000
FXUS61 KOKX 070020
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
820 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low off the New England coast will continue to
move farther offshore tonight. High pressure will then gradually
build in through Monday and remain into Tuesday night. A complex
frontal system will then approach, with the associated warm
front lifting through Wednesday into Wednesday night, and an
associated strong cold front approaching on Thursday and
eventually moving across before next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Made some minor adjustments with regards to PoP for rain showers
as well as temperatures and dewpoints to better match with
observed trends. Far NW and eastern sections of the region could
get a few very light rain showers or sprinkles early this
evening. This would be for interior parts of NE NJ, the Lower
Hudson Valley, and SE CT as well as Twin Forks of Long Island.
The min temperature forecast was not changed.
Dry conditions and partial clearing expected for late this
evening into the overnight. Temperatures will be in the 30s to
near 40 tonight with winds diminishing to a light northerly
breeze.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Drier air filters in on Sunday as surface high pressure
gradually builds from the west Sunday night.
Highs on Sunday will be in the lower/mid 50s. Wind will not be
as gusty, but there will still be a northerly breeze.
Clearing skies and good radiational cooling conditions across
outlying areas expected Sunday night, with temperatures falling
below freezing. Lows near 40 for the NYC/NJ metro area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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From some large scale deterministic weather prediction model
outputs, the overall main synoptic pattern depicts ridging
aloft early to midweek following a by a deepening trough
approaching the area mid to late week. The synoptic flow becomes
more amplified out of the south. The pattern appears to change
Friday night into Saturday of next week with an negatively
tilted trough moving across and eventually east of the region.
At the surface, high pressure will be in place and build in
Monday through Tuesday. Aloft, there will be supporting
ridging and confluence to keep high pressure established. Then,
high pressure will move east of the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Parent low develops and deepens with an associated
warm front that develops and moves through Wednesday into
Wednesday night. The associated cold front will then approach
and will be strong as the parent low pressure further deepens
Thursday into Thursday night. The front moves across sometime
Friday into Friday night. There is uncertainty here with models
depictions of the parent low and the speed of the cold front.
GFS is faster and showing cold front passage Thursday night
compared to the ECMWF which is showing the cold front passage
not until Friday night.
Dry conditions to start early in the week will be followed by
the return of rain to the forecast starting around midweek and
continuing through Friday. Both heavy rain and thunderstorms
are a possibility with a strong cold front within the Thursday
through Friday night time frame. Synoptic winds overall are
increasing in this timeframe as well so gusty winds look
probable. Thunderstorms may be possible with zero to slightly
negative Showalter indices within this time frame and strong
dynamic lift depicted by the numerical large scale weather
prediction models.
Temperatures overall in the long term are forecast to average
above normal, except for Wednesday, which when temps should be a
few degrees below normal. Next Saturday has forecast high
temperatures near to slightly above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR as low pressure meanders out over the Atlantic well east of
New England.
NNW flow around 15 kt with a few gusts over 20 kt should
continue into this evening, then diminish to near or just under
10 kt overnight. N flow 10-15G20kt resumes late Sunday morning
and should continue until late afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night through Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: MVFR possible with chance of showers. E winds
G15-20kt. .
Thursday: MVFR or lower with showers likely. SE winds G25-30kt.
LLWS possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Still have quite a few reports nearshore of wind gusts within
SCA range. Left SCA the same as before, with the non ocean
zones running until 11 PM this evening, and the ocean until 8 AM
Sunday.
Thereafter, high pressure will gradually build in, with a
weakening pressure gradient and sub-SCA conditions through
Tuesday night.
Increasing onshore flow may potentially lead to an eventual
return of SCA cond for the eastern ocean waters Wed into
Wed night. Forecast has a higher likelihood of SCA cond Thu into
Thu night, with gales also possible as well.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Heavy rain possible Thursday through Friday night of next week.
Too much uncertainty for forecast rainfall amounts at this
time. Too early to determine exact flood impacts also beyond
that of minor flooding for low lying and poor drainage areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels will increase through the weekend with the approach
of the the new moon on Monday. Water levels will approach minor
flood thresholds this evening, but likely stay below in most
spots. There is potential for localized minor flooding with
Sun AM high tides, and a better chance of Sun and Mon PM, as
tidal departures needed for minor drop as low as 1/4 ft, and
Ekman effects from the offshore low increase water levels along
the entire coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...20/JM
NEAR TERM...20/JM
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...20/JM
HYDROLOGY...20/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...