discussion on 2024-04-06

000
FXUS61 KOKX 062001
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
401 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --Upper low off the New England coast will continue to move further
offshore tonight. High pressure will gradually build into the region
tonight through Monday. High pressure early to mid next week will
give way to a complex frontal system that will then approach
the region. An associated warm front moves across Wednesday into
Wednesday night. An associated strong cold front approaches
Thursday eventually moves across before next weekend. The front
and associated low both move east of the area thereafter.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Dry conditions and partial clearing this evening. Temperatures will
be in the 30s to near 40 tonight with winds diminishing to a light
northerly breeze.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Drier air filters in on Sunday as surface high pressure gradually
builds from the west Sunday night.

Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 50s. Wind will not be as
gusty, but there will still be a northerly breeze. Clearing skies
and good radiational cooling conditions across outlying area
expected Sunday night with temperatures falling below freezing. Near
40 for the NYC/NJ metro area.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --From some large scale deterministic weather prediction model
outputs, the overall main synoptic pattern depicts ridging aloft
early to midweek following a by a deepening trough approaching the
area mid to late week. The synoptic flow becomes more amplified out
of the south. The pattern appears to change Friday night into
Saturday of next week with an negatively tilted trough moving across
and eventually east of the region.

At the surface, high pressure will be in place and build in Monday
through Tuesday. Aloft, there will be supporting ridging and
confluence to keep high pressure established. Then, high pressure
will move east of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Parent low
develops and deepens with an associated warm front that develops and
moves through Wednesday into Wednesday night. The associated cold
front will then approach and will be strong as the parent low
pressure further deepens Thursday into Thursday night. The front
moves across sometime Friday into Friday night. There is uncertainty
here with models depictions of the parent low and the speed of the
cold front. GFS is faster and showing cold front passage Thursday
compared to the ECMWF which is showing the cold front passage not
until Friday night.

Dry conditions to start early in the week will be followed by the
return of rain to the forecast starting around midweek and
continuing through Friday. Both heavy rain and thunderstorms are a
possibility with a strong cold front within the Thursday through
Friday night timeframe. Synoptic winds overall are increasing in
this timeframe as well so gusty winds look probable. The
thunderstorms possibilities are seen from the near zero to slightly
negative Showalter Indices within this timeframe and strong dynamic
lift depicted by the numerical large scale weather prediction models.

Temperatures overall in the long term are forecast to average above
normal. Only relatively cooler time periods appear to be Wednesday,
which is the only day in the long term forecast to have temperatures
a few degrees below normal. Next Saturday has forecast high
temperatures near to slightly above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure meanders along the New England coast this evening
begins to move away from the coast through Sunday.

VFR through the TAF period. Spotty -RA possible into early this
evening at KGON.

NNW flow continues into tonight. Speeds will be 15-20 kt with gusts
20-30 kt. Winds and gusts will weaken after 00z with gusts likely
ending around 04z. The flow will become N into Sunday morning with
gusts 15-20 kt returning middle to late morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts 30-35 kt possible through 22z.

End time of gusts tonight may be off by 1-2 hours.

Gusts on Sunday may be occasional.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Afternoon-Night: VFR. N 20 kt gusts possible in afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR possible with chance of showers. E gusts 15-20 kt
possible.

Thursday: MVFR or lower with showers likely. SE gusts 25-30 kt.
LLWS possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --SCA in effect on all waters, subsiding below SCA nearshore this
evening and ocean waters overnight and into Sunday morning.
Expect sub-SCA conditions Sunday.

High pressure in control, keeping sub-SCA conditions Monday through
Tuesday night. Then, increasing onshore flow may potentially lead to
an eventual return of SCA wind gusts for eastern ocean waters
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Forecast has a higher likelihood of
SCA gusts Thursday through Thursday night with gales also possible
as well.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --Heavy rain possible Thursday through Friday night of next week. Too
much uncertainty for forecast rainfall amounts at this time. Too
early to determine exact flood impacts also beyond that of minor
flooding for low lying and poor drainage areas.-- End Changed Discussion --

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will increase through the upcoming weekend with the
approach of the the new moon, which is Monday, April 8. Water levels
will approach the minor flood thresholds this evening, but likely
stay below in most spots. There is potential for localized minor
flooding with Sun AM high tides, but a better chance of Sun and Mon
PM, as tidal departures needed for minor drop as low as 1/4 ft and
Ekman effects from offshore low increase water levels along the
entire coast.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.