong shortwave diving south into the North Atlantic from
Maritime Canada may send a backdoor front through the region
late Tuesday or Wednesday, lowering temperatures some midweek.
Meanwhile, the ridge in place locally is able to begin
translating east, ahead of the next trough approaching from the
west that will bring a return to rain chances by late next week.
Ensemble means paint a widespread 1 to 2 inches at this point,
with the bulk Thursday and Thu night along and ahead of the
associated cold front.
A weak cold front looks to backdoor us late Tuesday and drop
temperatures back into the low to mid 50s by Wednesday. Rain
chances then begin to climb on the warm advection on the
backside of the upper ridge. At this time, this doesn`t look
like much rain and may be more of an increase in clouds than
anything. A much more robust frontal system impacts the area
Wednesday into Friday, with warm advection in a deep-layered
southerly flow, followed by warm sector convection Thursday into
Thursday night.
An early springtime pattern will feature multiple cutoff lows
during this time, one departing off the Northeast coast, another
over the Northern Plains, and a third spinning up over the Four
Corners Region.
A backdoor cold front looks to pass through the area late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. The easterly flow and increase in
cloud cover will drop temperatures back into the 50s for
everyone. Readings will then gradually warm back up Thursday as
the region becomes warm sectored ahead of an approaching cold
front.
Capped PoPs at 60% given discrepancies in the timing and
interaction of the western upper lows and the associated frontal
system, otherwise stayed fairly close to national blended
guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure meanders along the New England coast today, before
starting to pulling away on Sunday.
VFR prevails through the TAF period.
WNW flow becomes NNW this morning with more consistent gusts
returning by mid morning. Speeds will be similar to Friday,
15G25kt thru this evening. Gusts should mostly subside after 3Z
Sun, and flow turns northerly with speeds near 10 kt, and
potential gusts around 20 kt on Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds are more likely to prevail north/right of 310 magnetic
today.
Gusts on Sunday may be more occasional.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. N 20 kt gusts.
Monday through Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower with rain and LLWS possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Marginal SCA NW wind gusts likely on all waters this afternoon,
subsiding below SCA nearshore this evening and ocean waters
overnight. S/E swells continue to subside on the ocean this
morning, with marginal SCA seas likely subsiding below 5 ft this
afternoon.
Expect sub-SCA conditions Sunday through mid next week. Wind
and seas likely begin to increase Wed night into Thursday with
strengthening SE flow ahead of an approaching frontal system.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system expected to track through the region late Wed
through Friday next week could produce a moderate to heavy rainfall.
It remains a bit too early to resolve specific amounts or potential
hydro impacts.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will increase through the upcoming weekend with the
approach of the the new moon, which is Monday, April 8. Water levels
will approach the minor flood thresholds this evening, but likely
stay below in most spots. There is potential for localized minor
flooding with Sun AM high tides, but a better chance of Sun and Mon
PM, as tidal departures needed for minor drop as low as 1/4 ft and
Ekman effects from offshore low increase water levels along the
entire coast.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DR/NV
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DR/NV
HYDROLOGY...DR/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...